NFL Weekend Betting Recap: Books 'Happy' to Beat Bettors in Divisional Round

The public betting masses had their moments over the weekend. But the bigger decisions fell in favor of the bookmakers in NFL divisional-round odds.

"It was a great weekend for us," SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said, particularly highlighting Saturday. "The Broncos winning was good, and the Seahawks winning by a million was tremendous."

More on the weekend that was, as multiple oddsmakers recap NFL Divisional Round betting.

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Broncos Bust Bills, Bo Busts Ankle

Denver was a 1.5-point home favorite vs. Buffalo on Saturday. But the Bills were the more popular team, particularly in parlays and in moneyline parlays.

Which is understandable. Many thought this would be Josh Allen’s Super Bowl breakthrough year, with no Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow impeding the Bills’ way in the AFC.

But Allen threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles, among Buffalo’s five turnovers. Even then, the Bills were in it until the end, forging a 30-30 tie on Matt Prater’s 50-yard final-minute field goal to force overtime.

However, OT brought more heartache for Allen, including a controversial interception, as the Broncos won 33-30 on a Will Lutz 23-yard field goal.

"Denver was one of our biggest results for the year," BetMGM trading manager Tristan Davis.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews, whose shop was jam-packed with customers Saturday and Sunday, also noted Bills-Broncos as a particularly good result.

"We had so much business on that game, we were gonna win no matter who won," Andrews said.

There was some downside for Broncos supporters, though, particularly those holding AFC championship or Super Bowl futures tickets on Denver. Quarterback Bo Nix fractured a bone in his ankle on the final drive, and though he finished the game, he’s done for the season.

With Nix, the Broncos likely would’ve been short home favorites vs. the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Without Nix, though, the Patriots are 5.5-point road favorites.

Seattle Stampede

The 49ers were an even more trendy underdog than the Bills. San Francisco was a 7-point pup at Seattle, where the Niners lost 13-3 just two weeks earlier, in Week 18.

The public betting masses felt certain the playoff game would be different. 

And it was different, all right. Just not in the way bettors thought it would be.

Rashid Shaheed returned the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown, and the Seahawks’ rout was on from there. Seattle led 24-6 at halftime and shut out San Fran in the second half, winning 41-6.

"Seattle winning was terrific for us," SuperBook vice president John Murray said. "A lot of late money came in on the 49ers, and we had significant futures liability on the 49ers. So the Seahawks running away and blowing them out was a great result."

Give-and-Take Sunday

Bettors got some money back in Sunday’s opener between the Patriots and Texans. It was an ugly game featuring eight turnovers — five from Houston and three from New England.

But the public’s support of the Pats ultimately paid off, with Drake Maye & Co. winning 28-16 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Pregame, BetMGM’s Davis noted a need on the underdog.

"It’s pretty simple. We need a Houston win, but a cover will be fine," Davis said.

BetMGM and Caesars Sports both noted the Patriots’ win and cover was the best outcome for bettors. That was likely the case at other big national books, as well, including DraftKings.

However, the result worked out fine for The SuperBook, as part of a back-and-forth with bettors on Sunday.

"The Pats covering and the total going over was a good result," Degnon said, alluding to the 44 combined points eclipsing the total of 41. "Then we lost a little bit on the Rams."

That was primarily due to moneyline parlays getting there with L.A., which eked out a thrilling 20-17 overtime victory vs. the Bears.

"But we did take a big bet on Rams team total Over 22.5, which essentially washed out our losses from the game. The Bears winning would’ve been icing on the cake. But it was still a really good weekend."

Run the Cover Play

Like The SuperBook, BetMGM needed the Bears on Sunday night, preferably outright but at least to cover as 3.5-point home underdogs.

Trailing 17-10 and facing fourth-and-4 from the Rams’ 14-yard line, Chicago QB Caleb Williams dropped back and kept dropping back, beyond the 40-yard line, trying to evade L.A. defenders.

Williams ultimately uncorked a Hail Mary to the corner of the end zone, hitting Cole Kmet for the tying touchdown with 18 seconds remaining.

That forced overtime, and although the Rams went on to win 20-17, the Bears covered the number.

"That was a bit of luck for us, with the Bears [ostensibly] covering on their final play of regulation," Davis said. "Considering the two favorites won Sunday, we are happy with how the weekend panned out."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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