Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 1 prediction, how to watch, TV channel, odds - May 4

The Denver Nuggets will go up against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The Nuggets square off with the Timberwolves in a game that Denver is currently a modest favorite by 4 points. The point total for the game is 208.5.

Here is everything you need to know about the Nuggets-Timberwolves game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Saturday, May 4, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET
• Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
• TV: TNT and truTV

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction

ATS Pick: Timberwolves (+ 4)
O/U Pick: Over (208.5)
Score Prediction: Nuggets 112 - Timberwolves 110

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Betting Insights

• The Nuggets and their opponent have combined to score over 208.5 points, the current matchup's total, in 68 of 82 games this season.
• The Timberwolves games have gone over 208.5 total points scored in 64 of 82 total matchups this year.
• The Nuggets and Timberwolves average 19.4 more points between them than the over/under of 208.5 for this matchup.
• The Nuggets and the Timberwolves have seen their opponents average a combined 7.6 more points per game than the point total of 208.5 set in this game.
• Denver has won 53, or 73.6%, of the 72 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
• Minnesota has been chosen as underdogs in 20 games this year and has walked away with the win 10 times (50%) in those games.
• After the last four head-to-head meetings, Denver and Minnesota have a tied 2-2 record.
• The Timberwolves have an advantage against the spread (3-1) when taking the court against the Nuggets.
• The Timberwolves didn't cover the point spread in their previous four games, and were favored in three of those games.

Nuggets Recent Trends

• The Nuggets have gone 8-2 in their past 10 contests, with a 6-4 record against the spread during that span.
• Denver's average total over the last 10 games is 12.0 points more than the 208.5 over/under given for this matchup.
• The Nuggets have played 82 games, with 38 wins against the spread.
• Denver has an ATS record of 26-29-1 in its 56 games as a favorite of 4 points or more so far this season.
• Nuggets games this year have gone over the point total 34 times in 82 opportunities (41.5%).
• The 114.9 points per game the Nuggets put up are 8.4 more points than the Timberwolves allow (106.5).
• Denver has a 35-26-1 record against the spread and a 53-10 record overall when putting up more than 106.5 points.
• This season, the Nuggets have a 49.6% shooting percentage from the field, which is 4.6% higher than the 45% of shots the Timberwolves' opponents have knocked down.
• Against the spread, the Nuggets have performed better when playing at home, covering 21 times in 41 home games, and 17 times in 41 road games.
• When it comes to over/unders, Denver hits the over more consistently when playing at home, as it has exceeded the total 18 times in 41 opportunities this season (43.9%). In away games, it has hit the over 16 times in 41 opportunities (39%).
• The Nuggets have won a higher percentage of their matchups as a moneyline favorite when playing at home, going 32-8 (.800). On the road as a moneyline favorite, they sport a record of 21-11 (.656).

Nuggets Recent Stats

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic averages 26.4 points, 9 assists and 12.4 boards per contest.
• Michael Porter Jr. posts 16.7 points, 7 boards and 1.5 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.5 steals and 0.7 blocks.
• Jamal Murray averages 21.2 points, 4.1 boards and 6.5 assists per contest, shooting 48.1% from the field and 42.5% from downtown (10th in league) with 2.5 made 3-pointers per game.
• Aaron Gordon averages 13.9 points, 3.5 assists and 6.5 boards.
• Reggie Jackson puts up 10.2 points, 1.9 boards and 3.8 assists per game. Defensively he averages 0.5 steals and 0.2 blocks.

Nuggets Player Props

Timberwolves Recent Trends

• The Timberwolves have gone 7-3 over their past 10 games, with a 5-5 record against the spread during that span.
• Minnesota has averaged a total of 197.3 combined points over its last 10 games, 11.2 less than this matchup's total of 208.5.
• The Timberwolves are 40-40-2 against the spread this year.
• Minnesota has been underdogs by 4 points or more 10 times this year and are 4-6 ATS in those contests.
• Timberwolves games this year have gone over the point total 41 times in 82 opportunities (50%).
• The Timberwolves put up an average of 113 points per game, just 3.4 more points than the 109.6 the Nuggets allow.
• Minnesota is 35-18 against the spread and 43-10 overall when it scores more than 109.6 points.
• The Timberwolves are shooting 48.5% from the field, 2.3% higher than the 46.2% the Nuggets' opponents have shot this season.
• In 2023-24 against the spread, the Timberwolves have a lower winning percentage at home (.439, 18-22-1 record) than on the road (.537, 22-18-1).
• In terms of the over/under, Minnesota's games have gone over 18 of 41 times at home (43.9%), and 23 of 41 away (56.1%).
• The Timberwolves' winning percentage at home as moneyline favorites is .730 (27-10), and away it is .792 (19-5).

Timberwolves Recent Stats

Timberwolves Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Anthony Edwards gets the Timberwolves 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists. He also averages 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.
• On a per-game basis, Rudy Gobert gives the Timberwolves 14 points, 12.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists. He also averages 0.7 steals and 2.1 blocked shots (sixth in NBA).
• The Timberwolves are getting 21.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3 assists per game from Karl-Anthony Towns this year.
• The Timberwolves are receiving 13.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game from Naz Reid this season.
• Mike Conley gets the Timberwolves 11.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game while posting 1.2 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.

Timberwolves Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.