Buffalo Bills

W2W4: New England Patriots (6-1) Defense vs Buffalo Bills (4-3) Offense

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 3:53 p.m. ET

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New England Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler is playing at a high level. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The New England Patriots are readying for their second of two big road games: last week against Pittsburgh on the road and travelling to Buffalo on Sunday to face the only team who defeated them in the 2016 season.

Buffalo is coming off a horrendous loss to Miami made worse by bad decision-making by head coach Rex Ryan leading to him likely not having his top offensive playmaker. Ryan risked playing offensive star LeSean McCoy against Miami last Sunday with a hamstring injury.

McCoy left the game in the second half after an ineffective first half and re-aggravating his hamstring. Rather than resting McCoy against Miami and getting him healthy, Ryan focused on the short-term single game rather than the long-term slate of games this season.

With McCoy not practicing all week and listed as doubtful (although very unlikely to play), the Bills are now likely to have no McCoy to go along with no Marquise Goodwin (concussion symptoms). With former first round draft pick Sammy Watkins on still injured reserve the Patriots are catching the Bills at a point where they are short on explosive players.

MusketFire.com’s W2W4 (What to Watch for) weekly feature looks to give you the best analysis of the upcoming game. For your convenience, we will break the feature up into two parts over the weekend. Yesterday, we examined the New England offense against the Bills’ defense. Today it is the Bills’ offense against the Patriots’ defense.

So without further delay, let’s get to the match-ups for the Bills’ passing offense against Patriots’ passing defense, the keys to to the game, and then the Bills’ rushing offense facing the Patriots’ rushing defense.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS PASSING DEFENSE VS BUFFALO BILLS PASSING OFFENSE

Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor has played well against the New England Patriots. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills have had difficulties keeping their wide receivers healthy in 2016. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins is their best overall wide receiver and he has been on injured reserve and out with a foot injury after playing just two games.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s accuracy is down from last year as his completion percentage is just 60.4% (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted). Taylor is averaging just 185 yards passing per game but he has played smart with nine touchdown passes and just two interceptions this season.

Part of the problem with Taylor and the Bills passing attack has been the lack of weapons.

Track star Marquise Goodwin flashed some big play ability making headlines beating Darrelle Revis on Thursday night in week two. Since that one big catch, he was quiet until last week in Miami when he stepped-up with four catches for 92 yards and a touchdown–before leaving the game with a concussion.

Goodwin has already been ruled out for Sunday and the Bills’ leading receiver in 2016–Robert Woods–is fighting through a foot injury of his own and did not play last week, but likely to play on Sunday. Former Patriots wide receiver Greg Salas was also shuffled to injured reserve this week.

Beyond Woods at wide receiver, Buffalo is down to special teamers Walt Powell, Brandon Tate, and Tennessee Titans cast-off Justin Hunter.

Hunter has potential as he is excellent size and can be explosive in the passing game. Hunter hung around in Tennessee despite underperforming due to his physical gifts. He has been with Buffalo since being signed earlier in the season and has used his size as a red zone target with two of his four receptions being touchdowns.

NEW ENGLAND CORNERBACKS

Last year, the highlight of the Buffalo games was watching Malcolm Butler and Sammy Watkins go head-to-head. This week the match-up will be a little less interesting with Butler, Eric Rowe, and Logan Ryan going against Hunter, Powell, and Tate.

Rowe has been taking the big receivers of late and should be in line to try and take away Hunter. Ryan has had success against bigger receivers in the past as well and may find himself on Hunter as well.

Last week the Patriots started Rowe and used him as the number two cornerback as he played the entire game. Ryan was limited to just 31 snaps and Justin Coleman played 17 snaps. How New England aligns their cornerbacks this weekend is unknown with the nickel cornerback position still up in the air.

Rookie Cyrus Jones was a DNP-CD (did not play-coach’s decision) for the second straight week after his ejection for fighting. Fellow rookie Jonathan Jones was active last week but only played on special teams.

Butler has been the main story in the New England secondary once again this year as his high-level play has continued since fighting through an ankle injury earlier in the season. Butler is quickly moving into the discussion as one of the top cornerbacks in the league and setting himself up for a massive payday in the future.

With Rowe and Ryan behind Butler, the Patriots have the ability to deploy their cornerbacks in different ways and with different matchups with different types of receivers. Woods gave the Patriots’ cornerbacks fits in the first matchup as he hauled in seven passes for 89 yards as New England played most of the game in a soft zone. Sunday may be a different story.

PRESSURE ON THE NEW ENGLAND SAFETIES AND LINEBACKERS

So far in 2016 the Buffalo passing attack has been focused on getting the ball to LeSean McCoy and tight end Charles Clay. Without McCoy, backup running back Mike Gillislee and 31-year old third down back Reggie Bush are going to be expected to play a key role in the passing game.

Clay will likely see a lot of strong safety Patrick Chung on Sunday. With just Woods as a consistent passing threat, Clay becomes a key player in the Buffalo offense. Chung has been strong in coverage but earlier in the season Clay was disruptive with five catches for 47 yards against the Patriots.

If New England is in zone defense again (as their tendency has been), look for Jamie Collins, Rob Ninkovich and Dont’a Hightower to have a key role in coverage as well. They will have to account for not just Clay, but tight end Nick O’Leary and running back Mike Gillislee.

ANALYSIS:

Look for New England to continue their trend of soft coverage in the secondary and not giving up big plays. Like with Pittsburgh last week and against the Bills and others earlier this season, the defensive line is going to keep the quarterback in the pocket and prevent big plays.

The New England pass rush–whether by design or not–has been ineffective. Jabaal Sheard has failed to make a major impact like last season and Chris Long has slowed as the season has gone on. The Buffalo offensive line is not a strength, but the Patriots may be unwilling to extend themselves on the pass rush and allow quarterback Tyrod Taylor to run free.

The Bills are going to try and slow the game down and use short passes for the most part to the backs, tight ends and Woods. If given a chance, Taylor may air a few deep passes to Tate or Hunter if he likes the matchup. Overall, the Patriots’ secondary should be able to keep Taylor from hurting them through the air on Sunday.

ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Next: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS RUSHING DEFENSE VS BUFFALO BILLS RUSHING OFFENSE

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS RUSHING DEFENSE VS BUFFALO BILLS RUSHING OFFENSE

New England Patriots defensive lineman Alan Branch is having a strong season. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this season the Bills used running LeSean McCoy as part of a ball-control offense that held the ball for over 36 minutes in defeating the Patriots 16-0 in week four. The Bills were fortunate not to have to contend with Tom Brady and took advantage of an injured rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett and an ineffective offense.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor used his legs–rushing for 28 yards–and short passing game against a weak zone defense to pile up 24 first downs and convert 7 of 15 third downs. With McCoy leading the way, the Bills set-up third-and-manageable over and over again extending drive after drive and keeping the ball away from the Patriots.

McCoy has a combination of speed, shiftiness and underappreciated power to break tackles and get to the next level. He is shifty, hard to bring down, and deceptively fast when he gets away from the secondary.

Fortunately for the Patriots, Rex Ryan used up McCoy’s bullets against Miami last week and will more than likely not have him available on Sunday.

Mike Gillislee was at one point considered a hidden gem after the Dolphins took him in the fifth round out of Florida in the 2013 NFL draft. Suffice to say, it did not work out in Miami. Gillislee has become the top backup in Buffalo with Karlos Williams being an idiot and wasting his talent and being cut after a strong rookie season.

Gillislee is not a liability at running back but he is not going to make anyone forget McCoy who has been playing at an MVP level for the surprising Bills. Gillislee has been slowed by a foot injury this week but with McCoy out the Bills are going to use him and Reggie Bush to try and replace McCoy.

NEW ENGLAND FRONT SEVEN

The Patriots will have defensive end/linebacker Rob Ninkovich back to help with the run defense against Buffalo this time. No team racked up more yards against New England on the ground this season other than Buffalo and their 134 yards rushing in week four.

New England is ranked 11th in the NFL against the run allowing just 646 yards over seven games. Part of that is being ahead and forcing the opponent to pass the ball in the second half, but this unit has been strong and disciplined at the point of attack this year.

Jabaal Sheard sets the edge well but no one (maybe in the NFL) is as effective as Ninkovich on the edge. He is strong and a masterful tactician and is difficult to overpower as his veteran savvy has him in position to funnel a ball carrier to a waiting safety or linebacker to make the play.

Chris Long has jumped out on game tape as a weak point in setting edge–particularly earlier in the season against Buffalo, but his discipline has improved in recent weeks as he has been able to come off the field and be used as the Patriots initially anticipated.

No discussion of the Patriots’ run defense is complete without emphasizing the role of the linebackers. Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, and now rookie Elandon Roberts have shown time and again their ability to clamp down on running backs and keep teams from controlling the game and keeping the ball away from the New England offense.

Beyond Gillislee and Bush, the Patriots will be acutely aware of quarterback Tyrod Taylor and his ability to make plays with his feet. The Patriots want no part of Taylor picking up first downs by escaping the pocket and getting to the second-level.

The defensive tackles for New England have been strong with Malcom Brown and veteran Alan Branch playing strong at the point of attack in the two-gap scheme. The Patriots have had productive play from rookies Vincent Valentine and Woodrow Hamilton, but the two of them were out last week due to injury and Brown and Branch cannot stay effective playing all game.

The Bills have some strong players on the offensive line in Richie Incognito, Eric Wood, and John Miller inside. Cordy Glenn is solid at left tackle but right tackle is a mess with Jordan Mills, Seantrel Henderson, and Cyrus Kouandjio all underachieving.

Buffalo also likes to use fullback Jerome Felton as a hammer in short yardage situations. Felton is an underrated part of the Bills’ success running the ball as he is strong and smart with picking who to focus on while clearing out space for the running backs.

ANALYSIS

The Patriots usually will play zone to keep their defenders’ eyes on the pocket and rush the quarterback with strict lane discipline. Rather than get to the quarterback and allow him to break containment, they prefer to force the quarterback to stay in the pocket and be patient.

Taylor hurt them in week four by playing into their plan and completing short passes to McCoy, Woods, and Clay repeatedly. New England needs to be smarter. If it means playing man-to-man and using one of the linebackers to spy on Taylor, so be it. If it takes away from the run defense to help stop the passing game, then the Patriots should consider it.

Keeping Taylor in the pocket is a solid strategy as he is dangerous running the ball. Giving up chunks of yards playing a zone defense to stop him from running seems counter-productive. Keeping Jamie Collins as a spy, playing man coverage, and letting the rest of the front seven of the defense to stack the line against Gillislee should keep Buffalo under control.

Whether the Patriots can slow the Bills rushing attack on Sunday will go a long way towards whether Buffalo can keep the game close. Buffalo’s offensive line is able to keep the offense on the field most weeks and “ground-and-pound” is what Rex Ryan wants to do on Sunday.

ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO BILLS