College Football

College football odds Week 10: Bet on Oregon to rout Washington (and more)

Updated Nov. 3, 2021 10:04 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

We have reached the stretch run of the college football season. The College Football Playoff Rankings are out, which means teams will be vying for those top spots over the final month of the season.

Let's jump into my best bets, starting with a surprise at number four, Oregon, visiting Washington. All lines courtesy of FOX Bet.

Oregon (-7 at FOX Bet) at Washington

My boss is a Washington Husky fan, so I might get fired after writing this, but it will be worth it.

I hate Washington with all my heart, just like any rightful Oregon fan should. And it makes me giddy inside knowing Oregon is heading to Seattle to pound the Huskies into submission on Saturday night starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Football can seem like a complicated game, and sometimes it can be. But at its core, football is about two things, blocking and tackling. Can you punish the opponent across from you more often than not? And Oregon is far better at this task than Washington, and it's not remotely close.

Oregon has played 19 offensive line combinations this season and is currently ranked third in rushing success rate, second in stuff rate, and 28th in sack rate. Their current starting running back, Travis Dye, is averaging 3.5 yards before contact and nearly 6 yards per carry. Oregon also uses their quarterback in the run game, and he's at 6.2 yards per carry. This team is moving defenders off the ball better than most teams in the country.

On the other side, Washington's defense ranks 113th in rushing success rate, 123rd in stuff rate, and 92nd in pressure rate. If you'd like to use more traditional stats, they are ranked 97th in the country in opponent yards per rushing attempt. Oregon is going to run the ball the entire game. Nonstop. It's their identity, and it's how they want to play.

While Washington can't stop a nose bleed upfront, they present a different picture in the back end, as their secondary is elite. They rank eighth in passing success rate and third in passing explosiveness. It's very difficult to find explosive plays in the passing game against Washington's secondary.

I have been harsh about Oregon quarterback Anthony Brown's play this season. However, he's improved drastically over the last three games now that he's trusting his eyes and his excellent core of wide receivers. His completion percentage is now up to 65%, nearly six points higher than his career average.

Oregon's passing success rate is 19th, and the overall offense is 11th in points per drive. The Oregon offense will run the ball and run-pass option/ play-action pass this defense the entire game. Think the Ohio State game plan: Keep Brown out of danger and control the game's tempo.

On the flip side, Washington's offense is a mess. Its rushing success rate ranks 59th, but that feels much higher than it probably should be. Washington ranks 121st in explosive rushing plays, and their feature running back is only getting 1.4 yards before contact. Yikes.

Oregon's defense can be scored on, but not via the run game. The Ducks are first in the conference and 23rd in the country in yards per rush allowed. They do an outstanding job of limiting big running plays and generally all over the field. Oregon ranks eighth overall in the country in that stat. The Ducks' defense can be had via the passing game, but they don't allow a ton of points even while giving up a ton of yards.

Oregon has had trouble getting off the field, and they do allow a bunch of late points, which can skew the numbers a bit. The Ducks surrendered 14 fourth-quarter points to UCLA and then 15 to Colorado, but Oregon was playing all backups. Regardless, Washington has not shown the ability to exploit this issue.

Quarterback Dylan Morris is completing only 60% of his passes with adjusted air yards per attempt of just 5.7. Simply put, it's challenging for them to generate offense through the air. Washington will need to force turnovers, get short fields and hope Oregon blows some coverages.

Lastly, Oregon is far better on special teams (sixth) than Washington (85th) and is better coached. Throwing out a weird 2020 season — one where the conference started late and played half a season — Oregon's head coach Mario Cristobal is 19-3 as a head coach between the 2019 and current seasons.

Oregon's big fault is playing up and down to opponents. Best way to put it, big game, big success. Lowly game (Stanford), and the Ducks' effort just isn't the same. This matchup is a huge game for the team, so we will get Oregon's best shot.

Lay the points. Go Ducks!

PICK: Oregon (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

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Ohio State at Nebraska (+15 at FOX Bet)

I'll begrudgingly take the Cornhuskers to cover this game. It's Scott Frost's last stand as head coach of this team, and if they can't get up to play Ohio State, everyone will be fired.

Ohio State's offense is ranked first by SP+ after starting the season slowly. However, in the three games the Buckeyes faced any defense with a pulse, the offense did not look like the top unit in college football. Against Minnesota, Ohio State needed five plays of over 50 yards to score touchdowns. The following week, the team scored 28 against Oregon, and just last weekend, the offense scored 26 against Penn
State.

The Nebraska defense is legit. The team has not allowed over 30 points once this season, even while losing five games. The Huskers' defense ranks 11th in points per drive and is excellent at limiting explosive plays.

Nebraska has played their best defensive ball in the red zone, which will be important as Ohio State's offense is one of the best at converting to points in the scoring zone.

Ohio State's defense has improved, but Nebraska's offense isn't as poor as the narrative. They just happen to be inadequate in spots you'd hope they'd be better at, including pressure rate and red zone offense. They move the ball just fine until the scoring zone, but keep in mind, the Buckeyes' defense ranks 108th in goal-line success rate.

I think Nebraska can do just enough to keep this game close. Take the points.

PICK: Nebraska (+18 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 18 points (or win outright)

Auburn (+4.5 at FOX Bet) at Texas A&M

I'll take Auburn and the points in a game with two teams that closely mirror each other.

There are a few advantages for Auburn worth pointing out that makes me feel comfortable grabbing them to cover here. Both of these defenses are outstanding at preventing points. A&M ranks sixth in opponent points per drive, while Auburn is 24th. However, offensively, Auburn has been able to gain more yards and score more points per drive than A&M.

Auburn is also far better in the red zone, converting 27 red zone opportunities into 18 touchdowns, whereas A&M has only scored a touchdown on half of their 30 red zone appearances.

I'll take the points in this close game.

PICK: Auburn (4.5+ points at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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