Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 4

Geraldo Perdomo will lead the Arizona Diamondbacks into a matchup with Luis Arraez and the San Diego Padres on Monday at 9:40 p.m. ET, in the first game of a three-game series at Chase Field. Oddsmakers list the Padres as -130 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Diamondbacks +110 moneyline odds. San Diego is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The over/under is 9 runs for this matchup.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Padres-Diamondbacks game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Diamondbacks Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, August 4, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where: Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, ARID, and SDPA

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

• Score Prediction: Diamondbacks 6, Padres 5
• Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Padres 51%, Diamondbacks 49%

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Betting Insights

• The Padres have entered the game as favorites 59 times this season and won 35, or 59.3%, of those games.
• San Diego has entered 47 games this season favored by -130 or more and is 29-18 in those contests.
• The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 56.5% chance of a victory for the Padres.
• The Diamondbacks have come away with 19 wins in the 43 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Arizona has a mark of 13-9 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +110 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Diamondbacks have a 47.6% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres were favored on the moneyline for six of their last 10 games, and they finished 4-2 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups, the Padres and their opponents combined to go over the total five times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Padres' record against the spread is 6-4-0 over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Manny Machado's 20 homers and 72 RBI both lead the Padres, on top of his team-high .299 average.
• Among all MLB hitters, Machado is ninth in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .264 with 19 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 63 walks.
• Tatis is 56th in homers and 111th in RBI on the season.
• Arraez is batting .298 with 21 doubles, four triples, six home runs and 22 walks.
• Arraez will look to build on his 16-game hitting in this game. During his last 10 games he is hitting .415 with three doubles, a home run, three walks and four RBIs.
• Xander Bogaerts is hitting .270 with 24 doubles, seven home runs and 44 walks.
• Bogaerts is riding a four-game hitting streak into this one. In his last five games he is hitting .263 with a walk and an RBI.

Padres Team Props

Diamondbacks Recent Betting Performance

• The Diamondbacks have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• The Diamondbacks and their opponents have combined to hit the over just once in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Diamondbacks are 2-8-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Diamondbacks Recent Stats

Diamondbacks Player Insights

• Perdomo has put up a team-leading 75 runs batted in.
• Among all batters in the big leagues, Perdomo ranks 124th in homers and 11th in RBI.
• Corbin Carroll has shown off his power as he paces his team with 22 home runs.
• Carroll ranks 20th among all batters in the big leagues in homers, and 68th in RBI.
• Ketel Marte has a team-best batting average of .288.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is hitting .244 with 21 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs and 26 walks.

Diamondbacks Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Arizona Diamondbacks

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