2025 NFL Divisional Round Picks: Best Bet for Every Game — Will's Wagers

After an electric weekend of football, only eight NFL teams are still standing, with seven precious games remaining until a champion is crowned. 

One thing we know is that we will have a new champion come February, as the Eagles were ousted by the 49ers this past Sunday, leaving the ‘90s Cowboys as the last NFC team to win back-to-back titles. 

If the Divisional Round is anywhere near as entertaining as Wild Card Weekend, then football fans better buckle up and get ready for 240 minutes of must-watch excitement. 

With four fun games on tap, let’s take a look at each one and find a best bet.

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No. 6 Bills @ No. 1 Broncos

Josh Allen Over 8.5 rushing attempts 

Some might have been surprised to see the top-seeded Broncos open up as home underdogs, especially considering that the 2017 Eagles were the last 1-seed to be an underdog in their first playoff game. Regardless of who wins this game and advances to the AFC title game, I expect Bills’ star quarterback Josh Allen to run early and often, just like he did in a win last week over the Jaguars. Allen finished with 11 carries in the victory, and I think a similar workload this week is likely. Keep in mind, kneel downs count as rush attempts as well, and Allen will look to call his own number plenty to get over the 8.5.

No. 6 49ers @ No. 1 Seahawks 

Under 44.5 combined points scored

These teams met in Week 18, with the Seahawks earning the NFC West title and first-round bye with a 13-3 win. The week prior, the Seahawks were held to just 4.4 yards per play against the Panthers. Before winning a shootout over the Rams, the Seahawks won an ugly 18-16 game against the Colts in Week 15. The Seahawks have an outstanding defense, but struggled on offense in the last month of the season. The 49ers come into this game without star tight end George Kittle, who tore his Achilles in a 23-19 win over Philadelphia. The meeting two weeks ago saw just one touchdown. I certainly expect more scoring this time around, but not quite enough to go over the total.

No. 5 Texans @ No. 1 Patriots 

First quarter Under 7.5 combined points scored

Both of these head coaches, Mike Vrabel and Demeco Ryans, are former defensive players in the NFL. Defensive-oriented coaches are typically more conservative and wary of protecting the ball, something neither the Patriots nor Texans did particularly well in the wild-card round. Patriots’ quarterback Drake Maye fumbled twice and threw an interception in the win over the Chargers, while Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud fumbled five times and also threw an interception despite defeating the Steelers. I think both teams will come into this game with an extra focus and emphasis on taking care of the ball first and foremost, a risk-averse approach that might lead to a low-scoring start in this one.  

No. 5 Rams @ No. 2 Bears

Bears +3.5

The Bears somehow did it again. In a season of incredible comebacks, the Bears outdid themselves last week, erasing a 15-point fourth-quarter deficit and stunning the rival Packers to advance. Now, they draw a warm-weather Rams team that is used to playing in comfy conditions, and will do so on what is looking like a frigid evening in the Windy City. Single-digit temperatures, mixed with opposing quarterback Matthew Stafford now dealing with a sprained finger on his throwing hand, is a combination that is perhaps enough to propel the Bears to the doorstep of the Super Bowl. No lead is safe against Chicago. I like them getting points at home. 

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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