Indiana Pacers: The Pros And Cons Of Trading Paul George This Summer

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 12:45 p.m. ET

Fansided, Gerald Bourguet/FanSided via Hoops Habit

Apr 6, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) brings the ball up court against the Milwaukee Bucks at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana defeats Milwaukee 104-99. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

It feels like the clock is ticking on Paul George's time with the Indiana Pacers, but should they consider trading him as early as this summer? Here are the pros and cons.

Generally speaking, when a team has a top-10 player in the NBA, it has at least the foundation for building a good team. Play your cards right and that kind of supperstar can attract other premier talent. Draft well, land a great player or two in free agency, swing a trade here and there, and you've got the makings of a championship contender.

The Indiana Pacers have such a player in Paul George, as 2013 and 2014 showed us, you can build a championship-caliber team around him. Those Pacers pushed LeBron James' Miami Heat powerhouse to seven games in the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals, and even snagged the No. 1 seed in the East in 2014 before crumbling in a six-game series in the conference finals.

But with the exception of an injury-prone (and possibly washed up) Lance Stephenson, PG-13 is now the only starter from those teams still in Indiana. Roy Hibbert, George Hill, David West and Ian Mahinmi are all gone, and none of George's current cohorts have lived up to their ends of the bargain.

Heading into the season, many thought Indiana had enough horses to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. At 39-40, the Pacers are not only a losing team, but they're currently barely in the playoff field at all, clinging to the No. 8 seed in the East.

With George hitting free agency in 2018 and Los Angeles Lakers whispers growing louder, it's not surprising the Pacers toyed around with the idea of trading him. Such a decision would obviously come with major ramifications, regardless of what happens for the rest of the 2016-17 season.

The question is, should the Pacers seriously consider making Paul George available via trade on draft day? Here's a look at the potential pros and cons of such a franchise-altering decision.

Jan 20, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) passes the ball against Los Angeles Lakers forward Julius Randle (30) at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Pro: Get Something For Him While You Can…

The Pacers are not a championship-caliber team. In fact, they might not even be a playoff-caliber team if they don't take advantage of an easier remaining schedule compared to the ninth place Miami Heat. But even if they make the playoffs, and even if PG-13 has the series of his life against the Cavaliers or Celtics, the Pacers are probably going home in the first round.

Back in February, George's made his stipulation for sticking with Indiana for the long haul quite simple: Give me the opportunity to contend for a championship and I'll re-sign.

It's a pretty straight forward mandate, but one that's much harder to execute with a few years left on the contracts of deadweight like Monta Ellis, Al Jefferson and even Thaddeus Young. Unless Larry Bird had the summer of his GM life and Myles Turner makes the leap in Year 3, the Pacers still won't be a championship-caliber team in 2017-18.

That's a bit of a problem with George's 2018 free agency looming and the threat of the Los Angeles Lakers looming larger than life:

PG-13 won't be contending for titles with the Lakers anytime soon thanks to their young roster that's full of question marks, but adding a star to that team brings back some of the luster for free agents. In any case, it's a place where George feels comfortable and the Lakers would be more than willing to dole out huge chunks of money to land a certified star.

In that scenario, the Pacers could very well lose him for nothing. Barring a 2017 offseason in which Bird can find a better point guard in free agency (re-signing Teague is not the answer there), get rid of Ellis' and Jefferson's contracts and land another star on the market, Indiana is not in a great position to convince George that the franchise is heading on the path back to contention.

With the team's star clearly frustrated and the Pacers on the precipice of missing the postseason altogether, draft day 2017 might represent the best chance Larry Bird has to get something in return for his superstar before potentially losing for nothing him next summer.

Mar 22, 2017; Boston, MA, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) returns up court against the Boston Celtics in the second half at TD Garden. Celtics defeated the Pacers 109-100. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Con: …But It Won't Be Full Value

One trade does not set the market value for another, so don't go thinking the minimal return Sacramento got in the DeMarcus Cousins trade somehow influences what the Pacers could get for Paul George.

However, there's no question that PG-13 has put Indiana in a very tough spot now that everyone knows how serious a threat the Lakers are to win his heart in 2018 free agency.

If Bird started listening to any and all offers, there would be plenty of teams that would make sense as trade suitors, and plenty of them could put together an enticing offer.

Teams with young superstars of the future like the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns could put together a great package to aid Indiana's rebuild around Myles Turner. Teams hoping to pursue higher playoff spots like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans, Washington Wizards would have to at least consider picking up the phone, even if they might not be able to put together a Godfather offer.

But if the Pacers trade Paul George, it's because they fear losing him in free agency next summer to the Lakers for nothing. That same worry considerably narrows down the list of teams who'd be interested, since they'd need to have a championship-caliber roster to entice him into re-signing for the long-term.

Denver reportedly put together a monster offer for George at the trade deadline, but were told (presumably by George's camp) that they'd lose him in free agency.

Denver today made a "monster" offer to Indiana for Paul George, league sources tell @ChrisBHaynes and me, but the talks gained no traction.

— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) February 23, 2017

Basically, the list of teams that could both put together an adequate offer and have a good chance of re-signing George is narrowed down to the Lakers and the Boston Celtics, who engaged with discussions with both the Pacers for George and the Chicago Bulls for Jimmy Butler at this year's trade deadline. However, it'd make no sense for the Lakers to trade for him when they could just sign him in 2018, so it's really just Boston.

General manager Danny Ainge has probably overvalued his assets at this point, but once we know where that valuable Brooklyn Nets first round pick falls in this year's draft, he could very easily have a top-three pick — or, most likely, the No. 1 overall pick — to dangle in front of Larry Bird's face.

If it turns out to be the No. 1 overall pick and Ainge is willing to play ball rather than clog his backcourt even more in a guard-heavy draft, Bird would have to think about taking that kind of offer, even after resisting the offers that poured in at this year's trade deadline.

Per @ZachLowe_NBA, the Pacers engaged at least the Celtics, Suns, Sixers & Nuggets in trade talks for Paul George at the deadline.

— Harrison Wind (@NBAWind) March 21, 2017

The Celtics could offer something like Jae Crowder, Tyler Zeller (as salary cap filler) and the No. 1 overall pick, possibly even throwing in a young sweetener like Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown or another future first round pick as well. That would help put young talent around 21-year-old Myles Turner for the long term.

Boston wants to contend now and it has the assets to make a big offer for a superstar who'd complete the roster. That need helps balance out the disadvantage Indiana has due to the Lakers rumors, since the Celtics would have a better chance of contending for a title with George and, therefore, stand a better chance of re-signing him in 2018.

Tonight's duel for the 1-seed fell short — what, or whom, are the Celtics missing? @ChrisRyan77 https://t.co/w7pUcj5xG4

— The Ringer (@ringer) April 6, 2017

However, the Bulls could very easily swoop in and pull off a Jimmy Butler blockbuster deal with the Celtics if the Pacers hesitate, and a possible trade partners list with one team on it doesn't leave much room for leverage in negotiations.

With everyone afraid that trading for George would mean sacrificing future assets for a one-year rental, his trade value is not as high as it should be for a player of his talents. That could very well force Bird to either kid himself into thinking he can make PG-13 happy for the long-term and subsequently lose him for nothing, or it could put Indiana in a corner where they have to accept far less value than they would've, simply to avoid losing him for nothing.

Apr 4, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) celebrates a three point basket and a lead over the Toronto Raptors with teammate center Myles Turner (33) the game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Pacers beat the Raptors 108-90. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Pro: Build Around Myles Turner

Paul George and Myles Turner could be a terrifying two-way duo in this league one day, especially if the Pacers' young starting center makes the leap in Year 3. But let's not kid ourselves here: One turns 27 years old in May, while the other is barely old enough to legally drink alcohol in this country.

More than likely, Turner's prime will not coincide with the tail-end of George's, and even if it did, there's no guarantee PG-13 will be around long enough to see it. One promising youngster may not be enough to convince George that this team has championship potential, especially when he wants to contend in the here and now.

To that end, if the Pacers feel that George might leave them for nothing in free agency, wouldn't it make sense to not only get something in return for him now, but to also aid the unavoidable rebuild by assembling a younger core around Turner?

With no trade deadline deals, Paul George and Jimmy Butler are now the summer's hottest commodities https://t.co/g6QllflvMe

— The Ringer (@ringer) February 25, 2017

The Lakers rumors might prevent teams like the Suns or Nuggets from making an offer, which is unfortunate considering all the young talent and future draft picks they'd put on the table. But if the Celtics are willing to open up the treasure trove and make that Nets pick available, that's one hell of a place to start a rebuild.

If it does turn out to be the No. 1 pick and the Pacers trade for it, Indiana could have its pick in a guard-heavy draft that features future star floor generals like Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball. They wouldn't have to worry about overspending to re-sign Jeff Teague and could go all in on a youth movement.

A core of Turner, a top-three draft pick this year and whatever other young player Indiana could pry from Boston (Rozier, Brown, Marcus Smart, etc.) would be a great foundation for the future and not a bad place to start after trading away a top-10 player like Paul George.

It certainly wouldn't put the Pacers back on the quick path to contention, but it'd give them a few cornerstones to build around for the future.

Mar 26, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) slam dunks the ball in the second half of the game against the Philadelphia 76ers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Indiana Pacers beat the Philadelphia 76ers 107-94. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Con: Losing A Superstar Player

Earlier we alluded to the possibility that Paul George's prime won't coincide with Myles Turner's, but we should be fair: PG-13 won't turn 26 until May, which means he's still very much in his prime. Trading away a top-10 player in that age range is exceedingly difficult to do, no matter the circumstances.

From fans' emotions to ticket sales to primetime coverage to playoff earnings to jersey sales to the simple loss of on-court talent, trading a star player away will set any NBA franchise on a long and winding path back to relevance.

Paul George is no exception. This season he's averaging 23.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.6 steals per game while shooting 45.5 percent from the floor and 39 percent from three-point range.

In addition to his improved long range shot, PG-13 doubles as one of the best wing defenders in the NBA, and with the Pacers needing him to step up to keep their playoff hopes alive he's delivered, averaging 27.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game on blistering .491/.418/.865 shooting splits since the start of March.

According to NBA.com, the Pacers are 8.1 points per 100 possessions better on the offensive end with George on the court, and they're also 1.2 points per 100 possessions stingier on defense. Turner could be a future unicorn in this league, but trading away PG-13 quite clearly puts the Pacers into the tanking picture.

You can't replace George's specific brand of two-way production, even if the Pacers landed a future star wing like Josh Jackson or Jayson Tatum in this year's draft. In fact, Paul George is exactly what you'd hope those players could turn into one day. Trading a player like that away takes some serious thought, even with the threat of losing him in free agency.

Dec 7, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Monta Ellis (left), center Myles Turner (center and forward Paul George in the huddle with teammates prior to the game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Pacers defeated the Suns 109-94. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Pro: Dealing With Bad Contracts

If the Pacers shudder at the thought of dealing George for less than his full value, they may try (again) to make him happy by drastically overhauling the roster over the summer. That's a tough endeavor after bringing aboard longer contracts last summer, but it's one path Bird could take.

Unfortunately, it's hard to see how he could so drastically improve a roster with so many depreciating assets that hold little trade value on the open market.

Monta Ellis fell off a lot quicker than people expected; Jeff Teague is nowhere near the defender or perimeter shooter that George Hill was, and he's also a free agent this summer; Al Jefferson is injured again and never panned out as the Sixth Man of the Year dark horse some thought he'd be; Thaddeus Young has been consistent but mediocre; and as much as Myles Turner looks like the future of the franchise, he's not ready to be PG-13's superstar sidekick in just his second season.

pacers

8 Points, 9 Seconds 23hLance Stephenson is More Than a Sideshow for the Indiana Pacers

More headlines around FanSided:

1 d - Indiana Pacers: Paul George Heating Up At The Right Time 1 d - The Indiana Pacers Should Make the Playoffs, But They've Got Some Work To Do 1 d - Indiana Pacers: The Lance Stephenson Effect 2d - Post-Game Grades: Lance Stephenson and the Indiana Pacers Piss Off the Toronto Raptors 2d - Paul George and LeBron James Rekindled Their Rivalry In Dramatic FashionMore News at 8 Points, 9 Seconds

Lineups with Teague, PG-13 and Young boast a +2.2 Net Rating, per NBA.com, so they could re-sign Teague if they don't get carried away with his new contract. Letting Teague walk and wooing a replacement like Chris Paul, George Hill or Jrue Holiday sounds nice on paper, but those may be unrealistic targets and even if the Pacers got one of them, they wouldn't address the roster's other glaring flaws because those players would eat through major cap space.

Conversely, if Indiana decides to trade its superstar and commit to a full-scale rebuild, it's not as vital to shed all the deadweight contracts like Ellis and Jefferson. The Pacers could let Teauge walk, but they have to field a 15-man roster somehow while they're tanking; why not keep mediocre veterans who could instruct the younger players without leading to wins?

Young and Ellis can opt out of their contracts in 2018, and even if they keep their player options to remain in Indiana, that's only 1-2 years before they're off the books. Jefferson's deal is non-guaranteed for the 2018-19 season, putting him in a similar boat.

With Teague hitting free agency and C.J. Miles able to opt out of his contract this summer, the Pacers could have a drastically different roster one or two years down the road. Rather than rushing to restructure the team to suit Paul George's interests in yet another failed endeavor to assemble a contender, trading him and letting those contracts come off the books in due time might be a more sensical path.

Mar 8, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) and forward Paul George (13) block out for a rebound against the Detroit Pistons at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Con: Set The Franchise Back Half A Decade

There's no sugarcoating it though: Throughout NBA history, especially recently, trading a top-10 player is usually pretty painful for the next couple of seasons. It's almost impossible to get full value in a blockbuster trade, and many franchises take years to recover from that kind of loss.

The Orlando Magic have been in a constant state of free fall ever since trading Dwight Howard. Dealing away Kevin Love has the Minnesota Timberwolves on the path of yet another full-scale rebuild, and no matter how promising their future looks, it will take some time to end a 13-year playoff drought. It'll probably take the Sacramento Kings another decade to get their act together after dealing away Boogie.