National Football League

NFL odds: Is there value on betting the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl?

Updated Oct. 26, 2021 4:08 p.m. ET

Maybe it's the Madden curse. Maybe it's the questionable defense. Either way, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have an uphill battle reclaiming bettors' confidence when it comes to the team's Super Bowl chances.

At the beginning of this season, the Chiefs were +500 (favorites) to win the Super Bowl, with Mahomes sitting at +550 in the MVP odds. But, with Kansas City currently sitting in last place in the AFC West, the tables have turned.

In every game for the past 6 weeks, the former Offensive Player of the Year has thrown at least one interception, and the 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 7 marks the first game since his team lost to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl that ShowTime Patrick didn't pass for a touchdown.

Can Kansas City's signal-caller and the Chiefs make a push in the second half of the season to live up to their original hype? Mahomes' odds to win MVP currently sit at +4000 and the Chiefs' chances to win the big game come in at +1200.

Let's take a look at what lies ahead for the former champs.

Kansas City plays the New York Giants next week on Monday Night Football, and lucky for the struggling Chiefs, the Giants presently have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. New York ranks 23rd overall and gives up 25.7 points per game. That might be exactly what the doctor ordered for Mahomes & Co.

Despite their dismal 3-4 record, the three-time Pro Bowler and friends do put up points and still have one of the best offenses in the NFL. That offense which, once upon a time, seemed unstoppable, ranks 8th in the NFL, racking up 26.9 points per game.

Next week's game could be the beginning of Kansas City finding their magic again, and the FOX Bet oddsmakers think that just might be the case. They have the Chiefs sitting as 9.5-point favorites to defeat Daniel Jones and the banged-up Giants.

On the flip side, after Monday Night Football, the road looks a little rockier. The Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Dallas Cowboys are their Weeks 9, 10, and 11 opponents, and each of those teams leads their respective divisions with winning records. Anything could happen, but if the Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers keep hitting their strides, and Kansas City drops a few of those contests, the Chiefs might need to start looking forward to next year.

According to FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor, when it comes to Mahomes being named League MVP again, the quarterback's dreams are essentially just that.

"We really feel Mahomes is almost out of the race altogether," Blangsted-Barnor said. "Even if he went on a run, the damage could already be done. He has 9 Interceptions already, and the last MVP to throw more than that and win MVP was Cam in 2015 who threw 10, and he added so much rushing value to compensate.

"So Mahomes would likely need to throw no more interceptions all season while playing at an MVP level the rest of the way. But I think he would also be relying on the likes of Buffalo's Josh Allen, Arizona's Kyler Murray, and Tom Brady to falter as well."

But does the team go as its quarterback goes or might there be some glimmer of hope for Kansas City to make it to SoFi?

"As reflected in the odds, this bet is more plausible for us," Blangsted-Barnor said about the former world champions. "As poor as the Chiefs have been, they’ve always got a chance with that level of talent, and if they got a run going, you wouldn’t want to play them in January."

To think about how Kansas City has descended from first to almost worst in the two years since winning the Lombardi is bizarre. But as long there's more football left to play, it's still any team's game, especially with their offense.

Fox Sports NFL analyst Geoff Schwartz believes that there's still a fighting chance for Kansas City.

"While it might feel like the Chiefs' season is over, that's not the case," Schwartz stated. "It’s as simple as fixing things the Chiefs have control over. Play smart. Take what is there on offense. No more blown assignments. And the bad luck with turnovers is bound to change.

"If the Chiefs stay positive and eliminate mistakes, they can get right back in the mix in an AFC in which every team has at least two losses."

It will be wild watching this team try to get back to being great again. In the meantime, are you taking a flier on the Chiefs?

A $10 bet on the Chiefs right now to win this year's Super Bowl would win you $130.00 total at FOX Bet.

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