Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 4 prediction, how to watch, TV channel, odds - May 11

The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Oklahoma City is a healthy 6.5-point favorite against Denver when the Thunder square off with the Nuggets on Sunday. The over/under is 228 points for the matchup.

Here's everything you need to know about the Thunder-Nuggets game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
• TV: ABC

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction

ATS Pick: Thunder (- 6.5)
O/U Pick: Over (228)
Score Prediction: Thunder 120 - Nuggets 112

Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Insights

• This year, the Thunder games have gone over 228 points scored, their current matchup's over/under, 44 (out of 82) times.
• The Nuggets games have gone over 228 total points scored in 56 of 82 total matchups this season.
• The Thunder and Nuggets average 13.3 more points between them than the total of 228 for this matchup.
• Opponents of the two teams average a combined 3.5 fewer points per game (224.5) than this game's total of 228 points.
• Oklahoma City has been the favorite in 78 games this season and has come away with the win 65 times (83.3%) in those contests.
• Denver has come away with 10 wins in the 19 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
• Denver holds a 4-3 record in the last seven head-to-head matchups with Oklahoma City.
• The Nuggets also have a 4-3 record against the spread when facing the Thunder.
• The Thunder have covered in four consecutive games against the point spread, and they were favored in all of them.
• The Nuggets have been the favorite in each of their past three contests, and beat the spread in all three.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder are 6-4 against the spread and 8-2 overall over their past 10 contests.
• Oklahoma City's average total over the last 10 games is 1.7 points more than the 228 over/under given for this matchup.
• The Thunder are 53-25-4 against the spread this season.
• Oklahoma City is 36-20-3 ATS when favored by 6.5 points or more this season.
• Thunder games this year have hit the over on 45 of 82 set point totals.
• The Thunder score 120.5 points per game, just 3.6 more points than the 116.9 the Nuggets give up.
• Oklahoma City has a 38-12-1 record against the spread and a 46-5 record overall when scoring more than 116.9 points.
• This season, the Thunder have a 48.2% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.6% higher than the 46.6% of shots the Nuggets' opponents have made.
• At home, the Thunder own a better record against the spread (28-11-3) compared to their ATS record in road games (25-14-1).
• Oklahoma City has eclipsed the over/under more consistently when playing at home, hitting the over in 25 of 42 home matchups (59.5%). On the road, it has hit the over in 20 of 40 games (50%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Thunder have picked up the win in 35 of 41 games at home, good for a .854 winning percentage. They have won 30 of 37 games on the road (.811) as a moneyline favorite.

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 32.7 points, 5 rebounds and 6.4 assists per contest, shooting 51.9% from the floor and 37.5% from downtown with 2.1 made 3-pointers per game.
• Jalen Williams posts 21.6 points, 5.3 boards and 5.1 assists per game, shooting 48.4% from the floor and 36.5% from downtown with 1.8 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Isaiah Hartenstein averages 11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 0.8 steals and 1.1 blocks.
• Aaron Wiggins averages 12 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game, shooting 48.8% from the floor and 38.3% from downtown with 1.7 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Luguentz Dort averages 10.1 points, 1.6 assists and 4.1 boards.

Thunder Player Props

Nuggets Recent Trends

• The Nuggets are 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 overall in their past 10 games.
• Denver's average total over the last 10 games is 9.3 points fewer than the 228 over/under listed for this matchup.
• The Nuggets have 38 wins against the spread in 82 games this season.
• Denver is 4-2 ATS when underdogs by 6.5 points or more this year.
• Nuggets games this season have eclipsed the over/under 59.8% of the time (49 out of 82 games with a set point total).
• The Nuggets score 13.2 more points per game (120.8) than the Thunder allow their opponents to score (107.6).
• Denver has put together a 38-30 ATS record and a 49-19 overall record in games it scores more than 107.6 points.
• The Nuggets have shot at a 50.6% clip from the field this season, seven percentage points above the 43.6% shooting opponents of the Thunder have averaged.
• This year, the Nuggets are 18-23-0 at home against the spread (.439 winning percentage). On the road, they are 20-21-0 ATS (.488).
• In terms of the over/under, Denver's games have finished over more often at home (26 of 41, 63.4%) than away (23 of 41, 56.1%).
• In 2024-25 as moneyline favorites, the Nuggets have a better winning percentage at home (.649, 24-13 record) than on the road (.615, 16-10).

Nuggets Recent Stats

Nuggets Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Nikola Jokic gives the Nuggets 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists. He also averages 1.8 steals (second in league) and 0.6 blocked shots.
• On a per-game basis, Jamal Murray gets the Nuggets 21.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6 assists. He also averages 1.4 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.
• Michael Porter Jr. is putting up 18.2 points, 7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. He is sinking 50.4% of his shots from the field and 39.5% from beyond the arc, with 2.5 treys per game.
• Christian Braun gets the Nuggets 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per contest while posting 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.
• Russell Westbrook gives the Nuggets 13.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists per contest while delivering 1.4 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.

Nuggets Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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