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Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers: Who Has the Advantage?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

With only a few days to forget about a disappointing Week 6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Chicago Bears must turn right back around and prepare themselves for a Thursday night showdown against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Bears (1-5) are obviously at the very bottom of the NFC North, and with a loss to the Packers in Week 7, they could possibly be the bottom feeders of the entire league.

Last season, Chicago was in a similar situation heading into their matchup against Green Bay on a short week. The Bears were coming off a two-point loss to the Denver Broncos, only to go into Green Bay as underdogs and upset the Packers. After their one-point loss to the Jaguars, Chicago will be hoping to shock the football world with another win over Green Bay on the not-yet-frozen tundra.

Things might be looking good for the Bears, considering that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been playing at the level everyone is used to seeing. But even with that playing a factor, let’s go into detail to see which team has the better chance of coming out on top.

Bears’ Pass Offense vs. Packers’ Pass Defense

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The numbers look good for Bears quarterback Brian Hoyer. In their storied history, Hoyer has become Chicago’s first quarterback to have four consecutive 300-yard passing games, and has done this without throwing an interception. It appears that Hoyer has found a new favorite target in wide receiver Cameron Meredith, who has gone over 100 yards receiving in the last two games. The Bears’ offense could continue to put up big numbers while including Alshon Jeffery against the Packers’ 21st ranked pass defense.

The Packers’ top three cornerbacks are ruled out for this game. However, Green Bay’s pass rush could be too much for Chicago’s offensive front. The Packers are tied for sixth in the NFL with 16 sacks, and apparently Bears left guard Josh Sitton won’t play due to an ankle injury. Even though the Bears’ offensive line has shown some improvement over the past couple of weeks, they seem to be overmatched. In addition, it doesn’t matter how many yards you put in the air; it doesn’t mean a thing if you don’t put points on the board.

Advantage: Packers

Bears’ Run Offense vs. Packers’ Run Defense

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Even after surrendering 157 rushing yards to Dallas Cowboys rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, the Packers still find themselves ranked second in the NFL in run defense (72.4 yards per game). The Bears’ 23rd ranked ground attack didn’t go anywhere against Jacksonville last week, and probably will be stuck in the mud once again at Lambeau Field. Besides, Bears head coach John Fox still hasn’t shown total commitment to his running back-by-committee approach.

Advantage: Packers

Packers’ Pass Offense vs. Bears’ Pass Defense

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As mentioned earlier, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been in somewhat of a rut this season. Through the Packers’ first five games, Rodgers’ QB rating is 88.4, his lowest since becoming a starter in 2008. But let’s be real, just like the Green Bay quarterback that preceded him, Rodgers tends to have great games against the Bears; his 104.3 career QB rating versus Chicago proves this. Although the Bears’ are a respectable 10th in pass defense, I think Rodgers will revert back to his dominant self. And let’s not forget that even with his struggles this season, Rodgers has still found Jordy Nelson for five touchdowns, which is tied for the lead in the NFL.

Advantage: Packers

Packers’ Run Offense vs. Bears’ Run Defense

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Green Bay’s running game is average at best, and with running backs Eddie Lacy and James Starks sidelined, the Packers will probably find it hard to move the ball on the ground. In Week 6, Green Bay had to settle for wide receiver Ty Montgomery as their ball carrier out of the backfield after Lacy exited the game with an ankle injury. Green Bay did make a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs for running back Knile Davis, but he will more than likely see very little action. Because of this, Chicago’s 19th ranked run defense may improve statistically.

Advantage: Bears

Special Teams

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago’s primary punt returner Eddie Royal is ruled out with a toe injury, and kicker Connor Barth still isn’t looked upon as an automatic three points when needed. Packers kicker Mason Crosby is a perfect 10 for 10 this season, and could get a lot of opportunities to put points on the board.

Advantage: Packers

Coaching

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

During John Fox’s tenures with the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos, his teams showed dramatic improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. At the almost halfway point in his second season with the Bears, it will be a miracle to duplicate the 6-10 season from 2015. Injuries have played a major part, but Fox and his staff have yet to put it all together. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy has a firmer grasp on his team than Fox has, and Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers is still one of the best in the business.

Advantage: Packers

Who Has the Overall Advantage?

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What this matchup comes down to is the simple fact that the Bears are unable to put points up on the board. Even with Aaron Rodgers playing like an average quarterback, Green Bay is still able to average more than 20 points per game (22.8). If games were decided by yardage alone, then Chicago would have a great chance of winning. Unfortunately, the 16.8 points per game they are averaging is reason enough to mark them down for another loss.

Overall Advantage: Packers

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