Timberwolves vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 3

The Miami Heat (19-15) will try to continue a four-game winning streak when hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves (21-13) on January 3, 2026 at Kaseya Center. Minnesota is a modest 2.5-point favorite against Miami when the Timberwolves hit the court against the Heat on Saturday. A 237.5-point over/under has been set for the game.

Here's everything you need to know to know about the Timberwolves-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Timberwolves vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSN, NBA TV, and WPLG
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Timberwolves vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (+ 2.5)
O/U Pick: Under (237.5)
Score Prediction: Heat 120 - Timberwolves 116

Timberwolves vs. Heat Betting Insights

• The Timberwolves and their opponent have combined to score over 237.5 points, the current matchup's point total, in eight of 34 games this season.
• The Heat have played in 18 games this year (52.9% of chances) in which the teams combined to score more than 237.5 points.
• The Timberwolves and Heat average 2.2 more points between them than the total of 237.5 for this game.
• Opponents of the two teams average a combined 5.5 fewer points per game (232) than this game's total of 237.5 points.
• Minnesota has come away with 19 wins in the 27 contests it has been listed as the favorite this season.
• Miami has been chosen as underdogs in 19 games this year and has walked away with the win 10 times (52.6%) in those games.
• Minnesota and Miami have each won one of their last two head-to-head matchups.
• The Heat have an advantage against the spread (2-0) when squaring off against the Timberwolves.
• The Heat have covered for four consecutive games against the spread, and were the favorite in one of those contests.

Timberwolves Recent Trends

• The Timberwolves have a 5-5 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall over their past 10 contests.
• Minnesota and its opponents have combined to score an average of 232.5 points in its last 10 games, 5.0 less than the 237.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Timberwolves are 13-21-0 against the spread this year.
• Minnesota has an against the spread record of 10-16 in its 26 games as a favorite of 2.5 points or more so far this season.
• The Timberwolves have hit the over in 44.1% of their opportunities this year (15 times over 34 games with a set point total).
• The Timberwolves put up 118.8 points per game, only 1.4 more points than the 117.4 the Heat allow.
• Minnesota is 9-7 against the spread and 15-1 overall when scoring more than 117.4 points.
• The Timberwolves make 47.6% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (45.6%).
• The Timberwolves have done a better job covering the spread when playing at home (7-11-0) than they have in road affairs (6-10-0).
• Minnesota has gone over the total in six of 18 home games (33.3%). It has done better in road games, going over the total in nine of 16 matchups (56.2%).
• The Timberwolves have won a higher percentage of their games as a moneyline favorite at home, going 11-4 (.733). In away games as a moneyline favorite, they sport a record of 8-4 (.667).

Timberwolves Recent Stats

Timberwolves Leaders

• Julius Randle puts up 22.3 points, 5.8 assists and 7.0 rebounds per game.
• Anthony Edwards averages 29.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest, shooting 49.9% from the floor and 39.6% from downtown with 3.3 made 3-pointers per contest (eighth in league).
• Rudy Gobert posts 11.0 points, 1.9 assists and 11.0 boards per game.
• Naz Reid averages 14.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks.
• Donte DiVincenzo posts 13.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game, shooting 41.0% from the floor and 37.9% from beyond the arc with 3.0 made treys per game.

Timberwolves Player Props

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat are 6-4 against the spread and 5-5 overall over their past 10 contests.
• Miami's average total over the last 10 games is 1.9 points fewer than the 237.5 over/under given for this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Heat are 20-13-1 this year.
• Miami has an ATS record of 10-4-1 in its 15 games as an underdog of 2.5 points or more this year.
• Heat games this season have eclipsed the over/under 17 times in 34 opportunities (50%).
• The Heat put up 6.3 more points per game (120.9) than the Timberwolves allow (114.6).
• Miami has put together a 17-5 ATS record and a 15-7 overall record in games it scores more than 114.6 points.
• The Heat have shot at a 47.3% clip from the field this season, 1.5 percentage points greater than the 45.8% shooting opponents of the Timberwolves have averaged.
• Against the spread, the Heat have an identical winning percentage (.588) at home (10-7-0 record) and away (10-6-1).
• In 2025-26 a lower percentage of Miami's games have finished above the over/under at home (47.1%, eight of 17) than away (52.9%, nine of 17).
• In 2025-26 as moneyline favorites, the Heat have a better winning percentage at home (.615, 8-5 record) than on the road (.500, 1-1).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Kel'el Ware is putting up 12.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 0.5 assists per contest. He's also draining 55.6% of his shots from the field and 45.3% from beyond the arc (seventh in league), with 1.3 triples per game.
• The Heat are receiving 24.2 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game from Norman Powell this season.
• The Heat are getting 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game from Jaime Jaquez Jr. this year.
• The Heat are getting 17.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game from Bam Adebayo this year.
• Andrew Wiggins gets the Heat 16.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game while delivering 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocked shots.

Heat Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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