Texans vs. Steelers 2025 Wild Card Round Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 12

In the AFC Wild Card round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs, the Houston Texans will play the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Texans are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). The predicted point total for the matchup is 38.5.

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Texans vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Lines

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Texans vs. Steelers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Texans (-3)
  
• Pick OU: Over (38.5)
  
• Prediction: Texans 25 - Steelers 18

How to Watch Houston vs. Pittsburgh

• Game date: Monday, January 12, 2026
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium
• Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• TV: ABC/ESPN
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Texans vs. Steelers Recent Matchups

• Houston and Pittsburgh have been evenly matched over their last two games, sharing the same 1-1 record.
• In their last two head-to-head matchups, Pittsburgh has scored 40 points versus Houston, while allowing only 36 points.

Houston Betting Info

• Houston is 9-8-0 against the spread this season.
• The Texans have been favored by 3 points or more five times this season, and covered the spread in two of those games.
• Houston games this year have hit the over on six of 17 set point totals (35.3%).
• When playing as moneyline favorites, the Texans are 7-2 (winning 77.8% of the time).
• Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Texans' implied win probability is 61.8%.

Texans Stats

Houston's Key Players

Offense

• C.J. Stroud has 3,041 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. He has completed 64.5% of his passes, averaging 217.2 yards per game and 7.2 per attempt.
• To go along with his passing statistics, Stroud has 209 rushing yards (third on the Texans), with one rushing touchdown.
• Nico Collins has caught 71 passes on 120 targets for 1,117 total yards (ninth in the NFL) and six touchdowns. He is averaging 4.7 catches and 74.5 yards per game through 15 games.
• In 16 games, Woody Marks has amassed 703 rushing yards, averaging 43.9 yards per game and scoring two touchdowns.
• Marks has been on the receiving end of 36 targets in the passing game and has 24 catches (1.5 per game) for 208 yards (13.0 per game) and three TDs.
• Dalton Schultz has put up 777 receiving yards and three touchdowns with 82 catches on 106 targets. He is averaging 4.8 receptions and 45.7 yards per game.

Defense

• On the defensive side for the Texans, Will Anderson Jr. has racked up 54 tackles, 20.0 TFL, and 12 sacks in 2025.
• Danielle Hunter has 54 tackles, 15.0 TFL, and 15 sacks this season.
• This season, Kamari Lassiter has put up 7.0 TFL, 91 tackles, and four interceptions.
• Azeez Al-Shaair has two interceptions while adding 103 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and nine passes defended.

Pittsburgh Betting Info

• Pittsburgh has covered the spread nine times in 17 games with a set total.
• So far this season, the Steelers have been installed as underdogs by a 3-point margin or more six times and are 4-2 ATS in those matchups.
• Pittsburgh's games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under 10 times this year.
• The Steelers have won five of the nine games they've played as underdogs this season.
• The implied probability of a win by the Steelers based on the moneyline is 42.4%.

Steelers Stats

Pittsburgh's Key Players

Offense

• Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3,322 yards this year, with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He is completing 65.7% of his attempts while averaging 207.6 yards per game and 6.7 per attempt.
• Rodgers has also rushed for one touchdown and 61 yards (fifth on the Steelers).
• Jaylen Warren averages 59.9 rushing yards per game through 16 games (958 total yards), while scoring six rushing touchdowns.
• Warren also has 40 catches for 333 yards (sixth on the Steelers), with two receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 45 times and averages 20.8 yards per game.
• Kenneth Gainwell has rushed for five touchdowns this year, and has totaled 537 rushing yards (31.6 per game and 4.7 per attempt).
• Gainwell has helped in the passing attack, putting up 486 receiving yards (28.6 per game) on 73 catches (4.3 per game), while being targeted 85 times. He has three receiving touchdowns.
• D.K. Metcalf has been targeted 99 times, resulting in 59 catches for 850 yards .

Defense

• In 2025, Payton Wilson has recorded 109 tackles, 6.0 TFL, two sacks, and one interception over 17 games.
• T.J. Watt has 7.0 sacks (third on the Steelers) to go with 10.0 TFL, 55 tackles, and two interceptions.
• During the 2025 campaign, Patrick Queen has 120 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and one sack through 17 games.
• Alex Highsmith has put up 9.5 sacks (first on the Steelers) to go with 15.0 TFL and 50 tackles through 13 games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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