Major League Baseball

NLCS: Tim Lincecum can make big statement tonight for underdog Giants

Published Oct. 16, 2010 11:00 a.m. ET

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PHILADELPHIA -- It is appropriate that the Giants are handing the ball to Tim Lincecum in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series today.

Sure, folks stopped underestimating the Giants' undersized ace years ago. But with the baseball universe gushing fear and respect for the Philadelphia Phillies, Lincecum might as well be Bugs Bunny facing the Gas-House Gorillas, minus the chomping cigars.

The Phillies are on the verge of becoming one of the most powerful dynasties in National League history. They are fully aware that they could become the first NL team to win three consecutive pennants since the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals. They are motivated to achieve it, too.

And the widely held assumption is that they will. In a national ESPN poll, 73 percent of respondents expect the Phillies to win this series. Only 8 percent expect the Giants to go all the way -- by far the lowest total of the four remaining teams, and not even half of what the Texas Rangers (19 percent) were getting.

The Giants don't run from their role as underdogs. But call them a speed bump? Now you're getting a little personal.

"I don't think it's proving anything to anybody," said Lincecum, who will oppose Roy Halladay in a pitching matchup for the ages. "We all know what we're capable of, what we have to do. Score more runs than the other team."

It doesn't look good on paper. The Phillies scored the second-most runs in the National League. The only team that scored more? The Cincinnati Reds, whom the Phillies held to a .124 average and four runs over three games while sweeping the opening round.

The Phillies have it all -- a dangerous lineup, an intimidating home environment and three aces to match the Giants' trio. And they have been here before.

"You're not wondering, are you good enough to win?" Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins said. "Nothing's guaranteed, but with experience, you're not going to panic or worry about the ups and downs. You know guys are going to execute."

But there are reasons the Giants can win. Three of them, off the top of Aaron Rowand's head.

"Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez," the Giants outfielder said. "Now, I guarantee you if you asked them, they'd say Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.

"You look around the NL, and I think everyone would tell you the best two pitching staffs belonged to the Phillies and the Giants. It's no coincidence we're here. That's just how this game works."

It will work well for the home-run-dependent Giants if the games are up for grabs in the late innings. It means more torture, yes, but the bullpen might be the one area where they hold a clear edge.

The Giants have so many high-velocity arms, they won't all make their 25-man roster. Their 2.99 ERA was second best in the National League, and they posted the best strand rate (76.3 percent) despite inheriting the most runners (278). The group kept getting better, too, compiling a 0.90 ERA in September.

If the Giants are trailing, manager Bruce Bochy has the freedom to use a pinch hitter for Lincecum or another starting pitcher because he has so many reliable relief options. The same might not be true for Phillies manager Charlie Manuel.

The Phillies' 4.02 bullpen ERA ranked 10th among 16 NL teams, and they have few intimidating options aside from setup man Ryan Madson and closer Brad Lidge. Chad Durbin relies on ground balls, and left-hander J.C. Romero isn't trusted to pitch full innings.

Want more reasons to think positive, Giants fans?

The Phillies have had a long layoff, pitching just four relief innings since the Oct. 3 season finale. Their hitters didn't exactly pelt the Reds, either, posting a .212 average in the series. And the layoff could affect the bats, too, especially against a Giants staff that led the league in strikeouts.

The Giants' homer-addicted lineup actually might benefit from the first two games at Citizens Bank Park -- especially former Phillie Pat Burrell, whose dead-pull power influenced the design of the short fence in left field. The forecast calls for breezy conditions as well.

"I'd say they're maybe the best team in the NL we've played," Lidge said. "Everybody talks about their starting pitching, but when you look at their lineup, one through eight can all hit and drive in runs. They'll definitely be a very good challenge. I expect this to be a very tough series."

But there comes a point where you can pay too much respect to the opponent. Manuel, that wise ol' codger, is aware of that. Perhaps that's why he proclaimed that the Phillies' lineup would rise to the occasion in this series.

"We can score on anybody," Manuel said. "We can score on the Giants."

It's up to Lincecum -- and his cartoonish changeup -- to stop them in Game 1.

For more on the Giants, see Andrew Baggarly's Extra Baggs blog at blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs .

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