Padres vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 28

The San Diego Padres versus New York Mets game on Monday at 9:40 p.m. ET will showcase a pair of hot hitters in Manny Machado and Brandon Nimmo. The favored Padres have -131 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Mets, who are listed at +110. San Diego (-1.5) is favored on the run line. An 8-run total has been set in the contest.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Padres-Mets game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, July 28, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, SDPA, and SNY

Padres vs. Mets Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 5, Mets 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Padres 52%, Mets 48%

Padres vs. Mets Betting Insights

• This season, the Padres have won 31 out of the 54 games, or 57.4%, in which they've been favored.
• San Diego has a record of 25-17 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -131 on the moneyline.
• The Padres have a 56.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Mets have been underdogs in 31 games this season and have come away with the win 13 times (41.9%) in those contests.
• This season, New York has come away with a win seven times in 17 chances when named as an underdog of at least +110 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Mets have an implied victory probability of 47.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres were the moneyline favorite for five of their last 10 games, and they went 2-3 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 outings, the Padres and their opponents combined to go over the run total four times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Padres' ATS record is 6-4-0 over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Machado has accumulated a team-best batting average of .300, while leading the Padres in home runs (19) and runs batted in (66).
• In all of the majors, Machado ranks 27th in homers and 17th in RBI.
• Machado carries a five-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .619 with four doubles, a home run and six RBIs.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. is batting .268 with 17 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 57 walks.
• Tatis is 47th in homers and 91st in RBI among all batters in baseball.
• Luis Arraez is batting .291 with 20 doubles, four triples, five home runs and 20 walks.
• Arraez is on a 10-game hitting streak entering this contest. In his last 10 games he is batting .390 with three doubles, two walks and four RBIs.
• Xander Bogaerts is batting .265 with 23 doubles, seven home runs and 43 walks.

Padres Team Props

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have played as underdogs in three of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents have combined to hit the over three times.
• The Mets have four wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto has racked up a team-best 25 home runs.
• Soto ranks ninth in homers and 23rd in RBI among all batters in the majors.
• Francisco Lindor has 19 doubles, 20 home runs and 34 walks while batting .249.
• Lindor is currently 22nd in home runs and 36th in RBI in the big leagues.
• Pete Alonso leads the Mets in runs batted in (81) and has racked up a team-high batting average of .266.
• Nimmo is hitting .261 with 20 doubles, 19 home runs and 32 walks.

Mets Team Props

2025 MLB All-Star Game: Full Home Run Swing-Off | MLB on FOX

Watch the full Home Run Swing-off between the American League and the National League in the 2025 MLB All-Star Game.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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