Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 27

The Oklahoma City Thunder (45-15) are home in Northwest Division action versus the Denver Nuggets (37-22) on February 27, 2026. It's the second matchup between these teams this season. The Thunder match up against the Nuggets in a game that Oklahoma City is currently a solid favorite by 8.5 points. The point total for the game is 230.5.

Check out everything you need to know to know about the Thunder-Nuggets game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Friday, February 27, 2026 at 9:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• TV: ESPN, ALT, and FDSOK
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction

ATS Pick: Thunder (- 8.5)
O/U Pick: Over (230.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 120 - Nuggets 111

Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Insights

• The Thunder and their opponent have combined to score over 230.5 points, the current matchup's total, in 28 of 60 games this season.
• A total of 38 Nuggets games this season (out of 59) have had more than 230.5 total points scored.
• These teams average a combined 239.9 points per game, 9.4 more points than the total of 230.5 set for this game.
• Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 223.7 points per game, 6.8 fewer than the over/under for this matchup.
• Oklahoma City has come away with 43 wins in the 56 contests it has been listed as the favorite this season.
• Denver has been victorious in 10, or 50%, of the 20 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
• Oklahoma City has won its one head-to-head meeting with Denver.
• The Thunder also have a 1-0 advantage against the spread when facing off with the Nuggets.
• In their previous four games the Thunder have beaten the point spread, and they were the favorites in one of those games.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games, with a 7-2-1 record against the spread in that span.
• Oklahoma City has averaged a total of 218.6 combined points in its last 10 games, 11.9 less than this matchup's total of 230.5.
• The Thunder have played 60 games, with 31 wins against the spread.
• Oklahoma City is 22-20 ATS when favored by 8.5 points or more this season.
• Thunder games this year have eclipsed the over/under 57.6% of the time (34 out of 59 games with a set point total).
• The Thunder score 119.4 points per game, just 3.7 more points than the 115.7 the Nuggets give up.
• When Oklahoma City puts up more than 115.7 points, it is 28-11 against the spread and 36-3 overall.
• The Thunder are shooting 48.4% from the field this season, 1.8 percentage points higher than the 46.6% the Nuggets allow to opponents.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than away games. They have covered 15 times in 31 games when playing at home, and they've covered 16 times in 29 games on the road.
• When it comes to over/unders, Oklahoma City hits the over less often at home, as it has gone over the total 15 times in 31 opportunities this season (48.4%). On the road, it has hit the over 19 times in 29 opportunities (65.5%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Thunder have won a lower percentage of their games when playing at home (.767) compared to away games (.769).

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Chet Holmgren puts up 17.2 points, 8.8 boards and 1.7 assists per contest, shooting 55.2% from the field and 35.2% from downtown with 1.2 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Cason Wallace puts up 8.9 points, 2.6 assists and 3.2 boards per contest.
• Isaiah Hartenstein puts up 10.7 points, 9.5 boards and 3.5 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.0 steal and 0.7 blocks.
• Isaiah Joe averages 10.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocks.
• Aaron Wiggins posts 10.6 points, 3.4 boards and 1.9 assists per game. At the other end he averages 1.0 steal and 0.5 blocks.

Nuggets Recent Trends

• The Nuggets have gone 4-6 in their last 10 contests, with a 4-6 record against the spread in that span.
• Denver's average total over the last 10 games is 1.6 points greater than the 230.5 total given for this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Nuggets are 33-26-0 this season.
• So far this season, Denver has been installed as underdogs by an 8.5-point margin or more three times and are 3-0 ATS in those contests.
• Nuggets games this season have hit the over on 37 of 59 set point totals (62.7%).
• The Nuggets' 120.5 points per game are 12.5 more points than the 108.0 the Thunder give up to opponents.
• When it scores more than 108.0 points, Denver is 26-20 against the spread and 31-15 overall.
• The Nuggets have shot at a 49.4% clip from the field this season, 5.7 percentage points above the 43.7% shooting opponents of the Thunder have averaged.
• Against the spread, the Nuggets have had better results on the road (20-12-0) than at home (13-14-0) .
• In terms of the over/under, Denver's games have gone over 15 of 27 times at home (55.6%), and 22 of 32 on the road (68.8%).
• In 2025-26 when moneyline favorites, the Nuggets have a better winning percentage at home (.722, 13-5 record) than away (.667, 14-7).

Nuggets Recent Stats

Nuggets Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Nikola Jokic gives the Nuggets 28.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 10.4 assists. He also averages 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.
• The Nuggets are getting 25.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game from Jamal Murray this season.
• Tim Hardaway Jr. gets the Nuggets 13.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game while posting 0.5 steals and 0.1 blocked shots.
• The Nuggets are receiving 7.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game from Bruce Brown this season.
• Jonas Valanciunas is averaging 9.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.3 assists per contest. He is sinking 57.2% of his shots from the floor.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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