NFL, CFB Weekend Betting Recap: 'Texans-Steelers Will Decide Wild Card Weekend'

It was a give-and-take weekend between bettors and bookmakers in NFL wild-card odds, meaning Monday night’s finale between the Texans and Steelers will likely decide which side wins the battle this week.

"It was a good day Sunday and an OK weekend. The Bears kept it from being a great weekend," said Casey Degnon, risk manager at The SuperBook in Las Vegas.

More on the weekend that was, as multiple oddsmakers recap NFL Wild Card betting, along with the College Football Playoff semifinals.

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Bear Market

The Bears earned the NFC’s No. 2 seed, meaning they got to host the lowest seed on Wild Card Weekend, the No. 7 Packers. Yet Chicago was a 1.5-point underdog at kickoff.

And multiple oddsmakers, in Vegas and across the country, noted that sharp bettors were on Green Bay.

The first half seemed to indicate why, as the Bears trailed 21-3 after two quarters. Chicago was a huge long shot to come back and win, with in-game odds in the range of +1100 — meaning a $100 bet would win $1,100.

By the end of the third quarter, the Bears had barely made a dent, trailing 21-6. But Chicago exploded for 25 fourth-quarter points and stunningly won 31-27.

"There was a lot of support for the Bears," SuperBook vice president John Murray said. "We needed the Packers really big. It was tough to see them totally give that game away."

The Bears’ reward is another home game, vs. the fifth-seeded Rams. And Chicago is an even bigger underdog of 4 points in NFL divisional-round odds.

Popular Patriots

The public betting masses also did well to the Chargers-Patriots Sunday night matchup. New England closed as a 3.5-point home favorite and stifled L.A. throughout in a 16-3 victory.

That turned a winning weekend for BetMGM into closer to a break-even weekend.

"The bettors got something back in that game," BetMGM trading manager Tristan Davis said late Sunday night, while doing a little foreshadowing, as well. "I’m sure there will be plenty of open parlays going into Monday night.

"So the Texans-Steelers game will decide Wild Card Weekend."

Niners Finer

One matchup multiple oddsmakers enjoyed: The 49ers knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles 23-19, with San Francisco a 5.5-point road underdog.

"The big one for us was the Niners pulling out the upset in Philly," The SuperBook’s Degnon said.

A key reason why: A lot of moneyline parlay action included the Eagles. All those tickets got blown up by Philadelphia bowing out.

In fact, The SuperBook did well to both NFC West teams in the NFL wild-card odds market, though for different reasons.

While the Niners were the book’s need Sunday, the Panthers were the need on Saturday, as 10-point home underdogs vs. the Rams. Carolina gave Los Angeles all it could handle, and although the Rams prevailed 34-31, they fell far short of covering the big number.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews highlighted that result, as well.

"The Panthers-Rams game was really good for us, although it would’ve been better if the Panthers won outright. But you can’t have everything," Andrews said.

CFP Semis: The Public Strikes Back

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals fell largely in favor of BetMGM, with upsets from Miami and Ole Miss beating up the betting masses, who were on Ohio State and Georgia.

But the public got payback in CFP semifinal odds, mainly via No. 1 Indiana’s 56-22 shellacking of No. 5 Oregon in the Peach Bowl. The Hoosiers were just 3-point favorites, yet led 35-7 at halftime and didn’t slow down much from there.

"It was a rough semifinals for the book," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. "Indiana covering by a ton and the game going over the total cashed a lot of parlays."

BetMGM’s total closed at 49.5, which Indiana surpassed on its own. The Over hit by midway through the third quarter.

In the Jan. 19 CFP championship game, the Hoosiers face No. 10 Miami, on the Hurricanes’ home field at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami won a 31-27 thriller over No. 6 Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, narrowly covering as a 3-point favorite.

However, there’s no doubt the masses were far more impressed by Indiana and rightly so. It’s already showing up in the CFP odds market.

"Early action on the championship is very lopsided on Indiana -7.5," Magee said.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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