Pirates vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 7

Oneil Cruz and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Spencer Steer and the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday at 6:40 p.m. ET. The favored Pirates have -169 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Reds, who are listed at +141. Pittsburgh (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The total is 6.5 runs for this game (with -120 odds to hit the over and +100 odds on the under).

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Pirates-Reds game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Pirates vs. Reds Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, August 7, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, SportsNet PT, and FDSOH

Pirates vs. Reds Prediction

• Score Prediction: Pirates 4, Reds 3
• Total Prediction: Over 6.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Pirates 51%, Reds 49%

Pirates vs. Reds Betting Insights

• This season, the Pirates have been favored 33 times and won 15, or 45.5%, of those games.
• Pittsburgh has entered three games this season favored by -169 or more and is 1-2 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win from the Pirates, based on the moneyline, is 62.8%.
• The Reds have been underdogs in 61 games this season and have come away with the win 32 times (52.5%) in those contests.
• This year, Cincinnati has won six of 15 games when listed as at least +141 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Reds have an implied victory probability of 41.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• The Pirates have a 2-2 record over the four games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Pirates and their opponents combined to go over the total six times.
• The Pirates' ATS record is 6-4-0 over their past 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Pirates Player Insights

• Cruz paces the Pirates with 18 home runs.
• In all of MLB, Cruz is 48th in home runs and 96th in RBI.
• Andrew McCutchen is hitting .249 with 16 doubles, 11 home runs and 41 walks.
• McCutchen ranks 129th in homers and 161st in RBI on the season.
• McCutchen carries a two-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. In his last five games he is hitting .286 with a double, a home run, three walks and five RBIs.
• Bryan Reynolds has put up a team-high 53 runs batted in.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a club-high .270 batting average.
• Kiner-Falefa brings a two-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is hitting .350 with a double and four RBIs.

Pirates Team Props

Reds Recent Betting Performance

• In six games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Reds have a record of 3-3.
• The Reds and their opponents have combined to hit the over just once in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Reds have a record of 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Reds Recent Stats

Reds Player Insights

• Elly De La Cruz paces the Reds with 19 home runs and 73 runs batted in, while recording a team-high batting average of .279.
• Among all hitters in MLB, De La Cruz is 41st in home runs and 16th in RBI.
• TJ Friedl has 16 doubles, two triples, 10 home runs and 54 walks while batting .275.
• Friedl is currently 148th in homers and 171st in RBI in the major leagues.
• Steer is hitting .236 with 15 doubles, two triples, 13 home runs and 32 walks.
• Matt McLain has 12 doubles, 11 home runs and 41 walks while hitting .223.

Reds Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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