Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 21

The Oklahoma City Thunder (36-8) play the Milwaukee Bucks (18-24) on January 21, 2026. The matchup airs on ESPN, FDSWI, and FDSOK. The Thunder are currently strong 9.5-point favorites against the Bucks. The game's over/under is 226.5.

Here's everything you need to know about the Thunder-Bucks game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Bucks Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 9:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
• TV: ESPN, FDSWI, and FDSOK
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction

ATS Pick: Thunder (- 9.5)
O/U Pick: Over (226.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 120 - Bucks 108

Thunder vs. Bucks Betting Insights

• The Thunder and their opponent have combined to score over 226.5 points, the current matchup's over/under, in 24 of 44 games this season.
• A total of 23 Bucks games this season (out of 42) have gone over 226.5 total points scored.
• These two teams average a combined 233.8 points per game, 7.3 more points than the total of 226.5 set for this game.
• Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 223.6 points per game, 2.9 fewer than the over/under in this matchup.
• Oklahoma City has been the favorite in 44 games this season and has come away with the win 36 times (81.8%) in those contests.
• Milwaukee has come away with eight wins in the 23 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
• Oklahoma City has won both of its last two head-to-head matchups against Milwaukee.
• The Thunder also have a 2-0 record against the spread when facing the Bucks.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder are 4-6 against the spread and 7-3 overall over their past 10 games.
• Oklahoma City's average total over the last 10 games is 4.7 points more than the 226.5 total listed for this matchup.
• The Thunder have 22 wins against the spread in 44 games this season.
• Oklahoma City is 15-15 ATS when favored by 9.5 points or more this season.
• The Thunder have gone over the point total in 54.8% of their opportunities this year (23 times in 42 games with a set point total).
• The Thunder record 5.8 more points per game (121.4) than the Bucks allow (115.6).
• When Oklahoma City totals more than 115.6 points, it is 20-11 against the spread and 29-2 overall.
• The Thunder are shooting 49.1% from the field this season, 2.4 percentage points higher than the 46.7% the Bucks allow to opponents.
• The Thunder own a better record against the spread when playing at home (12-11-0) than they do in away games (10-11-0).
• Oklahoma City has exceeded the over/under less often at home, hitting the over in 12 of 23 home matchups (52.2%). In away games, it has hit the over in 11 of 21 games (52.4%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Thunder have won 20 of 23 games at home, good for a .870 winning percentage. They have won 16 of 21 games away from home (.762) as a moneyline favorite.

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts up 31.8 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.2 assists per contest, shooting 54.8% from the field and 39.3% from downtown with 1.9 made treys per contest.
• Chet Holmgren averages 18.0 points, 1.6 assists and 8.5 boards per game.
• Ajay Mitchell puts up 14.0 points, 3.7 assists and 3.5 boards per contest.
• Cason Wallace averages 7.3 points, 2.1 assists and 3.1 boards.
• Aaron Wiggins posts 10.4 points, 3.4 boards and 1.7 assists per contest. Defensively he averages 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks.

Bucks Recent Trends

• The Bucks have gone 5-5 over their past 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the spread during that span.
• Milwaukee has averaged a total of 228.4 combined points in its last 10 games, 1.9 greater than this matchup's over/under of 226.5.
• The Bucks are 19-23-0 against the spread this year.
• Milwaukee has an against the spread record of 3-0 in its three games when underdogs by 9.5 points or more this season.
• Bucks games this season have hit the over 16 times in 42 opportunities (38.1%).
• The Bucks put up an average of 112.4 points per game, just 4.4 more points than the 108.0 the Thunder allow.
• Milwaukee has put together a 16-11 ATS record and a 17-10 overall record in games it scores more than 108.0 points.
• The Bucks' 48.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is 5.3 percentage points higher than the Thunder have given up to their opponents (43.0%).
• The Bucks have been better against the spread away (11-12-0) than at home (8-11-0) this season.
• In 2025-26, a higher percentage of Milwaukee's games have finished above the over/under at home (47.4%, nine of 19) compared to on the road (30.4%, seven of 23).
• The Bucks, as moneyline favorites, have won a lower percentage of games at home (5-5) than on the road (5-4) this year.

Bucks Recent Stats

Bucks Leaders

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is putting up 28.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists per contest. He's also draining 64.5% of his shots from the floor (fifth in league).
• On a per-game basis, Ryan Rollins gets the Bucks 16.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists. He also averages 1.5 steals (eighth in league) and 0.4 blocked shots.
• Myles Turner is averaging 12.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. He is making 42.1% of his shots from the field and 39.0% from beyond the arc, with 2.2 treys per contest.
• Bobby Portis gets the Bucks 13.1 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists per contest while putting up 0.5 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Kyle Kuzma is putting up 12.6 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. He is making 50.0% of his shots from the floor.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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