Power shift: Mahomes saw it early: The moment Bo Nix signaled a new AFC West era for Denver

The Denver Broncos ended the Kansas City Chiefs' nine-year reign atop the AFC West last season, yet Patrick Mahomes sensed his team's stranglehold on the division loosening just a bit way back in mid-November 2024 when he was on his way to a third consecutive Super Bowl.

The Chiefs had just blocked a game-winning field-goal attempt as time expired to preserve a stunning 16-14 win over Denver.

Mahomes approached Broncos coach Sean Payton during the postgame hugs and handshakes and delivered a simple message: “You've got one.”

As in a franchise quarterback.

Bo Nix had just methodically and calmly driven the Broncos into field-goal range only to watch linebacker Leo Chenal break through the line to block Wil Lutz’s chip-shot field-goal try.

Nix and the Broncos recovered to reach the playoffs that season, but they were bounced by Buffalo in the wild-card round while the Chiefs reached the Super Bowl only to fall short of a three-peat with a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Nix blossomed last season when he led the Broncos to a 15-4 record, their first division crown in a decade and a trip to the AFC championship game, which he missed after breaking his right ankle on Denver's game-winning drive in overtime against the Bills in the divisional round.

Nix tied Russell Wilson's record for most wins in his first two NFL seasons with two dozen, joining Mahomes and the Los Angeles Chargers ' Justin Herbert among the league's accomplished quarterbacks.

The Raiders changed coaches and quarterbacks this season with Klint Kubiak taking over for Pete Carroll as head coach and QB Geno Smith giving way to free agent Kirk Cousins and No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza.

While Herbert was banged up last season, it's Nix (ankle) and Mahomes (knee) who are coming off surgeries in 2026 and they'll square off on Sept. 14 in a marquee Monday night matchup at Arrowhead Stadium to top off the NFL's opening weekend.

Denver's daunting six-game stretch

The Broncos face a harrowing six-game stretch to open the season.

After traveling to Kansas City, they'll host the Jacksonville Jaguars, who thumped them last year 34-20 in Denver to snap the Broncos' 11-game winning streak, and the Los Angeles Rams, who added Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald to a dominant defense.

Then, they visit the San Francisco 49ers and the Chargers before returning home to host the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.

“It's football, bro,” said Broncos second-year rising wide receiver Pat Bryant. "I'm a competitor. I love going out there. To be the best, you've got to beat the best. Having a schedule like that, coming out strong, I mean, it'll help build us a team.

“Playing those great teams, it challenges us and at the end of the day we're up to the challenge,” Bryant added. “I love it. I like going out there and competing mano a mano. Six great teams with a lot of great players will allow us to go out there and show off what we've been through this training camp.”

Missing Mahomes

Mahomes, who tore two ligaments in his left knee last December, didn't play in the preseason, the first time the two-time MVP has gone through a full scheduled exhibition season without appearing in a game.

“It’s the amount of time they’ve said from the beginning, that if I did everything the right way, I would be ready to play Week 1,” Mahomes said. “I’m someone, if you put (a target) in front of me, I want to go out and get it and maximize every single opportunity, every rep in the weight room, every hour that I can spend in the building to get my body right.”

If the past is any indication, watch out.

Mahomes had one of the best seasons of his career the previous time he didn't play in any tuneup games.

After the NFL canceled the preseason in 2020 amid the pandemic, Mahomes threw for 4,740 yards with 38 touchdowns with only six interceptions as Kansas City went 14-2 and beat Buffalo for the AFC championship, before losing to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl.

Safeguarding Herbert

If the Chargers are to win their first division crown since 2009 when they were still based in San Diego, or break through with a playoff victory after back-to-back 11-win seasons under Jim Harbaugh, they'll have to do a better job of protecting Herbert.

He was pressured a league-high 183 times last season, and after getting Pro Bowl tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back healthy, the Chargers lost veteran center Tyler Biadasz to a season-ending knee injury this summer after signing him away from Washington.

The Chargers are hoping former Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, their new offensive coordinator, helps keep Herbert upright by bringing his speed-based schemes and high-flying attack to L.A.

Herbert absorbed the most hits and sacks of his six-year career last season, so McDaniel is putting a premium on quick throws to keep him out of harm's way.

The Chargers will really be put to the test in Weeks 5 and 18 when they face Denver's daunting defense that has led the league in sacks each of the past two seasons. The Broncos have a combined sack differential of plus-84 over that span, leading the league by a wide margin.

Waiting game for Raiders

Seems it's just a matter of time before Mendoza assumes the starting quarterback job in Las Vegas after leading Indiana to the national title, winning the Heisman Trophy and getting drafted first overall.

But when that time comes is anyone's guess.

He'll likely be the backup to Cousins, who's entering his 15th NFL season, to start out the season.

Cousins received the lion’s share of first-team snaps in training camp and was the starter in the two Las Vegas preseason games he played. Not only that, but the O-line is far from proven, no wide receiver has emerged as a bona fide No. 1 option and the starting running back might be a rookie — not an ideal situation to start a first-year QB.

No matter who's under center, it should be better than last season when the Raiders' averages of 14.2 points and 245.2 yards per game were both last in the league.

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Predicted order of finish

Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders.

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