Heat vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 28

The Houston Rockets (37-21) will try to extend a three-game winning run when hitting the road against the Miami Heat (31-29) on February 28, 2026 at Kaseya Center. Saturday's matchup has no line set between the Heat and the Rockets.

Here's everything you need to know about the Heat-Rockets game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Heat vs. Rockets Game Information and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: Amazon Prime Video and SCHN
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Heat vs. Rockets Prediction

ATS Pick: Rockets (+ )
O/U Pick: Under ()
Score Prediction: -Rockets 116 - Heat 115

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have gone 5-5 over their past 10 contests, with a 6-4 record against the spread during that span.
• The Heat have played 60 games, with 34 wins against the spread.
• Heat games this year have hit the over 32 times in 58 opportunities (55.2%).
• The Heat record 119.9 points per game, 10.8 more points than the 109.1 the Rockets allow.
• Miami has a 32-18 record against the spread and a 28-20 record overall when putting up more than 109.1 points.
• The Heat make 46.3% of their shots from the field this season, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the Rockets have allowed to their opponents (45.5%).
• Against the spread, the Heat have played worse at home, covering 15 times in 28 home games, and 19 times in 32 road games.
• In home games, Miami eclipses the total 53.6% of the time (15 of 28 games). It has hit the over in 53.1% of away games (17 of 32 contests).
• The Heat have played worse as a moneyline favorite in home games, putting up a home record of 12-9, compared to going 6-3 away from home.

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Bam Adebayo puts up 18.5 points, 2.9 assists and 9.8 rebounds per game.
• Andrew Wiggins posts 16.1 points, 2.8 assists and 5.1 boards per contest.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. averages 15.0 points, 4.6 assists and 5.3 boards per game.
• Norman Powell averages 22.5 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per contest, shooting 47.3% from the field and 39.0% from beyond the arc with 2.8 made treys per contest.
• Kel'el Ware averages 11.3 points, 0.5 assists and 9.3 rebounds.

Rockets Recent Trends

• The Rockets have a 5-5 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall in their past 10 contests.
• The Rockets have 27 wins against the spread in 58 games this season.
• Rockets games this year have hit the over 43.1% of the time (25 out of 58 games with a set point total).
• The Rockets put up only 2.5 fewer points per game (114.7) than the Heat allow their opponents to score (117.2).
• Houston is 14-9 against the spread and 17-6 overall when it scores more than 117.2 points.
• The Rockets' 47.5% shooting percentage from the field this season is 1.7 percentage points higher than the Heat have given up to their opponents (45.8%).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Rockets have a lower winning percentage at home (.370, 10-17-0 record) than away (.548, 17-14-0).
• Houston's games have finished above the over/under less often at home (nine times out of 27) than away (16 of 31) this season.
• As moneyline favorites, the Rockets have won a higher percentage of games at home (20-6) than away (14-12).

Rockets Recent Stats

Rockets Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Alperen Sengun gives the Rockets 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists. He also averages 1.3 steals and 1.1 blocked shots.
• Kevin Durant is putting up 26.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists per contest. He's making 50.8% of his shots from the floor and 40.2% from beyond the arc, with 2.4 treys per game.
• Amen Thompson gets the Rockets 17.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game while putting up 1.5 steals (eighth in league) and 0.6 blocked shots.
• The Rockets are receiving 15.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game from Jabari Smith Jr. this year.
• Reed Sheppard gives the Rockets 13.1 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists per contest while putting up 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocked shots.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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