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Michigan State Basketball: 5 bold predictions vs. Purdue

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 12:40 p.m. ET

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Jan 21, 2017; Bloomington, IN, USA; Michigan State Spartans coach Tom Izzo coaches on the sidelines against the Indiana Hoosiers at Assembly Hall. Indiana defeats Michigan State 82-75. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan State basketball will host Purdue on Tuesday night and here are our five bold predictions for the matchup.

Heading back home to the Breslin Center never sounded so good for Michigan State. The Spartans have lost 3-of-4 games and the only win came in East Lansing two weeks ago against Minnesota in a dominating performance.

The Spartans will be taking on of the top teams in the Big Ten and a force to be reckoned with. Purdue comes in as one of three ranked teams from he conference with a 16-4 overall record and 5-2 mark in conference play. With a win over the Boilermakers, the Spartans would move into a tie in the standings with Purdue.

Tom Izzo has been frustrated with the lack of preparation his team has had over the past couple of weeks and especially against Indiana. The Spartans were down by 20 in the second half, only to storm back and pull within four. He’s hoping to see the team that stormed back for the majority of tonight’s 40-minute contest.

Let’s take a look at the five bold predictions for the matchup.

5. Eron Harris rises to the occasion

Jan 21, 2017; Bloomington, IN, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Eron Harris (14) drives to the basket against Indiana Hoosiers guard Devonte Green (21) at Assembly Hall. Indiana defeats Michigan State 82-75. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Just like he did against Indiana, Eron Harris is going to have a big game for the Spartans, silencing the doubters. Like a few guys on the team this season, Harris has been struggling with confidence and that’s something that can be fixed with watching shots fall.

Guess what? He watched a majority of his shots fall against the Hoosiers on Saturday and that had to help with what seemed like a never-ending slump. He scored 21 points and made 3-of-4 threes to help the Spartans come back in the second half.

Harris is going to have another big game against the Boilermakers on Tuesday, but not quite as big as his performance against Indiana. He’s going to finish with 14 points and three assists with three more 3-pointers to his name.

Will that be enough to lead the Spartans to a victory?

Dec 30, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Cassius Winston (5) drives to the basket during the first half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

4. Cassius Winston runs the offense effectively

How many times have fans been clamoring for Cassius Winston to get the nod over Tum Tum Nairn? It seems like that’s the theme every week. While Tum Tum is a great leader and likes to push the tempo, he just doesn’t pose a threat on the offensive side of the ball.

Winston looked like the star of the second half for Michigan State in the near-comeback against Indiana. He handled the ball well and finished with five points and three assists. He did have two turnovers, but they were devastating like they had been in the past.

Luckily for the freshman point guard, Purdue is one of the worst teams in the conference at forcing turnovers, which will play into his hands. He’s going to be able to do more at the point guard position against the Boilers than he did against Indiana because of the poor guard play from Purdue.

Not only will Winston take over as the primary point guard once again and run the offensive smoothly and effectively, but he will have a nice game in his own right. He will finish with seven points and eight assists with only two turnovers.

Michigan State needs Winston to be on his game and to facilitate if it’s going to win and he will do just that at the Breslin on Tuesday night.

Jan 21, 2017; West Lafayette, IN, USA; Purdue Boilermakers forward Caleb Swanigan (50) applauds team play during the first half of the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Mackey Arena. Purdue Boilermakers beat Purdue Boilermakers 77-52. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

3. Caleb Swanigan has big game, Nick Ward counters

There’s no doubt in my mind that Caleb Swanigan is going to make his first ever trip to the Breslin Center after spurning the Spartans for Purdue memorable. The crowd is going to be on him all game long and you can bet he will receive boos every time he touches the ball for his de-commitment, but that won’t affect him much.

Swanigan is one of the toughest players to guard in the post because he’s so physical and the Spartans don’t have anyone outside of Nick Ward, and maybe Miles Bridges, who can match his size and strength. Kenny Goins might have to play in the post a bit, but Swanigan will have no issue with him.

Expect Caleb to return to East Lansing tonight with nothing but double-double on the mind and he will finish with 21 points and 12 rebounds, getting the Spartan bigs in foul trouble early on.

While Swanigan will have a monster game in the post, I would expect Ward to counter with an impressive showing of his own. It’s going to be a bloodbath in the post as two of the most physical big men in the conference are set to clash.

Ward will put up 16 points and eight rebounds with a few big blocks of Swanigan that will send the crowd into a frenzy. He’s going to feed off the crowd and make some big defensive stops. Unfortunately, he can’t play all 40 minutes.

Dec 30, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Matt McQuaid (20) brings the ball up court during the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

2. Matt McQuaid makes a few clutch 3-pointers

Yes, you read that right. Matt McQuaid could be a major x-factor against the Boilermakers on Tuesday night and he will have a relatively quiet game until the second half. He played just five minutes against Indiana and is ready to have more of an impact.

Coming into the season, people were hoping McQuaid would live up to the billing of an elite shooter and solid perimeter defender, but he has struggled in his sophomore season. His three-point percentage is down from 40 last year to just 32.

Michigan State has been hoping to get more out of him and when he gets hot, it’s tough to stop him. Just look at his contest against Rutgers, he took just six shots and finished with 12 points and 2-for-3 from long range. McQuaid has the ability to make the big shots, but he struggles with confidence.

Flash back to the Kansas game a year ago in the Champions Classic. Denzel Valentine stole the headlines in the victory by posting a double-double, but freshman guard Matt McQuaid made some huge shots down the stretch from behind the arc.

Now, over a year later, he’s going to have the same type of late-game heroics, making three big 3-pointers in the second half to either tie, take the lead or extend the lead over the Boilermakers.

Jan 7, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Miles Bridges (22) celebrates a blocked shot with guard Joshua Langford (1) during the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Palestra. Penn State won 72-63. Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

1. Michigan State wins a close one

It’s not going to be pretty, nor is it going to be easy, but Michigan State will find a way to win a close one at home. The Spartans are awfully tough to beat in big games at the Breslin Center because the fans always find a way to bring it.

Must Read: MSU Basketball: Game-by-game predictions for January

The Izzone must be rocking and the rest of the fans need to feed off that to create a true home-court advantage that plays into the outcome. Izzo asked the fans to come out in big numbers and support the team and give it their all. Clearly if the head coach is petitioning for more fan support, it must mean a ton to the team.

Michigan State will race out to a big early lead before Purdue cuts it to three by halftime. The second half will be a back-and-forth battle and the Spartans will get the last laugh because of a few McQuaid 3-pointers.

The Spartans have struggled in late-game situations this season because of a young roster, but they will finally take what they have learned and put it to work.

McQuaid may be carried off the court on the team’s shoulders after this one as he finally comes alive. Miles Bridges will also have an impressive game, making up for the sloppy performance against Indiana.

Spartans win, 71-69.

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