Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 5

Trevor Story and the Boston Red Sox head into the first of a three-game series against Gabriel Moreno and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field, Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are favored in this one, at -133, while the underdog Diamondbacks have +112 odds to win. Boston is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). The over/under is 9 runs for the game (with -106 odds on the over and -114 odds on the under).

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Diamondbacks game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Keep up with MLB on FOX Sports.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Cleveland Guardians and the Boston Red Sox.

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, September 5, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where: Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
• How to watch on TV: ARID and NESN

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

• Score Prediction: Diamondbacks 6, Red Sox 5
• Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 50%, Diamondbacks 50%

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Betting Insights

• The Red Sox have been favorites in 87 games this season and won 52 (59.8%) of those contests.
• Boston has entered 46 games this season favored by -133 or more and is 27-19 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 57.1%.
• The Diamondbacks have won in 27, or 47.4%, of the 57 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This season, Arizona has come away with a win 18 times in 31 chances when named as an underdog of at least +112 or worse on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Diamondbacks have a 47.2% chance of pulling out a win.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox went 7-3 over the 10 games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Red Sox combined with their opponents to go over the run total three times.
• The Red Sox have a 4-6-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is the Red Sox best hitter thus far this season, hitting at a team-leading .260 rate along with 14 homers and 77 RBI.
• Duran's home runs rank him 131st in MLB, and he is 34th in RBI.
• Duran brings a hitting streak of two games into this game. In his last five games he is batting .333 with two doubles, a home run, three walks and four RBIs.
• Story has hit 23 home runs with 88 runs batted in. Both lead his team.
• Story is 43rd in homers and 16th in RBI in the bigs.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is batting .248 with 29 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs and 22 walks.
• Alex Bregman is hitting .281 with 25 doubles, 16 home runs and 39 walks.

Red Sox Team Props

Diamondbacks Recent Betting Performance

• The Diamondbacks have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and have gone 4-3 in those contests.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Diamondbacks and their opponents are 4-5-1 in their last 10 games with a total.
• Over their last 10 games, the Diamondbacks are 8-2-0 against the spread.

Diamondbacks Recent Stats

Diamondbacks Player Insights

• Geraldo Perdomo has racked up a team-leading 88 runs batted in.
• In all of the big leagues, Perdomo ranks 101st in homers and 16th in RBI.
• Corbin Carroll has collected a team-high 29 home runs.
• Carroll ranks 14th in home runs and 54th in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Ketel Marte has a team-high batting average of .290.
• Moreno is batting .278 with 10 doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 15 walks.

Diamondbacks Team Props

Diamondback vs. Brewers Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.

FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience

Arizona Diamondbacks

Boston Red Sox