Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Picks - March 1

The Dallas Mavericks (21-38) welcome in the Oklahoma City Thunder (46-15) after losing seven straight home games. The Thunder take on the Mavericks in a game that Oklahoma City is currently an enormous favorite by 15.5 points. The game has a point total of 231.5.

Take a look at everything you need to know about the Thunder-Mavericks game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
• TV: KFAA and FDSOK
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction

ATS Pick: Mavericks (+ 15.5)
O/U Pick: Under (231.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 121 - Mavericks 109

Thunder vs. Mavericks Betting Insights

• This season, the Thunder games have gone over 231.5 points scored, their current matchup's point total, 28 (out of 61) times.
• This year, 26 of the Mavericks' 59 games have had a combined total of more than 231.5 points scored.
• Between them, these two teams average 2.4 more points per game (233.9) than this matchup's total (231.5).
• Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 226.2 points per game, 5.3 fewer than the over/under for this game.
• Oklahoma City has come away with 44 wins in the 57 contests it has been listed as the favorite this season.
• Dallas has been an underdog in 39 games this season and has come away with the win 12 times (30.8%) in those contests.
• After the last two head-to-head matchups, Oklahoma City has a 2-0 record against Dallas.
• The squads are each 1-1 against the spread in those contests.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder are 6-3-1 against the spread and 6-4 overall in their past 10 games.
• Oklahoma City and its opponents have combined to score an average of 219.8 points over its last 10 games, 11.7 less than the 231.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Thunder are 31-29-1 against the spread this year.
• Oklahoma City has been favored by 15.5 points or more 17 times this season and are 10-7 ATS in those contests.
• Thunder games this year have gone over the total in 35 out of 59 opportunities (59.3%).
• The Thunder record just 1.5 more points per game (119.5) than the Mavericks allow (118).
• Oklahoma City is 25-11 against the spread and 34-2 overall when scoring more than 118 points.
• The Thunder make 48.4% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the Mavericks have allowed to their opponents (46.9%).
• The Thunder sport a worse record against the spread in home games (15-17-0) than they do in road games (16-12-1).
• Oklahoma City has exceeded the over/under in a lower percentage of home games (50%) than games on the road (65.5%).
• The Thunder have won a higher percentage of their matchups as a moneyline favorite at home, going 24-7 (.774). When playing on the road as a moneyline favorite, they sport a record of 20-6 (.769).

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts up 31.9 points, 6.5 assists and 4.4 rebounds per contest.
• Chet Holmgren puts up 17.2 points, 9 boards and 1.8 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 0.5 steals and 2 blocks (second in league).
• Cason Wallace averages 8.9 points, 2.6 assists and 3.2 rebounds per contest.
• Ajay Mitchell posts 14.1 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.3 blocks.
• Isaiah Hartenstein averages 10.6 points, 3.5 assists and 9.5 boards.

Mavericks Recent Trends

• The Mavericks are 3-7 against the spread and 2-8 overall over their past 10 games.
• Dallas has averaged a total of 232.5 combined points in its last 10 games, 1.0 greater than this game's over/under of 231.5.
• The Mavericks are 25-33-1 against the spread this year.
• This season, Dallas is winless ATS when entering a game as an underdog of 15.5 points or more.
• Mavericks games this season have gone over the point total 49.2% of the time (29 out of 59 games with a set point total).
• The Mavericks score an average of 114.4 points per game, 6.2 more points than the 108.2 the Thunder allow to opponents.
• When it scores more than 108.2 points, Dallas is 21-18-1 against the spread and 19-21 overall.
• The Mavericks' 47.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is 3.6 percentage points higher than the Thunder have given up to their opponents (43.7%).
• This season, the Mavericks are 15-16-1 at home against the spread (.469 winning percentage). Away, they are 10-17-0 ATS (.370).
• Dallas' games have gone above the over/under more often at home (16 times out of 32) than on the road (13 of 27) this year.
• As moneyline favorites, the Mavericks have won a higher percentage of games at home (6-7) than on the road (3-4).

Mavericks Recent Stats

Mavericks Leaders

• Naji Marshall is putting up 15.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. He's also sinking 53.1% of his shots from the field.
• P.J. Washington is putting up 14.3 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. He's draining 44.8% of his shots from the floor and 30.6% from 3-point range, with 1.2 treys per game.
• Brandon Williams gives the Mavericks 13 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game while posting 1 steal and 0.2 blocked shots.
• The Mavericks are receiving 13.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game from Max Christie this year.
• Marvin Bagley III is putting up 10.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest. He is draining 62.3% of his shots from the field.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Dallas Mavericks

Oklahoma City Thunder