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Divisional needs: AFC East preview

Published Apr. 8, 2013 1:00 a.m. ET

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Over the past decade, the AFC East has been dominated by the New England Patriots, as they have won the division championship in nine of the last 10 seasons. 2008 was the only exception as the Miami Dolphins rode the success of the Wildcat offense to an 11-5 record and a No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. I guess it’s also worth pointing out that 2008 was the year that Tom Brady went down with a season-ending knee injury in the first game of the year. As we approach the 2013 NFL Draft, the Patriots aren’t as dominant on paper as they have been in previous years, but none of the other three teams have done enough to close the gap. I predict the 2013 outcome will look very to the final standings in 2012 … the Patriots will win their fifth straight division championship with the Dolphins, Jets and Bills finishing second, third and fourth.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Finished: 12-4, Eliminated by the Ravens in the AFC Championship game.
Drafting: No. 29 in the first round
Needs: WR, DL, CB, OL

New England has done what the Patriots always do during the offseason by strategically selecting free agents to complement a roster that is still in large part built on draft day. The Patriots obviously lost the bidding war for Wes Welker, but were able to soften the blow by signing another Texas Tech alum, Danny Amendola. Amendola may look the part of Welker, but is actually more of a vertical threat and if healthy, could become a fantasy football player’s dream in New England.

Defensively, the 2012 Patriots finished the season ranked 25th in total yards and 29th against the pass but they have done well this offseason to address those concerns. First, they were able to retain Aqib Talib, who they acquired midseason from the Buccaneers and could be a special player if he can overcome his off-the-field issues. Second, they brought in Adrian Wilson to fill a need at safety and he will either pair with Devin McCourty as a good, but not great, safety tandem, or will allow for McCourty to move back to his original cornerback position. McCourty’s flexibility to play either position gives New England options in the draft to select the best player available rather than having to be bound to a specific position.

For the first time in a while, the Patriots have just five draft picks and will not control the process the way they have in years past. Coincidentally, they have more glaring needs than they have in any other year. With the aforementioned holes in the defensive secondary as well as at pass rusher, the Patriots will most likely use the No. 29 and No. 59 picks on the defensive side of the ball.

Cornerback and safety are both unusually deep in this draft class as both positions are usually only top-heavy with talent. For that reason, I would expect the Patriots to go after a pass-rusher first and then either a safety or a corner in the second round. With Dee Milliner, Xavier Rhodes and Desmond Trufant all but guaranteed first-round picks, that leaves Johnthan Banks and one of my favorite playmakers in the draft, Jordan Poyer, as potentials in the second round. Banks is most likely gone well before the No. 59 pick and without the ammo to move up in this draft like they have been able to do in other years, the Patriots are going to have to sit and wait. Poyer is not a bad consolation prize though as his ball skills and playmaking ability may be the best in the class. At safety, Eric Reid from LSU or T.J. McDonald would be possibilities after the top-tier wave of Kenny Vaccaro, Matt Elam and Jonathan Cyprien are removed from the board. Either would be solid additions to a defensive backfield that has historically turned mid-round picks into perennial Pro Bowlers.

That leaves the Patriots with a pass-rusher for the 29th pick and the most interesting name you hear connected with New England is SMU defensive lineman, Margus Hunt. Hunt is a workout warrior who turned heads at the combine for his rare combination of length, flexibility and brute strength. Hunt checked-in at 6-8, 277 pounds and ran a 4.6 time in the 40-yard dash and put up 38 reps in the bench press. Tell me that doesn’t sound like a player Bill Belichick could have some fun with.

Offensively, even though the Pats have signed three wide receivers this offseason (Amendola, Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones), they still need to address the position for the future as none of those guys is worthy of being listed at No. 1 on the depth chart. The problem is, without picks in Rounds 4-6, the Patriots will most likely have to make do.

MIAMI DOLPHINS
Finished: 7-9
Drafting: No. 12 in first round
Needs: CB, OT, LB, DL

Miami won the NFL’s version of March Madness as it kicked off the free-agency frenzy with a bang by signing the perceived best wide receiver available in Mike Wallace, but time will only tell how much it overpaid for him. Greg Jennings, being familiar with Joe Philbin’s system, seemed to be the much more logical choice in my opinion.

Then, they stole Dannell Ellerbe in a surprise signing and added another linebacker in Philip Wheeler, but in doing so, had to release consistent linebacking performers Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett. That’s pretty much a wash.

Dustin Keller was a good signing, albeit the Dolphins’ second choice at the tight end after losing out on Jared Cook. Brent Grimes was a nice late addition, but since he’s coming off a serious injury, he’s a big question mark at a position where the Dolphins were all but set entering last season with Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, neither of whom are on the roster in 2013. Jake Long’s departure may prove to be the most painful loss though. Even in a down year, the Dolphins tried hard to keep him home, but he eventually left for St. Louis and in doing so left the Dolphins with a huge issue at both tackle positions.

Unlike Tennessee and Jacksonville, the Dolphins believe in their first-round quarterback Ryan Tannehill and have even provided a couple of free-agency weapons to prove it, but if they can’t protect him, what’s the point? Jonathan Martin has yet to develop and didn’t provide any certainty that he can take over as the starting left tackle and even if he does make a huge leap in development as a sophomore, they still don’t have anyone to play on the right side. Miami is in an interesting draft position, sitting at No. 12 overall, but they may just miss out of the top-three tackles in this draft class. Luke Joeckel is most likely going to be the first pick in the draft and Eric Fisher is just as worthy. So, with both of them surely gone, they will be hoping that Lane Johnson from Oklahoma falls right into their lap. But that is highly unlikely, especially with San Diego sitting just a pick in front of them with an even more glaring need at the left tackle position.

If the Dolphins are uncomfortable pulling D.J. Fluker or Menelik Watson into the top 15 with the No. 12 pick, they may look to slide back and acquire more picks while still obtaining either Fluker or Watson later in the round. If they aren’t able to find a trading partner, the Dolphins would be wise to look at another position of need: cornerback. With Dee Milliner off the board, this would be prime real estate for Xavier Rhodes or Desmond Trufant, both of whom could be instant starters opposite a healthy Brent Grimes.

With two picks in both the second and third rounds, the Dolphins could look to add depth along the defensive line as well as in the linebacking unit. While I think the Dolphins are clearly the second best team in the division, I’m not sure they would be in play for a wild-card berth in 2013, but a strategic draft this year could set them up for a nice run with a young quarterback that showed signs of brilliance last season.

NEW YORK JETS
Finished: 6-10
Drafting: No. 9 in the first round
Needs: QB, OT, OLB, DL, S

The fact that the New York Jets have not been heard of since free agency began screams volumes. They lost a number of veteran players and still have a few more unsigned, namely Bart Scott, who along with Rex Ryan was brought in to be the face of this franchise built on a punishing defense, but after a 6-10 season while giving up the 26th most rushing yards, a makeover is needed. They are in a difficult position in that they don’t have the cap room to improve and their biggest needs are the biggest weaknesses in this year’s draft … quarterback and pass rush.

Antwan Barnes flashes great pass rushing skills, but he is not going to be the missing ingredient to the brilliance of Rex Ryan, nor does the addition of David Garrard give them the answer at quarterback. They could be in play for Geno Smith with the ninth overall pick, but even if he is there, I’m not sure this guy has shown enough to be a top-10 pick in this draft or any other. But again, that is up for the Jets to decide and if they believe he has the skills to be a franchise quarterback, they can’t afford to pass him by no matter how high the pick would be. If they do wait until the second round to address the quarterback need, the expectations shouldn’t be high. Outside of Andy Dalton, for whom the jury is still out, name a quarterback that has been successful after being selected in the second round. Anyone?

Addressing the pass-rushing need is obviously the more safe pick and with Rex Ryan not having enough time on his hot seat to sit and wait for the development of a young quarterback, it is the most likely pick for the Jets at No. 9 overall. Any numbers of players from BYU’s Ziggy Ansah, Florida State’s Bjoern Werner or LSU’s Barkevious Mingo could be there to choose from, but the one name that intrigues me the most is Georgia’s Jarvis Jones. When I watch him, I can easily picture him in Ryan’s system and he has similar pass rushing skills to Von Miller, although not as polished. The biggest concern however is his medical condition of spinal stenosis, which is a narrowing of the spinal column that causes pressure on the spinal cord, that must be cleared before anyone takes a chance on him with a first-round pick. This is the same injury that shortened the once-promising career of Marcus McNeill in San Diego. But if Jones can clear the medical with the Jets, he has the skills that would be very beneficial to Rex Ryan’s pressure package.

BUFFALO BILLS
Finished: 6-10
Drafting: No. 8 in the first round
Needs: QB, WR, LB, DL

Buffalo, along with Cleveland and Oakland, seem to be in a competition to be the worst franchise in the NFL this century. New head coach Doug Marrone has to change the “culture” in upstate New York in a way we have not seen since Jim Schwartz took over an 0-16 Detroit Lions team in 2009. New defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will have to oversee a total change in philosophy and personnel even though they have spent some resources in recent offseasons along the defensive line. Offensively, Marrone oddly enough, will have to see a change over from Chan Gailey’s college-style offense to one that will work in the NFL. Kevin Kolb may prove to be a nice pickup, depending on whom they take at that position in the draft. I hated to see them lose Andy Levitre as he is one the best interior offensive lineman in the game. If you are going to change the culture, it has to begin with keeping your good players.

There is nothing they can do about that now and with just six picks in the draft, they need to make the most of every pick. They, just like the Jets, will need to decide if Geno Smith is worthy of a top-10 pick or gamble on a second-rounder such as Marrone’s former college quarterback, Ryan Nassib. Unlike Rex Ryan, Marrone has the time to develop a first-year quarterback and in fact, drafting a quarterback as a first-year head coach has proved to be very beneficial. Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh. Matt Ryan and Mike Smith. Colin Kaepernick and Jim Harbaugh. Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano.
 

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