Heat vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 17

The Oklahoma City Thunder (35-7) will attempt to continue a five-game winning streak when visiting the Miami Heat (21-20) on January 17, 2026 at Kaseya Center. The Heat face the Thunder in a game that doesn't have a line set.

Check out everything you need to know to know about the Heat-Thunder game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Heat vs. Thunder Game Information and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSOK, KWTV, and WPLG
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Heat vs. Thunder Prediction

ATS Pick: Thunder (+ )
O/U Pick: Under ()
Score Prediction: Thunder 120 - Heat 114

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat are 6-4 against the spread and 5-5 overall in their last 10 games.
• The Heat have played 41 games, with 23 wins against the spread.
• The Heat have gone over the point total in 47.6% of their opportunities this year (20 times over 42 games with a set point total).
• The 119.4 points per game the Heat score are 11.7 more points than the Thunder allow (107.7).
• When Miami puts up more than 107.7 points, it is 21-11 against the spread and 18-14 overall.
• The Heat make 47.0% of their shots from the field this season, which is 3.6 percentage points higher than the Thunder have allowed to their opponents (43.4%).
• The Heat have done a better job covering the spread at home (12-9-0) than they have in road affairs (11-8-1).
• Looking at point totals, Miami hits the over less often when playing at home, as it has exceeded the total 10 times in 21 opportunities this season (47.6%). On the road, it has hit the over 10 times in 20 opportunities (50%).
• At home, the Heat have won more often as a moneyline favorite, producing a record of 10-5 (.667). In road games, they are 1-2 (.333) as a moneyline favorite.

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Norman Powell averages 23.9 points, 2.7 assists and 3.7 boards per game.
• Bam Adebayo puts up 17.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, shooting 45.5% from the floor and 33.8% from downtown with 1.4 made treys per contest.
• Kel'el Ware posts 11.7 points, 9.9 boards and 0.5 assists per game, shooting 54.3% from the field and 41.9% from downtown with 1.2 made treys per game.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. averages 15.9 points, 4.6 assists and 5.1 boards.
• Andrew Wiggins averages 15.8 points, 2.8 assists and 4.9 rebounds.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the spread during that span.
• The Thunder have played 42 games, with 21 wins against the spread.
• Thunder games this season have gone over the total in 21 of 42 opportunities (50%).
• The Thunder's 121.1 points per game are only 3.3 more points than the 117.8 the Heat give up to opponents.
• When it scores more than 117.8 points, Oklahoma City is 18-9 against the spread and 26-1 overall.
• The Thunder's 48.9% shooting percentage from the field this season is 3.0 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (45.9%).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Thunder have a better winning percentage at home (.522, 12-11-0 record) than on the road (.474, 9-10-0).
• Oklahoma City's games have finished above the over/under 52.2% of the time at home (12 of 23), and 47.4% of the time away (nine of 19).
• In 2025-26 as moneyline favorites, the Thunder have a better winning percentage at home (.870, 20-3 record) than on the road (.789, 15-4).

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gives the Thunder 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists. He also averages 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.
• The Thunder are receiving 17.9 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game from Chet Holmgren this season.
• Ajay Mitchell is putting up 14.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest. He is sinking 48.4% of his shots from the field and 35.2% from beyond the arc, with 1.1 triples per game.
• Jalen Williams is averaging 17.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per contest. He is sinking 46.8% of his shots from the field.
• Cason Wallace is averaging 7.3 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. He is making 41.1% of his shots from the floor and 35.5% from beyond the arc, with 1.4 treys per contest.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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