Phillies vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 4

Jackson Holliday and the Baltimore Orioles will take the field on Monday at Citizens Bank Park against Jesus Luzardo, who gets the start for the Philadelphia Phillies. First pitch is at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Phillies have been listed as -205 moneyline favorites in this matchup against the Orioles (+169). Philadelphia is a 1.5-run favorite (at -101 odds). The contest's over/under is set at 9 runs.

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Orioles game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Phillies vs. Orioles Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, August 4, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: NBCS-PH and MASN

Phillies vs. Orioles Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Orioles 4
• Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 56%, Orioles 44%

Phillies vs. Orioles Betting Insights

• The Phillies have been favorites in 89 games this season and won 55 (61.8%) of those contests.
• Philadelphia has entered 20 games this season favored by -205 or more and is 16-4 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win from the Phillies, based on the moneyline, is 67.2%.
• The Orioles have won in 25, or 44.6%, of the 56 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This season, Baltimore has been victorious two times in four chances when named as an underdog of at least +169 or worse on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Orioles have a 37.2% chance of pulling out a win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies were the moneyline favorite for nine of their last 10 games, and they went 4-5 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total six times.
• The Phillies' ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Kyle Schwarber has a team-best 38 home runs and 88 runs batted in.
• Schwarber ranks second in homers and first in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
• Trea Turner's .283 batting average is a team-high mark.
• Turner ranks 124th in homers in baseball, and 103rd in RBI.
• Bryce Harper is hitting .270 with 25 doubles, 16 home runs and 50 walks.
• Harper is on a two-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .353 with two doubles, a home run, three walks and two RBIs.
• Nick Castellanos is hitting .269 with 23 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs and 23 walks.
• Castellanos is riding a four-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .294 with a home run, a walk and three RBIs.

Phillies Team Props

Orioles Recent Betting Performance

• The Orioles have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and have gone 3-2 in those contests.
• The Orioles and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Orioles are 7-3-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Orioles Recent Stats

Orioles Player Insights

• Gunnar Henderson leads the Orioles with 47 runs batted in while putting up a team-high batting average of .285.
• In all of MLB, Henderson ranks 100th in home runs and 93rd in RBI.
• Holliday's 14 home runs lead his team.
• Holliday is 89th overall in homers and 124th in RBI this year.
• Adley Rutschman has 15 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 33 walks while hitting .233.
• Jordan Westburg is batting .272 with nine doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 12 walks.

Orioles Team Props

Tigers vs. Phillies Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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