Major League Baseball

Cole is the draft hit that makes Pirates fans forget all the misses

Published May. 15, 2015 6:09 a.m. ET

Ken Rosenthal

Baseball history is littered with teams that blew it by choosing a pitcher with the first pick of the amateur draft. From David Clyde to Brien Taylor, Matt Anderson to Bryan Bullington, the list of busts is as notable as the list of successes.

The Pirates are part of that history -- they chose Bullington in 2002 over Zack Greinke, Kris Benson in 1996 over Eric Chavez. Such is the hit-and-miss nature of pitchers at No. 1, making the team’s choice of right-hander Gerrit Cole in 2011 that much more impressive.

“You can go back through the 50 years of the draft and I would say almost without exception, the top five would be completely redone, let alone the top 20, let alone the first round,” Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said. “It is the nature of the beast. It is much more art than science.”

Huntington is well aware of the pitfalls of the first round – the Pirates took third baseman Pedro Alvarez second in 2008, just ahead of Eric Hosmer and Buster Posey, and catcher Tony Sanchez fourth in ’09 ahead of Mike Trout, Drew Storen and A.J. Pollock, among others (though 22 other teams also passed on Trout).

But Cole, who will start at Wrigley Field on Saturday against Cubs left-hander Jon Lester (FOX Sports 1, 4:05 p.m. ET), has emerged as precisely what the Pirates envisioned when they drafted him as a junior out of UCLA -- a legitimate ace.

The choice wasn’t simple -- Cole went 6-8 with a 3.31 ERA for UCLA, while his teammate, right-hander Trevor Bauer, went 13-2 with a 1.25 ERA and led the nation with 203 strikeouts and 10 complete games.

Two high-school pitchers out of Oklahoma, righties Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy, also attracted considerable attention. So did University of Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen and Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon.

The Pirates strongly considered Bradley, Hultzen and Rendon, according to Greg Smith, who was the team’s scouting director at the time and since has been promoted to assistant GM. But in the end, club officials believed Cole offered the greatest upside.

“Watching Gerrit that year reminded me of scouting (Justin) Verlander when I was with Detroit,” said Smith, who was the Tigers’ scouting director when the team made Verlander the second overall pick in 2004.

“I remember with Justin, he didn’t have a breakout season. He didn’t perform statistically off the charts. But you saw the ability to reach back. You saw some competitiveness. Watching Gerrit at UCLA, seeing him in probably a half-dozen starts, I probably was light on how competitive he was . . . he’s even more competitive than what we realized, certainly than what I realized.

“He would overthrow at times. But even as a college guy, a young junior at the time -- he was 20 that year -- I felt there was more in the tank. There was some polish, but there was also some roughness that needed to be smoothed out, worked through and harnessed. He wasn’t that advanced college pitcher where you’re like, ‘What you see is what you get.’ We felt that there was a little more in there.”

Smith said the decision to select Cole wasn’t “completely clear-cut” due to Cole’s uneven performance as a junior and that club officials engaged in the usual spirited debate during the team’s pre-draft meetings at Pirate City in Bradenton, Fla.

But others, including UCLA coach John Savage and former Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers, believed the Pirates were leaning toward Cole all along.

Towers, who held the Nos. 3 and 7 picks, recalled frequently bumping into Huntington and other Pirates officials at UCLA games, and becoming convinced that they were after Cole.

Savage had the same impression.

“Pittsburgh was very adamant about who they wanted,” Savage said. “There was sincere interest from beginning to end. I don’t think there was any wavering. They seemed to be focused on Cole from Day 1.”

The Mariners chose Hultzen at No. 2; he is now at Double-A after undergoing shoulder surgery and missing all of last season. The D-backs went with Bauer at No. 3 but as something of a compromise choice.

Towers actually wanted Bundy, whom he called, “the best high-school pitcher I ever scouted.” But he feared that if he took Bundy at No. 3 none of the top college pitchers would be available at No. 7 (the D-backs had the extra pick because they had failed to sign their first-rounder the year before).

The choice of Bauer ensured that the D-backs would not end up with two high school pitchers, which in Towers’ estimation would have been too big of a risk. The Orioles grabbed Bundy at No. 4, only to see him undergo Tommy John surgery in June 2013. High school outfielder Bubba Starling went to the Royals at No. 5, Rendon to the Nationals at No. 6. Towers then took Bradley over shortstop Francisco Lindor at No. 7, and the Indians selected Lindor at No. 8.

See how this works? A little luck is required.

The Pirates since have evolved into one of the game’s more data-driven organizations -- a new book, “Big Data Baseball,” by Pittsburgh Tribune-Review beat writer Travis Sawchik, details how the team used analytics to fuel its revival in 2013. But club officials, in determining which player to select first in ’11, placed a heavy emphasis on makeup.

Smith said the team met with Cole, Rendon and other players it was considering.

“You try to formulate in your mind: ‘Who are these young men?’ We think we have an idea of who they are on the field as we watch them compete, pitch and perform. But who are they off the field?” Smith said.

“Are we going to be able to bet on these guys walking up to the podium, representing themselves and the organization and living with being the No. 1 pick? It’s different when you’re the first pick in the country. Every year someone wears that badge of honor. Some wear it well. And for others, it’s more of a struggle.”

Huntington said, “We push our (scouts) to go through the due-diligence process, to find out as much as they can about these young men, more so than, ‘What is the velocity on the fastball? How sharp is the breaking ball? How fast can they run? How far can they hit the ball?’ We ask our guys to go much beyond what they see with their eyes.”

Very few picks are finished products; the idea, Huntington said, is to determine whether a player has the ability and aptitude to grow. Cole, in the Pirates’ view, had the necessary foundation. It came from his parents, Mark and Sharon, who raised the pitcher and his younger sister, Erin, in Orange County, Calif. It also came from Savage, who coached Cole for three years at UCLA.

A number of Pirates scouts weighed in on Cole -- Joe DelliCarri, Rick Allen, Jesse Flores, Jimmy Lester, Jack Bowen. The team, Smith said, takes pride in finding the next Verlander before he becomes Verlander, the next Stephen Strasburg before he becomes Strasburg.

With Cole, the Pirates did just that.

As a rookie in 2013, Cole started Games 2 and 5 of the best-of-five Division Series against the Cardinals. In his first two seasons, he had a combined 3.45 ERA. This season, he has ascended to another level, producing a 2.32 ERA in his first seven starts.

Perhaps now fans in Pittsburgh can forget about Bryan Bullington. The Pirates nailed it with Cole.