Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Picks - March 1

The Dallas Mavericks (21-38) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (46-15) after losing seven straight home games. Oklahoma City is a heavy 16.5-point favorite against Dallas when the Thunder take the court against the Mavericks on Sunday. The game's over/under is 233.5.

Here is everything you need to know about the Thunder-Mavericks game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
• TV: KFAA and FDSOK
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction

ATS Pick: Mavericks (+ 16.5)
O/U Pick: Under (233.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 121 - Mavericks 109

Thunder vs. Mavericks Betting Insights

• The Thunder have played 22 games with over 233.5 points scored, their current matchup's total, this season.
• The Mavericks have played in 21 games this year (35.6% of opportunities) in which the teams combined to score more than 233.5 points.
• These two teams average 233.9 points per game combined, 0.4 more than the over/under of 233.5.
• Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 226.2 points per game, 7.3 fewer than the point total for this matchup.
• Oklahoma City has won 44, or 77.2%, of the 57 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
• Dallas has been chosen as underdogs in 39 games this year and has walked away with the win 12 times (30.8%) in those games.
• Oklahoma City has a 2-0 record in the last two head-to-head games against Dallas.
• Both the Thunder and the Mavericks are 1-1 against the spread in those contests.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder have a 6-3-1 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall in their last 10 contests.
• Oklahoma City has averaged a total of 219.8 combined points over its last 10 games, 13.7 less than this matchup's total of 233.5.
• The Thunder have 31 wins against the spread in 61 games this year.
• This season, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 3-5 in its eight games as a favorite of 16.5 points or more.
• Thunder games this year have hit the over 35 times in 59 opportunities (59.3%).
• The 119.5 points per game the Thunder put up are only 1.5 more points than the Mavericks give up (118.0).
• Oklahoma City has a 25-11 record against the spread and a 34-2 record overall when putting up more than 118.0 points.
• The Thunder are shooting 48.4% from the field this season, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 46.9% the Mavericks allow to opponents.
• When playing at home, the Thunder have a worse record against the spread (15-17-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (16-12-1).
• When playing at home, Oklahoma City eclipses the over/under 50% of the time (16 of 32 games). It hits the over more consistently on the road, eclipsing the total in 65.5% of games (19 of 29).
• The Thunder have performed better as a moneyline favorite in home games, posting a home record of 24-7, compared to going 20-6 in road games.

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts up 31.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.3 steals and 0.8 blocks.
• Chet Holmgren averages 17.2 points, 9.0 boards and 1.8 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.5 steals and 2.0 blocks (second in NBA).
• Cason Wallace posts 8.9 points, 3.2 boards and 2.6 assists per game, shooting 43.1% from the field and 35.5% from beyond the arc with 1.4 made 3-pointers per game.
• Isaiah Hartenstein puts up 10.6 points, 9.5 boards and 3.5 assists per game, shooting 64.6% from the field.
• Isaiah Joe averages 10.8 points, 1.5 assists and 2.6 boards.

Thunder Player Props

Mavericks Recent Trends

• The Mavericks have a 3-7 record against the spread while going 2-8 overall in their last 10 games.
• Dallas and its opponents have combined to score an average of 232.5 combined points in its last 10 games, 1.0 less than the 233.5 over/under in this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Mavericks are 25-33-1 this season.
• Mavericks games this year have gone over the total in 29 of 59 opportunities (49.2%).
• The Mavericks score 6.2 more points per game (114.4) than the Thunder give up to opponents (108.2).
• Dallas is 21-18-1 against the spread and 19-21 overall when it scores more than 108.2 points.
• The Mavericks have shot at a 47.3% clip from the field this season, 3.6 percentage points above the 43.7% shooting opponents of the Thunder have averaged.
• Against the spread, the Mavericks have performed better at home (15-16-1) than away (10-17-0).
• Dallas' games have finished above the over/under more often at home (16 times out of 32) than on the road (13 of 27) this season.
• This season the Mavericks are 6-7 at home when moneyline favorites (.462 winning percentage). Away they are 3-4 (.429).

Mavericks Recent Stats

Mavericks Leaders

• Naji Marshall is putting up 15.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists per contest. He's also draining 53.1% of his shots from the field.
• P.J. Washington is averaging 14.3 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. He's making 44.8% of his shots from the field and 30.6% from 3-point range, with 1.2 treys per contest.
• Brandon Williams gets the Mavericks 13.0 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game while posting 1.0 steal and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Max Christie is putting up 13.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contest. He is sinking 46.4% of his shots from the floor and 41.9% from 3-point range, with 2.4 triples per game.
• Klay Thompson gets the Mavericks 11.5 points, 2.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game while averaging 0.5 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.

Mavericks Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.