New England Patriots

Patriots season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

In 2008, Tom Brady made NFL history by throwing for a then-record 50 touchdowns in a single season. Five years later, Jimmy Garoppolo threw 53 strikes of his own, proving the pretty boy in blue had nothing on the golden arm of Arlington Heights, Ill.

It should probably be noted that Garoppolo was an Eastern Illinois senior at the time, while Brady was slinging skin through and around the tree-trunk arms of NFL defenders. This may or may not account for that three-touchdown margin.

Of course, Patriots fans are hoping Garoppolo can make good on his impressive pedigree while Brady serves his four-game Deflategate suspension. The 24-year-old has been sitting on the bench as Brady’s understudy for the past three seasons and — with free agency looming next year — finally has his chance to show why he deserves a big contract.

After seeing what Brock Osweiler got for seven mostly average starts (four years, $72 million with half guaranteed), Garoppolo has to be frothing at the mouth.

New England hasn’t been without its cornerstone quarterback for a full game since 2009, when Brady tore his ACL in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots still managed to win 11 games with Matt Cassel at the helm, proving why the Pats should not be counted out in any of their 16 games this season.

When Brady does return (in Week 5 to play the Cleveland Browns), the Patriots should be poised to take off toward another AFC East title. The defense looks different this season even without Chandler Jones, who was traded to the Arizona Cardinals during the offseason. The offense, meanwhile, remains loaded, with the addition of tight end Martellus Bennett adding yet another wrinkle to Bill Belichick’s ever-evolving offensive schemes.

After snagging 53 passes for 439 yards in 11 games with the Chicago Bears last leason, Bennett will team with Rob Gronkowski to form the most dynamic pass-catching duo at the position. If he can bounce back from a relative down season, Bennett should provide Brady with yet another tough cover down the seam, where the Patriots do their most damage.

Gronkowski remains the hardest man to cover in the NFL, as shown by his 1,176 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. The 27-year-old must stay healthy for this offense to continue rolling — something that’s been an issue throughout his career. Still, after being limited to 18 combined games in 2012 and 2013, Gronkowski has logged 15 starts in each of the past two seasons, which should help Pats fans rest a little easier (as they knock on the largest tree they can find).

For New England, the real question goes back to the jettisoning of Jones. Without him, the Patriots will be without their best pass-rusher from 2015 (12.5 sacks). Jabaal Sheard and Rob Ninkovich (when he returns) are undoubtedly threats, but neither has the athleticism and edge speed of the former first-round pick out of Syracuse.

The Patriots have to weather the first four weeks with the end goal to once again grab a top-two seed in the AFC bracket. New England is tough to beat in January at Gillette, and with the minuscule differences in the top AFC contenders, being at home in the cold could make all the difference for a team that knows its window to win is still wide open.

Schedule

Week 1 – at Arizona Cardinals (Sun. night)
Week 2 – Miami Dolphins
Week 3 – Houston Texans
Week 4 – Buffalo Bills
Week 5 – at Cleveland Browns
Week 6 – Cincinnati Bengals
Week 7 – at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 8 – at Buffalo Bills
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – Seattle Seahawks (Sun. night)
Week 11 – at San Francisco 49ers
Week 12 – at New York Jets (Sun. night)
Week 13 – Los Angeles Rams
Week 14 – Baltimore Ravens (Mon.)
Week 15 – at Denver Broncos
Week 16 – New York Jets
Week 17 – at Miami Dolphins

The middle of the slate is pretty daunting, even for the Patriots. Starting in Week 6, New England faces four games against teams that finished at or above .500 a year ago, including three against 2015 playoff squads.

The schedule turns favorable down the stretch, however, with the Pats enjoying three of the final five contests in Foxborough and the road slate featuring a game against the Dolphins, who (as noted above) will likely be out of the playoff picture at that juncture.

Draft class

Round 2 (60) – Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama
Round 3 (78) – Joe Thuney, OG, North Carolina State
Round 3 (91) – Jacoby Brissett, QB, North Carolina State
Round 3 (96) – Vincent Valentine, DT, Nebraska
Round 4 (112) – Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia
Round 6 (208) – Kamu Grugler-Hill, OLB, Eastern Illinois
Round 6 (214) – Elandon Roberts, ILB, Houston
Round 6 (221) – Ted Karras, OG, Illinois
Round 7 (225) – Devin Lucien, WR, Arizona State

Mitchell might be the immediate contributor out of this group. After the Patriots allowed Brandon LaFell to leave in free agency, a spot opened up on the outside, where Mitchell was a prolific standout in the SEC. If he learns the playbook quickly enough, Mitchell could be one of the surprise stories for a team who needs as much depth at wideout as it can get.

Following the release of Dominique Easley in the offseason, Valentine has a real shot of cracking the d-line rotation, which Belichick always loves tweak and tinker with.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Jonathan Cooper, OG (Trade with AZ)
Terrance Knighton, NT (1 year, $4.5 million)
Martellus Bennett, TE (Trade with CHI)

Lost

Chandler Jones, DE/OLB (Trade with AZ)
Dominique Easley, DL (Released)

X-Factor

How does Jimmy Garoppolo perform in the first four games? The Patriots are going to make the playoffs, and in all likelihood will run away with the AFC East by a considerable margin. However, if Garoppolo can only muster one win before Brady’s return, it could cost New England the comfy confines of Gillette Stadium come January.

Garoppolo has never played a meaningful snap in his NFL life. Despite all the looks we got in the preseason, we have no idea what the former Eastern Illinois standout is going to do with the lights turned up.

Bottom Line

As it always is with the Patriots, this is about the Super Bowl. New England is going to win 10+ games and, with any luck, find itself playing well into winter with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Bill Belichick leading the way.

The Pats are going to have some rigid competition in the AFC, with Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Kansas City all looming as potential spoilers, but they remain safe favorites regardless. If New England can weather the Brady suspension, there’s every chance the team could notch a seventh Super Bowl appearance under Belichick, putting the team into even more rarefied air.