Guardians vs. Tigers AL Wild Card Game 3 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 2

Updated Oct. 2, 2025 3:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Detroit Tigers in the decisive game of the AL Wild Card Series on Thursday at 3:08 p.m. ET, live on ABC from Progressive Field. The teams split the first two games of the series and would advance to the ALDS with a victory in this matchup. Oddsmakers list the Guardians as -132 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Tigers +111 moneyline odds to win. Cleveland is favored on the run line (-1.5 with +164 odds). The total for the matchup is set at 7 runs.

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Guardians-Tigers game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Guardians vs. Tigers Game Information & Odds

When: Thursday, October 2, 2025 at 3:08 p.m. ET
Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
How to watch on TV: ABC

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Guardians	-132	+111	7	-124	+103	-1.5	+164	-200

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction

Score Prediction: Guardians 5, Tigers 4
Total Prediction: Over 7 runs
Win Probabilities: Guardians 53%, Tigers 47%

Guardians vs. Tigers Betting Insights

This season, the Guardians have been favored 73 times and won 46, or 63%, of those games.
Cleveland has a record of 27-11, a 71.1% win rate, when favored by -132 or more by oddsmakers this season.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 56.9% chance of a victory for the Guardians.
The Tigers have won in 24, or 47.1%, of the 51 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
Detroit has a mark of 9-12 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +111 or worse on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Tigers have a 47.4% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

The Guardians were the moneyline favorite in eight of their last 10 games, and they finished 5-3 in those matchups.
In their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Guardians and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total three times.
The Guardians are 5-5-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	4.4
HR	9
ERA	2.90
K/9	11.1

Guardians Player Insights

Jose Ramirez paces the Guardians with 30 home runs and 85 runs batted in, while accumulating a team-high batting average of .283.
Of all hitters in the majors, Ramirez's home run total places him 30th, and his RBI tally ranks him 42nd.
Steven Kwan has 29 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 55 walks while batting .272.
Kwan is 192nd in homers and 142nd in RBI in the majors.
Kyle Manzardo is batting .234 with 19 doubles, two triples, 27 home runs and 48 walks.
Angel Martinez is batting .224 with 23 doubles, two triples, 11 home runs and 23 walks.
Martinez brings a two-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .188 with a walk.

Guardians Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Steven Kwan	0.5 (-255)	1.5 (+140)	-	0.5 (+276)
José Ramírez	0.5 (-197)	1.5 (+131)	-	0.5 (+171)
Kyle Manzardo	0.5 (-171)	-	-	0.5 (+167)
George Valera	0.5 (-134)	-	-	0.5 (+252)
Gabriel Arias	0.5 (-113)	-	-	0.5 (+269)

Tigers Recent Betting Performance

In five games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Tigers have a record of 2-3.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Tigers and their opponents have failed to hit the over eight times.
The Tigers have a record of 1-9-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Tigers Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	3-7
Runs Per Game	2.5
HR	7
ERA	3.81
K/9	9.3

Tigers Player Insights

Gleyber Torres has 22 doubles, 16 home runs and 85 walks while batting .256.
Among all batters in the majors, Torres' home run total ranks 127th and his RBI tally ranks 73rd.
Riley Greene has been a reliable source of runs this year, leading the lineup with 36 home runs and 111 runs batted in.
Greene is 10th in homers and seventh in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
Spencer Torkelson is hitting .240 with 27 doubles, a triple, 31 home runs and 72 walks.
Zach McKinstry paces the Tigers with a .259 batting average.

Tigers Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Wenceel Perez	0.5 (-198)	1.5 (+140)	-	0.5 (+214)
Gleyber Torres	0.5 (-222)	1.5 (+133)	-	0.5 (+251)
Zach McKinstry	0.5 (-111)	-	-	0.5 (+316)
Spencer Torkelson	0.5 (-156)	-	-	0.5 (+195)
Riley Greene	0.5 (-160)	-	-	0.5 (+197)