Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 21

Connelly Early and Joe Boyle will each get the start when the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays play on Sunday at George M. Steinbrenner Field, at 7:35 p.m. ET. The favored Red Sox have -127 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Rays, who are listed at +107. Boston is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +129 odds). A 7.5-run over/under is set for the matchup.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Rays game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Red Sox vs. Rays Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best highlights between the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Red Sox vs. Rays Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:35 p.m. ET
• Where: George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida
• How to watch on TV: FDSSUN and NESN

Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction

• Score Prediction: Rays 6, Red Sox 5
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 51%, Rays 49%

Red Sox vs. Rays Betting Insights

• The Red Sox have entered the game as favorites 96 times this season and won 56, or 58.3%, of those games.
• Boston has entered 62 games this season favored by -127 or more and is 36-26 in those contests.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 55.9% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
• The Rays have been victorious in 31, or 40.8%, of the 76 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• Tampa Bay has a win-loss record of 20-26 when favored by +107 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Rays have a 48.3% chance of walking away with the win.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox went 3-3 across the six games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to hit the over on the run total three times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Red Sox have put together a 4-6-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran leads the Red Sox in OBP, slugging, and hits, reaching base at a rate of .336 while slugging .450 and putting together 155 base knocks.
• Of all batters in the majors, Duran ranks 122nd in homers and 36th in RBI.
• Duran carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .333 with a home run, three walks and two RBIs.
• Trevor Story's 25 home runs, 95 RBI and .265 batting average all lead his team.
• Story ranks 45th in homers and 18th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Alex Bregman is hitting .275 with 27 doubles, 18 home runs and 47 walks.
• Bregman is on a three-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last five outings he is batting .211 with a home run, four walks and two RBIs.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .244 with 30 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs and 26 walks.
• Rafaela is riding a two-game hitting streak into this one. In his last five games he is batting .368 with a double, a walk and an RBI.

Red Sox Team Props

Rays Recent Betting Performance

• In six games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by bookmakers, the Rays had a record of 2-4.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Rays and their opponents are 5-4-1 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Rays have a record of 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Rays Recent Stats

Rays Player Insights

• Junior Caminero paces the Rays with 44 long balls and runs batted in, driving in 108.
• In all of the big leagues, Caminero ranks sixth in home runs and sixth in RBI.
• Yandy Diaz's .302 batting average is a team-high mark.
• Diaz ranks 45th among all batters in the big leagues in homers, and 33rd in RBI.
• Brandon Lowe has 18 doubles, 29 home runs and 36 walks while hitting .258.
• Chandler Simpson has 14 doubles, three triples and 20 walks while batting .297.

Rays Team Props

Red Sox vs. Rays Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best highlights between the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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