College Football

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL): Prediction, odds, picks

Published Oct. 12, 2023 3:41 p.m. ET

The No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (5-0) are 3.5-point favorites at home at Kenan Memorial Stadium against the No. 25 Miami Hurricanes (4-1) on Saturday, October 14. Both teams have productive passing attacks, with the Tar Heels 11th in passing yards per game, and the Hurricanes 23rd.

In their last action, the Tar Heels won against the Syracuse Orange, 40-7. Last time around, the Hurricanes fell to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, with 23-20 being the final score.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between Miami and North Carolina — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Chris "The Bear" Fallica.

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL) Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina
TV: ABC
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

North Carolina vs Miami (FL) Betting Information updated as of October 12, 2023, 10:46 AM ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
North Carolina	-3.5 (-110)	-182	+153	57.5	-110	-109

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL) Prediction

Pick ATS: Miami (FL) (+3.5)
Pick OU: Under (57.5)
Prediction: North Carolina 28, Miami (FL) 26

Pick via FOX Sports Wagering Expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica

Oh, where to begin? I could write at least 10,000 words on last week's debacle against Georgia Tech, but I'll spare everyone the time and myself the angst.

I will say this: The Hurricanes have had a lot of difficulty rebounding from their initial loss in recent years — it hasn't mattered who the coach was. And UNC has owned the Hurricanes in recent seasons.

Is this a new Miami? We shall see, but I'll grab the points here, as there wouldn't be a more "because college football" result this season than the Canes going to UNC, snapping the four-game losing streak to the Tar Heels, rebounding from last week's debacle and handling UNC its first loss of the year.

PICK: Miami (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points, or win outright

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL) Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Tar Heels 30, Hurricanes 27.
The Tar Heels have a 64.5% chance to win this contest per the moneyline's implied probability. The Hurricanes hold a 39.5% implied probability.
North Carolina has put together a 4-1-0 record against the spread this season.
Miami (FL) has covered three times in four matchups with a spread this season.

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL): Head-to-Head

North Carolina has a 2-0 record against Miami (FL) in their last two matchups.
The two teams have gone over the point total on one occasion while sharing a split 1-1 record in their matchups against the spread.
Miami (FL) has been outscored by 6 points in its last two tilts versus North Carolina.

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL): 2023 Stats Comparison

	North Carolina	Miami (FL)
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	36.6 (50)	39 (37)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	19 (21)	14.6 (10)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	5 (16)	8 (65)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	7 (81)	9 (38)

North Carolina 2023 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Drake Maye	QB	1,629 YDS (72.1%) / 8 TD / 4 INT 174 RUSH YDS / 4 RUSH TD / 34.8 RUSH YPG
Omarion Hampton	RB	461 YDS / 7 TD / 92.2 YPG / 5.2 YPC 8 REC / 78 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 15.6 REC YPG
Kobe Paysour	WR	22 REC / 282 YDS / 3 TD / 56.4 YPG
Nate McCollum	WR	28 REC / 355 YDS / 1 TD / 71 YPG
Cedric Gray	LB	41 TKL / 2 TFL / 2.5 SACK
Kaimon Rucker	LB	19 TKL / 7 TFL / 4 SACK
Power Echols	LB	37 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Alijah Huzzie	DB	19 TKL / 1 TFL / 3 INT / 3 PD

Miami (FL) 2023 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Tyler Van Dyke	QB	1,330 YDS (72.6%) / 12 TD / 4 INT 39 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / 7.8 RUSH YPG
Henry Parrish Jr.	RB	379 YDS / 4 TD / 75.8 YPG / 6.4 YPC
Xavier Restrepo	WR	36 REC / 478 YDS / 2 TD / 95.6 YPG
Jacolby George	WR	23 REC / 337 YDS / 4 TD / 67.4 YPG
Francisco Mauigoa	LB	22 TKL / 3 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Jaden Davis	DB	18 TKL / 1 TFL
Kamren Kinchens	S	17 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Te'Cory Couch	CB	11 TKL / 0 TFL / 3 INT / 3 PD