New England Patriots

W2W4: New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is ready for the Arizona Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

What to watch for in Week 1 as the New England Patriots face off against the Arizona Cardinals.

The New England Patriots are off to Phoenix Stadium to open their 2016 season against the Arizona Cardinals. The Sunday night prime time nationally televised tilt is the Patriots’ first visit to Arizona to play the Cardinals since 2004. The Patriots had two games in Arizona playing Super Bowl 42 (17-14 loss to the Giants in 2008) and Super Bowl 49 (28-24 win over the Seahawks) in 2015.

The Cardinals are coming off an impressive 13-3 regular season that was marred by a 49-15 loss in the NFC Championship game against the Carolina Panthers (Patriots fans can be excused for having forgotten the game as they were no doubt still seething about Von Miller having almost single-handedly ended their season in the earlier game that January Sunday afternoon). Arizona finished with the second best scoring offense last year and were seventh in scoring defense (the stats were marred by a blowout 36-6 loss in week 17 where the Cardinals seemed disinterested against Seattle).

The Cardinals are a difficult test for Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo with their strong secondary and blitz-heavy schemes. The Patriots’ defense will be tested by the dynamic duo of running backs David and Chris Johnson and their passing attack featuring Carson Palmer and his impressive trio of wide receivers.

Having not played a meaningful game since January both teams are anxious to start the regular season. As always, we will examine each team’s match-ups in the passing game and running game and let you know who has the advantage. The article closes with the summary and prediction.

Let’s get right into the preview with what to watch for on both sides of the ball on Sunday night:

New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo needs to be on the top of his game Sunday night. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

New England Passing Offense vs Arizona Pass Defense

The biggest change in New England on offense will be the lack of number twelve behind center. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo steps in to fill-in for Tom Brady while Brady serves his ridiculous “Deflategate” suspension. Garoppolo has never started a game in the NFL and has just 31 regular season pass attempts over two seasons.

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Garoppolo will have a huge disadvantage if left tackle Nate Solder (questionable – hamstring injury — did not travel on team charter to Arizona on Friday) is not back to protect his blindside. Solder was injured last season and seemed to tweak his hamstring in the final preseason game. If he does not play the team will likely have either Cameron Fleming or LaAdrian Waddle starting at left tackle (UPDATE: Solder has been ruled out).

The other tackle position will likely be manned by Marcus Cannon while veteran Sebastian Vollmer is on the PUP List with a knee/hip injury. Cannon struggled at the end of last season playing on a broken toe that robbed his agility and ability to push off and drive. Cannon has been more comfortable on the right side rather than the left side and will likely stay on the right side if Solder does not play

The Cardinals counter with a familiar face in the pass rush with defensive end/linebacker Chandler Jones. Jones will be counted on to generate pass rush for Arizona after the Patriots traded him there this offseason. Jones struggles against better tackles and was notorious for disappearing in the playoffs.

He will be looking to get some payback against his former team and will have rookie Robert Nkemdiche around to help with the pass rush–if Nkemdiche can get on the field. He is currently buried behind Rodney Gunter, Frostee Rucker and Josh Mauro on the depth chart. Calais Campbell is one of the few linemen in Arizona capable of generating consistent pressure on the quarterback.

Arizona brings pressure via the blitz and with different players as only one player had more than five sacks last season (the departed to Atlanta Dwight Freeney). To counter the blitz in the passing game the Patriots need to involve tight ends Rob Gronkowski (questionable – hamstring injury — did not travel on team charter to Arizona on Friday) and Martellus Bennett and receiving running back James White on quick dump-off routes in space and let them overpower or make a defender miss and grab chunks of yardage.

Having two tight-ends and White on the field gives Garoppolo safe,short-passing options that can make Arizona pay for blitzing. The loss of Gronkowski for the game would change the entire offense (UPDATE: Gronkowski has been ruled out). No team blitzed more than the Cardinals last season and Garoppolo has to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers and let them make big plays in order to get the offense down the field and into the end zone.

The Cardinals will try to match-up with Bennett and White with athletic safety Deone Bucannon and the inside linebackers. Do not be surprised to see Tyrann Mathieu move from covering Julian Edelman in the slot and help out with Bennett or shadow White if they have success early.

Both Bucannon and Mathieu have freakish athleticism and surprising strength to wrap-up and make tackles and safety DJ Swearinger will also be involved in coverage at times as well. If Garoppolo can get the ball to Bennett and White in the screen game early on, it should open things up for the other New England pass catchers.

With rookie wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell on the injury report still as he recovers from his elbow injury, it is up to the offseason surgery trio of Julian Edelman (foot), Danny Amendola (knee and ankle) and Chris Hogan (shoulder) to shoulder the load. Hogan will likely see a lot of superstar cornerback Patrick Peterson outside the numbers.

If the Patriots can force Tyrann Mathieu having to help Deone Bucannon in keeping up with the tight end or running back, it could leave rookie cornerback Brandon Williams and recently acquired from Kansas City backup cornerback Marcus Cooper chasing Amendola and Edelman as young veteran Justin Bethel may not be able to play due to injury.

For the Patriots, Gronkowski is at an advantage against any defense and with Bennett on the field it can only help prevent double and triple coverage. He and Solder and Cooper not playing would limit the Patriots’ explosiveness and protection. The lack of depth at cornerback hurts Arizona as Peterson cannot cover everyone.

If Garoppolo stays away from him he should find options in good match-ups in the passing game. A few screens to White to slow the pass rush would help the young quarterback in his first career start and slow down the aggressive blitzes dialed up by the Cardinals.

ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND

Next: New England Rushing Offense vs Arizona Rush Defense

New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount may have a big workload. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

New England Rushing Offense vs Arizona Rush Defense

Watching local sports television (i.e. watching videos on social media) and listening to local sports radio, the “experts” have repeatedly emphasized how the Patriots need to protect Garoppolo by running the football against the Cardinals. These “experts” could not be more off-base. The Patriots are built to throw the football and regardless of who is at quarterback the Patriots need to get the ball in the hands of their play-makers if they want to beat Arizona on the road at night on opening weekend.

Just to appease the “experts”, here is a rundown of the Patriots rushing attack in 2008 when they played all but one quarter without Tom Brady: Sammy Morris–727 yards rushing; Kevin Faulk–507 yards rushing; LaMont Jordan–363 yards rushing; BenJarvus Green-Ellis–275 yards rushing; and Laurence Maroney–93 yards rushing (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted). People, that is not a dangerous group and the eleven wins were more a result of their two 1,000 yard receivers (Randy Moss and Wes Welker).

The Patriots will run the ball if only to slow the Arizona blitzes and hopefully to get a key block to spring a big play. Left guard Joe Thuney, center David Andrews and right guard Jonathan Cooper (assuming he starts against his former team as he is questionable with a foot injury and did not travel with the team to Arizona on Friday) will be tasked with battling in the trenches with the big bodies for Arizona in defensive tackles Corey Peters, Rodney Gunter and Frostee Rucker (if healthy enough to play–he is on the injury report with a neck injury). These players do not just eat space–they devour running backs. The Cardinals were sixth in the NFL against the run in 2015 and allowed less than 4.0 yards per rushing attempt on the season.

The Patriots will lean on running back LeGarrette Blount again when they try to run the football and with the return of fullback James Develin (who missed all of 2015 with a broken leg), the Patriots should have a little extra toughness for when they want to run between the tackles. Provided he is not starting with Solder out, New England can also bring in right tackle Cameron Fleming as a tight end in big packages to help seal defenders off and make space for Blount.

Arizona throws waves of athletic players into gaps in the running game with linebacker/safety hybrid Deone Bucannon and linebacker Kevin Minter key contributors in their slowing opposing running games. Safety DJ Swearinger can come up and help and Patrick Peterson is a complete cornerback who is not just excellent in coverage but comes up and contributes with closing speed and sure tackling in the running game.

New England will not lose the game if they cannot run the ball, but being able to stay out of negative plays and breaking off a big play in the running game could be advantageous. Running the ball into the strength of the Cardinals’ defense is not the way to try to win the game for the Patriots.

ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

Next: Arizona Passing Offense vs New England Pass Defense

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is going to be a handful for the New England secondary. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Passing Offense vs New England Pass Defense

The Cardinals got a career year out of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer last season as he threw for 4,671 yards, completed 63.7 percent of his passes and 35 touchdowns with just 11 interceptions. Palmer has three lethal weapons in his trio of wide receivers in veteran Larry Fitzgerald (1,2153 yards receiving), Michael Floyd (849 yards receiving) and John Brown (1,033 yards receiving). Each plays a different role in the offense as Brown is the deep threat, Fitzgerald is the savvy possession receiver who often works the middle of the field and Floyd primarily outside the numbers. This is one of the most dangerous trios of wide receivers in the league and can attack defenses in a variety of ways–especially vertically down the field.

The Patriots will have to have their cornerbacks primed and ready to cover as Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan and Cyrus Jones will have their hands full with the big, strong, and speedy receivers in Arizona. Butler will likely spend time chasing Fitzgerald while Ryan locks up Floyd and rookie Jones will have to get help from safeties Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon over the top to prevent these big plays down the field.

Stopping theses receivers is near impossible; slowing them down is what the defense has to do. Of course, the Cardinals can also throw out receiving tight end Jermaine Gresham and running back David Johnson who can also contribute in the passing game. The Patriots will lean on their duo of young, athletic linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower to slow Johnson out of the backfield. Safety Patrick Chung can help out with cover Gresham (who is the answer to the trivia question of “What tight end was drafted ahead of Rob Gronkowski in the 2010 NFL Draft?)

The surest way to slow the explosive Arizona passing attack is to pressure Carson Palmer. With a strong interior, the best bet is to try to exploit tackles Jared Veldheer and DJ Humphries. Neither is a dominant tackle and the Patriots can roll out their top pass rushers from the edge with defensive ends Chris Long, Jabaal Sheard, and Trey Flowers.

Long has been a revelation in the preseason looking to gained his his quick first step after two years marred by injury. He needs to carry that momentum into the regular season. Sheard was injured early in the preseason and will be leaned on to bring pressure from the edge. Finally, second year pass rusher Trey Flowers (if he plays as he is questionable with a shoulder injury) may get his chance to contribute in the regular season. He could bring fresh legs and energy off the bench if he is able to go.

New England can bring pressure from other spots on the field and look for defensive tackle Anthony Johnson to bring pressure up the gut as the third down interior rusher. In addition, expect to see different formations where the Patriots use linebackers Barkevious Mingo, Shea McClellin, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower to blitz and disrupt the Arizona passing game.

Arizona is going to have the advantage against almost every team in the NFL in the passing game (except maybe division rival Seattle); however, the Patriots have rebuilt their defense adding impact players each of the past three seasons. They may be one of the few teams in the league capable of matching up on defense.

ADVANTAGE: NONE

Next: Arizona Rushing Offense vs New England Rush Defense

Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson is poised for a breakout season. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Rushing Offense vs New England Rush Defense

The Arizona Cardinals–as a complement to their vertical passing attack–have a solid duo at running back in running backs David Johnson and Chris Johnson. David Johnson is the darling of the fantasy football set as he wowed in his rookie season averaging 4.6 yards per carry and catching 36 passes for 457 yards. He is expected to expand his role in 2016.

Behind him is veteran Chris Johnson who bounced back with a strong 2015 season gaining 814 yards before fracturing his tibia and missing the final five games of the season. He should be back at full strength and gives the Cardinals two excellent running backs to pound away. With both running backs sharing carries there are usually fresh legs late in the game when they need to run out the clock.

Former New England Patriots tight end Darren Fells is one of the best run blocking tight ends in the NFL and is an understated part of the the running game’s success in Arizona. Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard will have to deal with him on the outside of the defense when Arizona runs. Fells’ ability to seal the edge plays a key role in springing big runs.

In the trenches the battle will feature veteran guards Evan Mathis (with Denver last year after years of success in Philadelphia) and former 49ers guard Mike Iupati. They should be locked up with New England defensive tackles Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown when the Cardinals are trying to run the ball. Those individual battles will go a long way towards determining whether the Patriots can slow the Arizona rushing attack.

New England also has linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower in the middle of the field filling gaps and locking up the ball carriers. Safety Patrick Chung will also be playing a key role in run support and the Patriots will have to lock up the running backs and prevent yards after contact (a problem at times in the preseason) in order to keep the Cardinals from controlling the clock and the game with the ground attack.

Last year (including the playoffs) the Cardinals were just 4-4 when rushing for 115 yards or less as a team in a game. When rushing for over 115 yards as a team in a game they were 10-0. The running game for Arizona gets the opposing safeties up near the line of scrimmage and sets up big plays in their vertical passing attack. Keeping the Cardinals in second and third and long situations takes them out of their comfort zone and limits big scoring plays.

Stopping the run is a must for the Patriots against the Cardinals.

ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

Next: SUMMARY AND SCORE PREDICTION

Fans in New England are concerned about Jimmy Garoppolo taking the reins Sunday night. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

SUMMARY AND SCORE PREDICTION

The Patriots have a tough road game to open 2016. With starters Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Jonathan Cooper, Sebastian Vollmer, Rob Ninkovich, and Nate Solder out it makes an already a tough match-up that much more difficult. By playing without all of them it makes it almost impossible to predict a win on the road. The Cardinals are going to be loud, aggressive, and attacking on both sides of the ball.

Arizona has big-play receivers, explosive running backs, and Carson Palmer playing the best football of his career. The first team offense struggled in the preseason and may start slow, but the offense can put together long, clock-killing drives and also strike quick. Their versatility makes them so dangerous.

New England has Jimmy Garoppolo having to face the blitz-happy Cardinals. Patrick Peterson is arguably one of the best cornerbacks (and punt returners) in the NFL. One mistake by Garoppolo and the Cardinals could have six points on the board without the ir offense taking the field.

New England has to limit their own turnovers (difficult with a ball-hawking defense like the Cardinals and with a quarterback making his first NFL start) and the defense is going to have to make more than one big play. Turnovers, big plays on special teams, or Arizona beating themselves has to happen for the Patriots to get a win on the road.

It’s not that it is impossible, but it will be difficult. I do not think it happens this week.

FINAL SCORE: ARIZONA 21 – NEW ENGLAND 20

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