Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 21

The Milwaukee Bucks (18-24) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (36-8) on January 21, 2026 at Fiserv Forum. The Thunder are currently double-digit 12-point favorites against the Bucks. The over/under is 223.5 points for the matchup.

Check out everything you need to know about the Thunder-Bucks game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Bucks Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 9:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
• TV: ESPN, FDSWI, and FDSOK
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction

ATS Pick: Bucks (+ 12)
O/U Pick: Over (223.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 120 - Bucks 109

Thunder vs. Bucks Betting Insights

• This year, the Thunder games have gone over 223.5 points scored, their current matchup's over/under, 25 (out of 44) times.
• This season, 24 of the Bucks' 42 games have had a combined total of more than 223.5 points scored.
• The Thunder and Bucks average 10.3 more points between them than the over/under of 223.5 for this game.
• Opponents of the two teams average a combined 0.1 more points per game (223.6) than this matchup's total of 223.5 points.
• Oklahoma City has been victorious in 36, or 81.8%, of the 44 contests it has been chosen as favorites in this season.
• Milwaukee has come away with eight wins in the 23 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
• Oklahoma City has a 2-0 record in the last two head-to-head games against Milwaukee.
• The Thunder also have a 2-0 record against the spread when facing the Bucks.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder are 4-6 against the spread and 7-3 overall in their last 10 contests.
• Oklahoma City's average total over the last 10 games is 7.7 points more than the 223.5 total listed for this matchup.
• The Thunder have played 44 games, with 22 wins against the spread.
• Oklahoma City has been favored by 12 points or more 19 times this season and are 11-8 ATS in those matchups.
• Thunder games this year have gone over the total in 23 out of 42 opportunities (54.8%).
• The Thunder put up 5.8 more points per game (121.4) than the Bucks allow (115.6).
• Oklahoma City has a 20-11 record against the spread and a 29-2 record overall when scoring more than 115.6 points.
• This season, the Thunder have a 49.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.4% higher than the 46.7% of shots the Bucks' opponents have knocked down.
• Against the spread, the Thunder have fared better when playing at home, covering 12 times in 23 home games, and 10 times in 21 road games.
• Oklahoma City has eclipsed the total in a lower percentage of home games (52.2%) than games on the road (52.4%).
• The Thunder have won a higher percentage of their matchups as a moneyline favorite at home, going 20-3 (.870). When playing on the road as a moneyline favorite, they sport a record of 16-5 (.762).

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31.8 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game, shooting 54.8% from the floor and 39.3% from beyond the arc with 1.9 made treys per game.
• Chet Holmgren puts up 18 points, 1.6 assists and 8.5 boards per game.
• Ajay Mitchell posts 14 points, 3.5 boards and 3.7 assists per contest, shooting 48.2% from the floor and 34.1% from beyond the arc with 1.1 made 3-pointers per game.
• Cason Wallace puts up 7.3 points, 3.1 boards and 2.1 assists per contest, shooting 41.4% from the field and 35.7% from beyond the arc with 1.3 made treys per game.
• Luguentz Dort averages 8.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game, shooting 40.1% from the field and 34.4% from downtown with 1.9 made treys per contest.

Thunder Player Props

Bucks Recent Trends

• The Bucks are 4-6 against the spread and 5-5 overall in their last 10 contests.
• Milwaukee's average total over the last 10 games is 4.9 points greater than the 223.5 total listed for this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Bucks are 19-23-0 this season.
• Milwaukee has been underdogs by 12 points or more two times this year and has covered the spread every time.
• Bucks games this season have hit the over on 16 of 42 set point totals (38.1%).
• The Bucks score an average of 112.4 points per game, just 4.4 more points than the 108 the Thunder allow to opponents.
• When it scores more than 108 points, Milwaukee is 16-11 against the spread and 17-10 overall.
• The Bucks' 48.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is 5.3 percentage points higher than the Thunder have given up to their opponents (43%).
• The Bucks' winning percentage against the spread at home is .421 (8-11-0). On the road, it is .478 (11-12-0).
• Milwaukee's games have gone above the over/under more often at home (nine times out of 19) than away (seven of 23) this season.
• As moneyline favorites, the Bucks have won a lower percentage of games at home (5-5) than away (5-4).

Bucks Recent Stats

Bucks Leaders

• Giannis Antetokounmpo delivers 28.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game for the Bucks.
• The Bucks are receiving 16.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game from Ryan Rollins this season.
• Bobby Portis gets the Bucks 13.1 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists per contest while posting 0.5 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Kyle Kuzma gets the Bucks 12.6 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game while delivering 0.7 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.
• AJ Green is putting up 10.4 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2 assists per contest. He is sinking 44.3% of his shots from the field and 43.7% from beyond the arc (10th in league), with 3 triples per game.

Bucks Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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