Mar 22, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) reacts during the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets won 126-113. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
The Cleveland Cavaliers are still the favorites to win the East in the 2017 NBA Playoffs, but here's why it's not as set in stone as we once thought.
Following the tradition of every team with a LeBron James on its roster over the last seven years, the Cleveland Cavaliers are hands down the best team in the Eastern Conference. They have its best record, its best point differential, its best player and its best Big Three.
More than likely, the Cavs will be heading to their third consecutive NBA Finals, which would mark seven straight for King James.
HOWEVER.
Before we go anointing the King atop the Eastern throne by default, it's worth noting that this year's Cleveland squad looks as vulnerable as it has since the team first came together in 2014-15.
There is no true rival for them in the East, and come early June, no one would be surprised to see Part 3 of Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors in the Finals. Even if the Dubs don't hold up their end of the bargain against a tougher Western Conference playoff field, the safe bet still feels like Cleveland representing the East.
But that fine line between the Cavaliers and the rest of the East isn't as definitive as it used to be. Even if this is yet another case of a LeBron-led team coasting through the regular season only to flip to the switch come playoff time, here are five reasons the Cavs shouldn't be considered locks to win the East in 2017.
Feb 11, 2017; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyle Korver (26) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Derrick Williams (3) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Richard Jefferson (24) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Channing Frye (8) during the first half against the Denver Nuggets at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
5. The Bench
Last season, the Cavaliers powered their way to the title with a six-man core. Their bench was virtually unplayable in the Finals, and the focus of general manager David Griffin's moves ever since has revolved around supplying his star-studded starting five with extra depth.
But as much as Griffin was lauded for adding Kyle Korver, Derrick Williams, Deron Williams, Andrew Bogut and Larry Sanders, Cleveland's bench has been as underwhelming as ever.
On the season, Cleveland's bench has posted a point differential of -0.5, which ranks 15th in the league. That's not too terrible considering how much firepower is in the starting five, but it's mattered over the last few weeks with Kevin Love and J.R. Smith out of the lineup.
The Cavs' second unit is only averaging 29.8 points per game on the season, which ranks them 28th in the association among bench units. They're shooting a league-leading 40.2 percent from downtown, but they rank in the bottom three teams for rebounds per game, assists per game and defensive rating.
Bogut might have helped in those areas, but he's done for the season. Korver is not a great defender, for all his shooting prowess. Deron Williams looks washed so far during his Cavs tenure, and though Derrick Williams has been solid, Cleveland's bench is not as improved as we thought it'd be.
Come playoff time, when the rotations shorten, this may not matter as much. But in a tougher Eastern Conference, every minute the starters can rest is a gift. If the Cavaliers can't provide LeBron, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love with decent breaks from the action to recharge, things could get more interesting as we advance deeper into the postseason.
Nov 23, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) and guard J.R. Smith (5) celebrate a three point basket in the first quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
4. Lingering Injuries
As of right now, the Cleveland Cavaliers have everyone but Andrew Bogut available to them. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll be entering the postseason 100 percent healthy, however.
Though there are still three weeks of regular season left to shake off rust and make sure everyone's batteries are fully charged, the Cavs have several key players trying to rediscover their rhythm and get past recent injuries.
This headline came from January, and matters haven't really gotten much better since:
LeBron: Physical Woes are 'Slowing Up Our Process' https://t.co/buOVfrpDPa pic.twitter.com/rnregxQNHO
— Basketball Insiders (@BBallInsiders) January 5, 2017
J.R. Smith has been back for eight games after missing 11 weeks with a thumb injury, but since he's returned, he's averaging only 6.9 points per game on an abysmal 29 percent shooting from the field and 24.5 percent from three-point range.
That's nowhere near the 12.4 points per game on .415/.400/.634 shooting splits he put up last season.
Kevin Love put up a promising 21 points and 15 rebounds in just his second game back after missing 13 games following arthroscopic knee surgery, but in his other two games, he's posted just 19 points and 16 rebounds combined.
Given his propensity for injuries over the past few seasons in Cleveland (and his entire career, for that matter), it's not a good sign he's already trying to shake off injury-related rust.
Bogut is done for the year after looking like a solid source of frontcourt depth, rim protection, rebounding and passing. Kyle Korver recently missed seven games with a foot injury, and shot just 3-for-9 from the floor in his first game back.
This could be much ado about nothing, but all these players missing games has put extra strain on LeBron James' NBA odometer, and will continue to do so if these nagging injuries rear their heads again over the next month or two.
Dec 5, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) tries for a three point basket as Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) defends at Air Canada Centre. Cleveland won 116-112. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
3. A Tougher Path
Last year, the Cavaliers swept the Detroit Pistons in the first round, swept the Atlanta Hawks in the second round and downed the Toronto Raptors in six games — five of which were complete blowouts. By the time they got to the NBA Finals, they'd enjoyed plenty of time to rest their starters, and barely had to play their bench because of it.
Against a tougher Eastern Conference playoff field, the Cavs may not enjoy that same luxury on their path back to the championship round.
Assuming the Cavaliers hang on to their No. 1 seed, two of their possible first round opponents are the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks. Though neither one of those could knock off Cleveland in a seven-game series, they could at least make matters interesting, especially since both are playing better basketball than the Cavs right now.
The Bucks have won 10 of their last 12 games, and have a Giannis Antetokounmpo–Khris Middleton–Tony Snell trio to throw at LeBron. The Greek Freak could be ready for a coming-of-age moment in a head-to-head series with LeBron, and though he'd probably lose, he could at least make the opening series more competitive than last year's sweep of Detroit.
LeBron James didn't want any of what Giannis Antetokounmpo was selling#OwnTheFuture pic.twitter.com/grY5r0Vjxp
— Def Pen Hoops (@DefPenHoops) December 21, 2016
As for the Heat, they're one of the hottest teams in basketball, and probably the one first round opponent Cleveland would like to avoid. Miami has won 24 of its last 31 games since starting the season 11-30, coming together under Erik Spoelstra as a complete team that's firing on all cylinders.
Star players win playoff series, but the Heat have multiple players who can beat opponents on any given night, from a resurgent Goran Dragic to a dominant Hassan Whiteside to Tyler Johnson and James Johnson off the bench. Though Dion Waiters' potential absence might deprive us of a revenge game or two, Miami has found a sustainable and potentially dangerous groove that the Cavaliers would rather not face that early in the playoffs.
Dion Waiters hits daggers 3 from deep, then talks trash to Cavs fans pic.twitter.com/wvbskvaOAU
— gifdsports (@gifdsports) March 7, 2017
Again, neither one of these teams would knock the Cavs out of the first round, but if the current seeding holds, Cleveland would face one of the NBA's hottest teams out of the gate. Their reward in the second round? A potential semifinal series against the revamped Toronto Raptors.
There's no question the Raptors need Kyle Lowry to quickly shake off the rust of his current wrist injury to truly contend, but their trade deadline moves to acquire Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker bolstered a defense that was already in the top 10.
DeMar DeRozan has upgraded his game like never before to make up for Lowry's absence, Toronto's role players have stepped up as well and assuming the current seeding holds, the Raptors at full strength would present a formidable challenge as early as the semis.
.@Raptors have a 135.9 ORTG and 96.8 DRTG when Serge Ibaka plays small-ball 5 & Tucker is in the game, per @nbastats https://t.co/22pcxytIjj
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) March 8, 2017
If the Raptors surpass the Washington Wizards for the No. 3 seed, Cleveland still isn't off the hook, since John Wall's squad has been another one of the East's hottest teams, winning 27 of their 39 games since the calendar flipped to 2017.
Wall is the kind of defensive-minded point guard who could hinder Kyrie Irving in a playoff series, Bradley Beal is playing the best basketball of his career, Otto Porter Jr. has become a three-point sniper and the Wizards' starting five is one of the best in the league.
LeBron's teams haven't faced a potential second round matchup this harrowing in quite some time, and even if they'd be favored in a series against Toronto or Washington, the path back to the conference finals won't be as cut and dry as it's been in years past.
Mar 1, 2017; Boston, MA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) is guarded by Boston Celtics point guard Marcus Smart (36) during the first quarter at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
2. A True Challenger
Again, there's no guarantee the Cavs will face the Heat or the Bucks in the first round, nor is it set in stone that Washington or Toronto would be waiting in the second round. But if the Boston Celtics make it to the conference finals, Cleveland may face its toughest Eastern opponent since LeBron James came home in 2014.
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Simply put, the Celtics are as well constructed to take down the Cavs juggernaut as any team in the East. They've got a fringe MVP candidate in Isaiah Thomas who can take advantage of Kyrie Irving's lackluster defense. They've also got two stifling backcourt defenders who can make life hell for Kyrie in Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart.
They've got a quality two-way wing in Jae Crowder who will do his best to hold onto the monster that is LeBron James. They boast underrated albeit young depth, plus a quality head coach in Brad Stevens. They also have an advantage in an incredible two-way center like Al Horford, who can stretch the defense and defend out to the perimeter on the other end.
Throw in the fact that the city of Boston hates LeBron James, that the TD Garden will be rockin' for every home game and that the Celtics are only one game behind Cleveland in the standings for that No. 1 seed and things could get interesting in a potential Eastern Conference Finals matchup.
To be truthful, the Cavaliers would still be favored here. LeBron relishes any opportunity to break Boston's heart in the playoffs, Kevin Love would be looking for a revenge series after the Kelly Olynyk incident in 2015, and this Celtics group hasn't even won a playoff series together yet.
But if the Bucks/Heat force the Cavs to play an extra game or two in the first round, and if the Raptors can push them to six or seven games in the semis, the Celtics may stand a better chance against a Cleveland side that won't have the same rest advantage as last year.
If that's the case, Boston represents a real challenge for the Cavaliers, especially as a team that's won 26 of its 38 games in 2017 and seems to be coming together at the perfect time.
Jan 29, 2017; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) talks with guard Kyrie Irving (2) during the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavs won 107-91. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
1. The Defense
If any team deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to "flipping the switch," it's a defending champion, LeBron James-led Cavaliers team. However, Cleveland will have one hell of a switch to flip when it comes to the defensive end, where the effort has been lackluster all season.
On the season, the Cavs' defensive numbers are fairly alarming, even for a team with the NBA's fourth best record:
Since the All-Star break, those numbers have gotten even worse, plummeting to concerning new lows:
This is not the same as last year's championship team, which ranked 10th in defensive rating heading into the postseason. From LeBron to Kyrie to Love to the edges of the roster, this team has simply not cared enough about playing defense.
Their third-ranked offense usually more than makes up for their bottom-third defense, but it's gotten so bad recently that the Cavaliers have lost eight of their last 14 games behind poor defensive efforts.
That needs to change in the playoffs, or the defending champs could find their backs against the wall well before the conference finals even arrive.
Maybe Cleveland will flip the switch when the games matter and LeBron simply stops allowing his team to lose, but this Cavs defense is as vulnerable as it's ever been over the last three years. It'd take a drastic overnight turnaround to make the Cavaliers look like overwhelming locks to win the East again.
For like the 23rd time, we should emphasize that the Cleveland Cavaliers should still be the favorites to represent the East in the 2017 NBA Finals. But it's not as set in stone as we once thought, and there are plenty of reasons to believe this team is more vulnerable than Cavs fans are comfortable with as the playoffs approach.
