National Basketball Association

Toronto Raptors 2016-17 Season Outlook: Building On Success

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 12:34 a.m. ET

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May 27, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guards Kyle Lowry (7) and DeMar DeRozan (10) sit together on the bench during a time out against Cleveland Cavaliers in game six of the Eastern conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre.The Cavaliers won 113-87. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Toronto Raptors won 56 games and went deep into the playoffs. Now, with a similar roster and high expectations, the team is still hungry

Last season, the Toronto Raptors rattled off the best year in franchise history, recorded 56 wins and pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers to six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. Now, in the aftermath of that season, the Raptors are gearing up for another run with a similar roster and high expectations.

The Raptors were fairly conservative in free agency, opting to keep existing talent rather than pursuing new stars. To that end, Toronto signed DeMar DeRozan to an extremely lucrative deal (that raised eyebrows across the league).

The team’s continuity was hurt by losing Bismack Biyombo (a key bench player) in free agency, but signing DeRozan was an understandably higher priority.

While one could criticize the Raptors for not making a bigger splash in free agency, the team’s roster strategy makes perfect sense. Coming off the heels of an Eastern Conference Finals appearance, it makes sense to try and keep the core players responsible for that success around as long as possible.

This team may not be positioned to knock off the Cavaliers next season, but it’s difficult to think of any reasonable moves in free agency that would have made a Finals appearance more likely than it currently is.

May 3, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) warms up prior to playing Miami Heat in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Roster

Toronto’s starting five looks unchanged. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan in the backcourt, DeMarre Carroll at the wing, and Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valanciunas at the four and five, respectively.

Newcomers Jared Sullinger and Jakob Poeltl appear primed to crack the rotation, but neither seems to be a likely threat to any of the starters.

Projected playing times at this point seem almost completely dependent on health. DeMarre Carroll only played in 26 games last year, and his backup (Terrence Ross) could see significant time if something similar happens again.

The Raptors’ 56 wins look a little more impressive in that context; they were missing a key player for well over 50 percent of the season.

Toronto Raptors’ fans have to feel good about the level of roster continuity coming into the year. Their key players are all back, and – if they can stay healthy – this projects well for Toronto’s future. This roster still lacks elite-level talent, but it’s difficult to find any significant weaknesses among the starters.

Apr 26, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Boston Celtics center Jared Sullinger (7) shoots the ball over Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) in the third quarter in game five of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Celtics 110-83. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Strengths And Weaknesses

Much like the continuity with the starting five, this team’s strengths and weaknesses should be (mostly) the same as last year. Toronto had the fifth-ranked offense last year (behind a 37% three-point mark for the team), and that should continue.

The defense was above average as well, coming in at 11th at the end of the year. With key contributors returning, this team should still be strong on both sides of the ball.

However, there are still reasons for concern. The Raptors’ don’t have a lot of depth, a problem compounded by losing Bismack Biyombo this summer. Without Biyombo, a Valanciunas injury could be devastating.

Lowry and DeRozan also played extremely well last season, and there’s a significant chance that one or both of these two regresses in 2016-17.

If the backcourt regresses, the offense could be in serious trouble. Lowry and DeRozan posted usage ratings of 29.8 percent and 26.1 percent respectively, and outside of these two this team lacks a true playmaker.

May 3, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) takes a shot against Miami Heat in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Raptors’ Best Player: Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry is without a doubt this team’s best player. He shoots and passes well, and there’s no doubt that he is the Raptors’ on-court leader. Toronto fans have also pointed out that Team USA played better in the Olympics when he was on the court, a reminder of Lowry’s skill.

Toronto’s path to success lies squarely on Lowry’s shoulders this season. At age 30, he isn’t young anymore, but there also doesn’t seem to be much evidence of a precipitous drop-off in the near future. Instead, the Raptors need Lowry to play consistently, and stay healthy.

After playing in 77 games last season, Lowry’s health shouldn’t be too much of a concern. It is slightly worrisome that he went through cold spells last season (most notably at the beginning of the Cleveland series), but these shouldn’t raise too many alarm bells either.

Lowry has proven that he can lead this high-powered offense. While he may not play at his 2015-16 level this year, it is reasonable to still expect a good season from him.

May 7, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) takes a breather during the third quarter in game three of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

Ultimately, the biggest reason to expect the Raptors to fall off this season is the Boston Celtics. Boston added Al Horford in free agency, and looks poised to compete near the top of the East. This, compared with the perception that Toronto outplayed its talent last season, is enough for may to slot Toronto into third place.

A third place finish might be disappointing after the 56 wins last season, but as long as this team stays healthy and plays consistently, the Raptors will be well-poised to make another playoff run. Any finish below third seems unlikely, and this team boasts good talent.

Ultimately, Lowry will probably take at least a small step back this season. How big that step is will determine where Toronto finishes, since his presence on the court is so vital to this team’s success.

The lack of depth should also be an issue, although, once again, there’s still plenty of talent in the starting five.

Final prediction: 50-32, Eastern Conference Finals