National Football League

Time To Chalk It Up

Updated Jul. 13, 2021 4:06 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

By Geoff Schwartz

I retired from the NFL at the end of the 2016 season and started gambling on football in 2017. Starting out, I was like everyone else as a gambling newbie. I made all the silly bets that help fund those giant hotel towers in Las Vegas: huge favorites on the road, public favorites, public overs and more.

In 2018, I joined a media company to cover wagering on football, and I had my first introduction to the "right" way to gamble. Fade the public. Bet on home dogs. Take the under. And while it’s not fun to bet on unders and bad teams getting points at home, it could be profitable in the end. 

It’s now Week 5 of the 2020 season and all those principles I learned ... well, we can throw those out the window.

Overs are hitting at a remarkable rate through the first four weeks, as the NFL is averaging 51.3 points per game, the most through four weeks in the Super Bowl era. Tackling has been atrocious, and the league has just stopped calling holding.

However, as injuries pile up, the weather gets colder and defenses start tackling better with more practice, I believe unders will return as a profitable bet. Where I’m not optimistic is with bad teams covering anymore.

Those home dogs that we’d hold our nose and bet, especially under a touchdown, just can’t do it anymore. There are 14 teams in the NFL right now with one or zero wins. If you exclude the Bengals and Broncos (both 3-1 against the spread), the other 12 teams are a combined 11-34-3 ATS. That’s not good.

So with that in mind, I'm fading home dogs and leaning toward favorites for my Week 5 wagers, with all odds via FOX Bet.

Enter the NFL Challenge contest on the FOX Super 6 app for free and you can win the $100,000 jackpot! Download now at foxsuper6.com!

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Washington Football Team

I didn’t feel comfortable with the Rams as big home favorites last weekend because it felt like it could be a stinker game for them, and it was. The Rams looked like they were sleepwalking in an ugly 17-9 victory over the Giants.

It was their one B.S. game of the season. Every good team has one of them throughout the year, so I expect LA to come out with a renewed focus against Washington.

Even with that stinker, the Rams rank second in offensive DVOA, while Washington stands fourth in defensive DVOA (while allowing 32 PPG over the last three contests). Yet Washington is 18th against the run, which is the staple of the Rams offense.

The L.A. offensive line is generating huge running lanes for the three-headed monster at running back, ranking third by Pro Football Focus in run blocking. And just from experience, when you have a stinker like Sunday against the Giants, the Rams offense likely can’t wait to get back on the field and take it to their next opponent.

Washington has benched second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins, but that’s not going to solve its offensive issues. Kyle Allen becomes the starter, and to refresh your memory, he finished ranked last by PFF last season for QBs with at least 50 percent of snaps. Washington has benched Dwayne Haskins, but that’s not going to solve their offensive issues.

The switch to Allen doesn’t make the Washington football team offense any better. It just provides some cover for the coaching staff when they struggle again. The Rams won’t be worried about this switch, and I do not believe it will help them cover. 

Kansas City Chiefs (-11) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, this is a ton of points to lay, but guess what? I’m not fading Patrick Mahomes, whose Chiefs have won 12 straight and covered in 11 of those games.

Furthermore, Andy Reid OWNS the Raiders, as he’s 14-2 as Chiefs coach against the Silver and Black. The rivalry – if you want to call it that – has taken a strong turn toward being uncompetitive, as the Chiefs have won the last three contests 103-22. Yes, that’s correct. A plus-81 scoring difference over their last three meetings!

Will Sunday be any different? Nope.

The Raiders defense is a hot mess, ranking 30th in DVOA. The Chiefs offense will score at will. But I want to focus on the Chiefs defense, a unit that stepped up in the back half of 2019 to help K.C. secure its first Super Bowl in 50 seasons.

The Chiefs defense ranks fifth in total DVOA, but first against the pass, which is important because they are always ahead in games. I’d much rather the Chiefs be excellent against the pass, since teams have to abandon their game plan earlier than expected to throw the ball in an attempt to keep up. 

So, while the Raiders, at times, have been able to score points, they showed the last two weeks that they will struggle against good football teams. It will continue Sunday at Arrowhead.

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Teddy "Covers" Bridgewater is back after starting the season slow. Entering this season, the Panthers QB was 27-7 against the spread as a starter, but he lost his first two games in 2020, failing to cover in both.

But, he’s back, folks, winning the last two games and covering as well, now 18-4 ATS as an underdog for his career. Next up, the Panthers hit the road to face a Falcons team that can’t stop anyone. They’ve allowed the most big plays on defense, ranking 31st against the pass and 28th in red-zone defense.

With Christian McCaffery out of the lineup, Carolina's offense actually has improved without being so reliant on CMC. Incredibly, the Panthers have rushed for more yards per game. Bridgewater is having a career season, with both his completion percentage and passing yards per-attempt hitting career highs. 

The Panthers defense started slow, coming in at 26th in Expected Points Added. After beating the Chargers and Cardinals, they’ve moved up to 15th. Despite having tons of weapons, the Falcons offense is just blah. They score points at the end of blowouts, like in their losses against the Seahawks and Packers. They are 21st in DVOA and in EPA.

The Panthers are simply playing better on both sides than the Falcons right now. 

Baker Mayfield UNDER 243.5 passing yards

The Browns are 3-1, mostly on the back of their rushing attack, which rolled up more than 300 yards at Dallas. Cleveland's ground game is second in DVOA and first in adjusted line yards.

However, its passing game isn’t as explosive, ranking 19th in DVOA and 30th in explosive plays. Mayfield is averaging 182 yards per game, and that’s boosted by one game of 219 yards against Cincy.

The Browns play the Colts this weekend, and Mayfield is a good bet to struggle. The Colts defense is first in DVOA and leads the league in defensive EPA. Specifically, they are slightly better against the pass than the run, ranking first in coverage according to PFF.

Cleveland will design a game plan to run, run and run more, trying to keep Mayfield away from throwing against this secondary. Also, I expect this game to be close, and in a close game, Mayfield won’t be getting those garbage time stats to hit the over. 

Seahawks/Rams/Steelers teaser

You can take all these favorites down to a single point, and while this feels too easy to be true, none of these three are losing.

I discussed the Rams above. The Seahawks are back home to play the Vikings, who held on to survive against the Texans last week. I’m done betting against Russell Wilson, whose team is 4-0 against the spread this season.

The Steelers host an Eagles teams off their first win, having beaten a 49ers team missing a large chunk of their roster and their starting QB. Pittsburgh also had a bye after their weekend game against the Titans was postponed. They are fresh, which has historically been good under Mike Tomlin, who is 9-4 off a bye, including three straight wins. Feels like a good spot to include Pittsburgh in a teaser.

Enter the NFL Challenge contest on the FOX Super 6 app for free and you can win the $100,000 jackpot! Download now at foxsuper6.com!

share

Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

National Football League

Los Angeles Rams

Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers

Seattle Seahawks

Carolina Panthers

Baker Mayfield

Geoff Schwartz