National Football League

Ravens' math genius Urschel calculates effects of extra point change

Published May. 20, 2015 2:39 p.m. ET

foxsports

Thinking that the extra point moving back 13 yards will result in more two-point conversions? Think again, says Ravens offensive lineman John Urschel.

If you're now thinking how a backup offensive lineman could possibly have any special insight into the NFL's latest rule change, think again, again. Urschel is a mathematician in his spare time (his Twitter handle is 'MathMeetsFball)', and he pored over some calculations to break down the minimal impact that will result from longer extra points.

In a post on The Players' Tribune, Urschel explained that while the math tells us that expected points for two-point conversions is greater, the risk won't be worth the reward for most NFL coaches.

Urschel surmises that coaches are risk averse (at least the ones not named Chip Kelly), and will therefore take the safer route of kicking the extra point. Feel free to dive deeper into the math if you're into reading about variance and probability modeling. We'll leave the complex formulas up to Urschel.

h/t: The Players' Tribune