NASCAR Cup Series

Double trouble: Roush teammates Edwards, Biffle on the ropes at Dover

Published Sep. 26, 2014 9:45 a.m. ET

Larry McReynolds

The biggest thing I am going to be looking for this weekend at Dover is Jimmie Johnson. For the last two or three months we have all been raising an eyebrow about the No. 48 team because there are still a lot of questions about them. Since his win at Michigan in June, which was 13 races ago, last Sunday at Loudon was only Jimmie's third top-five finish during that period. On top of that, Jimmie has only led twenty-something laps in those 13 races.

Sunday is the measuring stick. Dover is Jimmie Johnson's own personal playhouse. Not only did he win there in the spring Dover race, but Jimmie is the winningest driver at Dover with nine wins. So to me that is going to be the biggest thing we are going to be looking for.

I'm also anxious to see how the Roush Fenway teams do this weekend. They truly seem like they are in big trouble. I, for one, won't be the least bit surprised if one or even both of their drivers get eliminated from the Chase after Sunday's race. Greg Biffle is on the outside looking in right now while teammate Carl Edwards is only eight points to the good as far as advancing to the next round goes.

Even though Loudon and Dover are 1-mile tracks, they couldn't be more different in so many ways. One thing that is somewhat consistent in the trends at both tracks is the trends we've seen in the past. We probably will see a fair amount of cautions on Sunday while at the same time we'll have some long green-flag runs.

Obviously the biggest thing after the checkered flag waves Sunday at Dover is this is it for four Chase drivers. The bottom four of the 16 Chase drivers will not advance to the next round. Their 2014 Chase for the Championship will be over. We have nine Chase drivers this Sunday only separated by 18 points. That really isn't a lot.

When we get to the last 100 laps on Sunday, I am going to be really interested to see how those drivers who are in the last four spots react. As Darrell Waltrip is fond of saying, "Desperate people do desperate things," and normally it doesn't have a good outcome.

As much as I didn't think there was any way to intensify the energy along with the pain and agony that we are seeing on the faces of these drivers, crew chiefs and crew members, well, I am seeing it now. These 16 teams are stressing big time about how this format is.

See, in the past, if you had a bad race in the Chase, the pressure was off. You were done for that year's Chase. Now this year with the new format, take a look at Aric Almirola -- he's the poster child for "it's not over until it's over." In the first race of the 2014 Chase, he blows a motor and finishes 41st at Chicago. He bounces back at Loudon last Sunday with a sixth-place finish and, sure, while he's still in the last spot, he's only 10 points out of being able to advance to the next round. I honestly can't tell you that there are a lot of folks who would have given Aric a shot at moving on, but he still has a legitimate shot.

Remember, we've never raced under this new format before. We are creating a template as we go with each race and each round. Dover is going to be exciting. There is so much on the line for all 16 teams, but for four, unfortunately it will be "over in Dover."

VIDEO: Chase driver AJ Allmendinger discusses perils of racing at Dover