Buffalo Bills

Bills at Dolphins: Preview, Predictions, and More

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills come into their matchup against the Miami Dolphins as one of the hottest teams in the league. The Bills have won four straight games after starting the season 0-2. They also come to town as one of the most efficient teams in the league, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency and ninth in offensive efficiency, according to ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index.

The Miami Dolphins come into their third straight home game with something that has been missing all season. Momentum. The team finally got a huge win last Sunday, upsetting a heavily-favored Pittsburgh Steelers squad. Behind a career performance from running back Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins man-handled the Steelers on their way to a 30-15 victory. Now the team looks to take on the second-place (in the AFC East) Buffalo Bills and potentially turn their entire season around.

Here are the keys to victory for both teams in Week 7.

Bills Keys to Victory

Ride LeSean McCoy: In spite of being on a four-game winning streak and ranking inside the top ten in offensive efficiency, not all is well in the Buffalo offense. With the absence of Sammy Watkins, the Bills passing attack has been nothing short of anemic in 2016. Their top receiving target, Robert Woods, is outside of the top 75 in receiving yardage.

If the Bills are going to have any hope of coming out of Miami with their first five-game win streak since 2004, it’s going to be up to the running of LeSean “Shady” McCoy.

McCoy is the second leading rusher in the league, trailing only the rookie standout Ezekiel Elliott. McCoy should be able to continue his blistering performance, facing a Dolphins defense that is next-to-last against the run.

Exploit the Dolphins secondary: It’s tempting to say that the Bills should have a heavy focus on the run when facing one of the worst run defenses in the league. But if the Bills want to put their foot to the throat of the Dolphins defense, they need to find a way to break out of their funk and push the ball downfield.

If there was ever a time to improve on their passing offense, it’s this week. The Dolphins rank 15th against the pass in 2016, but that’s largely a product of a weak rushing defense. Why risk the pass when you can run for 4.5 yards per carry? This week, it’s because the Dolphins lost the leader of their secondary, Reshad Jones, to a torn rotator cuff. Exploit his replacement, Michael Thomas.

Tyrod Taylor: Tyrod Taylor might have to shoulder the load on Sunday and account for the bulk of the Bills offense. Running back LeSean McCoy is playing at an MVP caliber this season, and will be leaned on heavily if he’s able to play. However, that is a large if. McCoy suffered a hamstring injury in last week’s convincing victory against the 49ers.

If McCoy can’t go, former Dolphins running back Mike Gillislee would be the starter. Gillislee is a capable back, but he’s nowhere near McCoy’s talent or production value. If McCoy is sidelined, Taylor is going to have to fill the void and make some big plays for the Bills.

Dolphins Keys to Victory

Build on your momentum: For the first time all season, the Miami Dolphins finally have some momentum going into a game. Specifically on the offensive line. This squad has been much maligned over the course of the season, and rightly so. But they are finally healthy, and showed what they can do against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday.

The core group of Branden Albert, Laremy Tunsil, Mike Pouncey, Jermon Bushrod, and Ja’Wuan James combined to allow zero sacks. They also paved the way for running back Jay Ajayi to put up only the fifth 200-yard rushing performance in team history. Building on that momentum is a must this Sunday, and going forward the rest of the season.

Protect Michael Thomas: Reshad Jones being lost for the season is going to have a huge impact on the Dolphins secondary. There’s just no way around it. Jones has been arguably the best player on the Dolphins defense the past two seasons. But there’s no time to dwell on the injury, it’s a “next man up” league and everyone knows it.

Michael Thomas now has his turn to step up and show the team what he’s made of. Largely a special teams contributor so far for the team, Thomas will need to show that he’s no scrub. Expect the Bills to challenge the deep-middle of the field early and often, despite their own struggles in the passing game this season.

Slow down the pass rush: Quick! Without looking it up, can you name the league leader in sacks right now? If you couldn’t come up with the name Lorenzo Alexander, don’t feel bad. Alexander isn’t a household name by any stretch, but he’s currently leading the entire NFL with eight. Though the Dolphins offensive line didn’t give up a sack the entire game last week, they did give up 11 in the previous two. Stopping a strong Bills pass rush will be imperative to a Dolphins victory.

Odds

Point Spread: Buffalo -2.5
Moneyline: Buffalo -145, Miami +125
Over/Under: 44

Prediction

You can generally throw out the records when these two teams play. No matter what, the two yearly match-ups are hard-fought, physical struggles. I expect nothing less when the Bills and Dolphins square off on Sunday. Both teams have momentum and both teams are looking to solidify and set themselves up for a second-half push. I think the Dolphins come away with this one, but just barely.

Pick: Miami Dolphins 24 Buffalo Bills: 17