Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 24

Jesus Luzardo takes the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park against Heriberto Hernandez and the Miami Marlins. First pitch is at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Marlins are +141 moneyline underdogs for this matchup with the Phillies (-168). Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The total is 7.5 runs for the matchup (with -116 odds to go over and -105 odds to go under).

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Marlins vs. Phillies Highlights | MLB on FOX

Enjoy the best moments between the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies.

Phillies vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Wednesday, September 24, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: NBCS-PH and FDSFL

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Marlins 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 57%, Marlins 43%

Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• This season, the Phillies have won 76 out of the 124 games, or 61.3%, in which they've been favored.
• Philadelphia is 38-15 this season when entering a game favored by -168 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 62.7% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
• The Marlins have been underdogs in 127 games this season and have come away with the win 62 times (48.8%) in those contests.
• Miami has a win-loss record of 21-20 when favored by +141 or worse by bookmakers this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 41.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies were favored on the moneyline in five of their last 10 games, and they finished 2-3 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the run total eight times.
• The Phillies are 4-6-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 54 home runs and 130 runs batted in.
• Including all MLB hitters, Schwarber is 108th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage, and fourth in slugging.
• Bryce Harper is batting .263 with 32 doubles, 27 home runs and 68 walks.
• Harper is 36th in home runs and 64th in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Bryson Stott is hitting .255 with 22 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs and 54 walks.
• Nick Castellanos has 27 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 31 walks while hitting .256.
• Castellanos takes a four-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .357 with a home run, a walk and five RBIs.

Phillies Team Props

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• In seven games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Marlins have a record of 6-1.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents are 7-3-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Marlins have a record of 8-2-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Otto Lopez has driven in the most runs for the Marlins with 77 runs batted in.
• Among all hitters in the big leagues, Lopez ranks 137th in home runs and 56th in RBI.
• Lopez carries a five-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .333 with two doubles, a home run and three RBIs.
• Agustin Ramirez is batting .233 with 33 doubles, a triple, 21 home runs and 36 walks.
• Ramirez ranks 67th overall in homers and 93rd in RBI this year.
• Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with a team-high batting average of .281.
• Eric Wagaman is batting .248 with 27 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 32 walks.

Marlins Team Props

Marlins vs. Phillies Highlights | MLB on FOX

Enjoy the best moments between the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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