CFB Week 11 Betting Report: Can Arizona, Illinois Topple The Undefeateds?

Through 10 weeks of the season, UCLA is not only unbeaten on the field, but a perfect point-spread winner at the betting window.

That’s left bookmakers surprised, to say the least.

"I don’t think UCLA competing for a Big 10 championship was on anybody’s Bingo card," Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.

Yet here the Bruins are, and UCLA is a double-digit favorite in college football Week 11 odds.

Bookmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on a trio of games on FOX: Illinois vs. UCLA, Utah vs. Arizona, and Northwestern vs. suddenly sliding Ohio State, along with other key matchups in college football Week 11 betting.

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UCLA and Utah are the only unbeaten teams in the College Football Playoff rankings, and both are on FOX airwaves this week. Utah is No. 2 in the CFP, while UCLA is fourth.

The Bruins are 9-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), the only team in the nation with a perfect spread-covering record. Up next is Illinois (6-3 SU/4-4-1 ATS), at 9 p.m. ET Friday.

Caesars Sports opened UCLA as an 8.5-point home favorite, and that number didn’t last long.

"We got sharp action on UCLA -8.5 and -9.5 to drive the number up to 10," Feazel said. "So there was a little bit of UCLA love, but it’s pretty much two-way action right now.

"This will get more action because of the late start Friday. I anticipate needing Illinois."

Utah has also been quite profitable for bettors this season, sitting at 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS entering Saturday night’s clash at Arizona (7-2 SU/3-6 ATS).

The Utes opened as 2.5-point road favorites, got to -3 (-103) for a couple of hours on Monday, then went to -2.5 (-117). That’s where the spread remains on Thursday afternoon.

"It’s one-way traffic on Utah, but Arizona is not a pushover," Feazel said, while hoping the No. 23 Wildcats prove that point in a 7:30 p.m. ET kick. "The need is Arizona to do what no team has done so far against Utah, and that’s win the game."

Feazel also noted that there was sharp action on Over 53.5, moving the total to 54.5.

Ohio State lost QB Julian Sayin late in a 19-15 win over Indiana in Week 7. Things haven’t been the same since, with the Buckeyes (6-3 SU/5-4 ATS) now in desperation mode after losing two in a row.

At this point, Ohio State’s College Football Playoff hopes are almost gone. In Caesars’ market of teams to make the CFP, the Buckeyes are +500, trailing 20 other teams, including Big Ten rivals Indiana, UCLA, Iowa, Oregon and USC.

There’s no margin for error when No. 20 Ohio State hosts Northwestern (6-3 SU/5-4 ATS) at noon ET Saturday on FOX. The Buckeyes perhaps got some help from Wednesday night’s news that Northwestern QB Aidan Chiles is out this week with an upper-body injury.

Caesars Sports opened Ohio State -10.5 and saw sharp action at that number, moving to -11.5. The Buckeyes were up to -12.5 before the Chiles news, then shot up to -14.

That move, though, was based on information. It’s not as if bettors are running to the window to play a struggling Ohio State squad.

"There’s not as much early action as we usually see on Ohio State," Feazel said. "But once we get to game time, I would not be surprised to see public action coming in on Ohio State."

Defending national champion Indiana is 8-1 SU, but the polar opposite 1-8 ATS, tied for the worst spread-covering record in the nation. That’s after the Hoosiers were 9-4 ATS in 2024 and 10-6 ATS in 2025.

"There have been a lot of big sweats with Indiana this season," Feazel said. "We haven’t seen the dominant Indiana performance that we’ve seen the past two years."

No. 9 Indiana is coming off a bye, but so too is No. 18 USC (7-2 SU/3-6 ATS) after a 30-18 upset of Ohio State in Week 9. The two meet in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday, in another matchup with big CFP ramifications.

Caesars opened Indiana as a 7.5-point home favorite and initially dipped to -7. But on Thursday afternoon, the Hoosiers are up to -8.5.

"I anticipate more two-way action here. You’ll see West Coast support for USC," Feazel said, alluding to plenty of Trojans money being wagered in Nevada. "We’ll probably need the middle there, Indiana winning by 1-7. And we’re gonna need the Under."

The total moved from 49.5 to 50.5 on Tuesday, and as Saturday draws near, the public masses will no doubt be on the Over.

College football betting expert Paul Stone is looking to a key ACC clash in college football Week 11 odds. No. 13 Wake Forest (8-1 SU/7-2 ATS) is among the best-spread covering teams in the nation, heading into Saturday’s noon ET kickoff vs. SMU (7-2 SU/4-4-1 ATS).

If the Demon Deacons can keep winning, they’re certainly in the mix for the 12-team CFP. The Mustangs also have a route to the CFP, but it ostensibly requires winning out, including in the ACC title game.

SMU opened as a 1-point home underdog vs. Wake, but the line flipped to SMU -1.5 by midweek. Stone is backing SMU, expecting the Mustangs to win by a field goal or more.

He noted that last season, SMU stunned eventual national runner-up Miami 26-20. The Mustangs were 10.5-point home underdogs in that game.

"SMU has been an extremely tough out at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in recent seasons," Stone said. "In fact, Kevin Jennings is 16-1 as a starter in home games since taking over as the Mustangs' primary quarterback, early in the 2024 season.

"That record includes 12 straight home victories over conference opponents."

There are two other notable matchups on the Saturday docket: Duke vs. Miami in the ACC, and Missouri vs. Georgia in the SEC.

Miami (8-1 SU/6-3 ATS) is coming off its first loss of the season, 31-24 at Notre Dame. That knocked the Hurricanes from No. 1 in the CFP rankings to No. 7.

DraftKings Sports opened Miami as a 14.5-point home favorite vs. Duke (7-2 SU and ATS) in a noon ET contest. The ‘Canes have spent most the week at -13.5.

As of Thursday afternoon, action is mixed at DraftKings. Miami is taking 73% of spread bets, while 63% of spread money is on underdog Duke.

With Miami’s loss last week, Georgia (8-1 SU/7-2 ATS) ascended to No. 1 in the CFP rankings. Up next for the Bulldogs is a 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday home date with No. 22 Missouri (6-3 SU/4-5 ATS).

Georgia opened as a 13.5-point favorite at DraftKings and climbed to -15.5 by Monday morning, with no movement since then.

No surprise, Georgia is taking 80% of early spread bets at DraftKings. But spread money is actually running dead even on this matchup so far, indicating perhaps a larger wager or two on underdog Missouri.