Yankees vs. Red Sox AL Wild Card Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 30

The New York Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox to start the AL Wild Card Series on Tuesday at 6:08 p.m. ET, live on ESPN from Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox are listed as +117 moneyline underdogs for this matchup against the favored Yankees (-139). New York is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +161 odds). The over/under is 6.5 runs for this contest (with -120 odds to go over and -101 odds on the under).

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Yankees-Red Sox game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Yankees vs. Red Sox Game Information & Odds

• When: Tuesday, September 30, 2025 at 6:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, New York
• How to watch on TV: ESPN

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction

• Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Red Sox 4
• Total Prediction: Over 6.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Yankees 55%, Red Sox 45%

Yankees vs. Red Sox Betting Insights

• The Yankees have entered the game as favorites 139 times this season and won 84, or 60.4%, of those games.
• This season New York has won 70 of its 108 games, or 64.8%, when favored by at least -139 on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 58.2% chance of a victory for the Yankees.
• The Red Sox have come away with 29 wins in the 58 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Boston has a mark of 11-15 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +117 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Red Sox have a 46.1% chance of walking away with the win.

Yankees Recent Betting Performance

• The Yankees were the moneyline favorite for each of their last 10 games, and they went 9-1 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Yankees and their opponents combined to go over the run total two times.
• The Yankees' record against the spread is 7-3-0 over their past 10 games.

Yankees Recent Stats

Yankees Player Insights

• Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 53 home runs and 114 runs batted in, while racking up a team-best batting average of .331.
• In all of the majors, Judge is fourth in home runs and fifth in RBI.
• Judge carries a five-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .500 with a double, four home runs, four walks and nine RBIs.
• Cody Bellinger is hitting .272 with 25 doubles, five triples, 29 home runs and 57 walks.
• Bellinger is 34th in home runs and 17th in RBI in the majors.
• Bellinger carries a five-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. In his last five games he is batting .375 with five walks and an RBI.
• Trent Grisham is batting .235 with nine doubles, a triple, 34 home runs and 82 walks.
• Ben Rice has 28 doubles, four triples, 26 home runs and 50 walks while batting .255.

Yankees Team Props

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• In four games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Red Sox have a record of 3-1.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Red Sox and their opponents have failed to hit the over six times.
• The Red Sox have won seven of their last 10 games against the spread.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is hitting .256 with 41 doubles, 13 triples, 16 home runs and 60 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .332.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Duran's home run total ranks 127th and his RBI tally is 43rd.
• Duran brings a hitting streak of three games into this game. In his last five games he is batting .143 with two doubles, a walk and two RBIs.
• Trevor Story proven to be a run producer as he paces his team with 25 home runs and 96 runs batted in, with a team-best .263 batting average.
• Story ranks 50th in home runs and 19th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Alex Bregman has 28 doubles, 18 home runs and 51 walks while batting .273.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .249 with 34 doubles, four triples, 16 home runs and 28 walks.

Red Sox Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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