Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 10

Josh Naylor and Manny Machado will be among the star attractions when the Arizona Diamondbacks play the San Diego Padres on Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET, at PETCO Park. The Diamondbacks are -125 moneyline favorites for this matchup against the Padres (+105). Arizona is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The over/under is 8.5 runs for this game.

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Diamondbacks-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Diamondbacks vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, July 10, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, SDPA, and ARID

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 5, Diamondbacks 4
• Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Diamondbacks 53%, Padres 47%

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Betting Insights

• The Diamondbacks have won 31, or 50.8%, of the 61 games they've played as favorites this season.
• This season Arizona has won 20 of its 40 games, or 50%, when favored by at least -125 on the moneyline.
• The Diamondbacks have a 55.6% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Padres have been chosen as underdogs in 43 games this year and have walked away with the win 20 times (46.5%) in those games.
• San Diego has a win-loss record of 14-20 when favored by +105 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 48.8% chance of pulling out a win.

Diamondbacks Recent Betting Performance

• The Diamondbacks have a 2-3 record over the five games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups, the Diamondbacks and their opponents combined to go over the run total six times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Diamondbacks have put together a 6-4-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Diamondbacks Recent Stats

Diamondbacks Player Insights

• Geraldo Perdomo is hitting .267 with 18 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 54 walks.
• Perdomo's home runs rank him 115th in MLB, and he ranks 11th in RBI.
• Naylor's .296 batting average leads his team.
• Naylor ranks 92nd in home runs and 16th in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Eugenio Suarez has a team-high 29 home runs and 75 runs batted in.
• Suarez has at least one base hit in three games in a row. In his last five games he is hitting .250 with a double, a home run, a walk and three RBIs.
• Corbin Carroll is hitting .250 with 14 doubles, 10 triples, 21 home runs and 31 walks.
• Carroll brings a three-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is batting .182 with a double, a triple, a home run, a walk and two RBIs.

Diamondbacks Team Props

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and have gone 1-3 in those contests.
• The Padres and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Padres are 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with 15 long balls.
• Among all batters in MLB, Tatis ranks 43rd in home runs and 89th in RBI.
• Machado has been a reliable source of runs this year, leading the lineup with 15 home runs and 53 RBI.
• Among all major league hitters, Machado is 43rd in homers and 31st in RBI.
• Luis Arraez has put up a team-best batting average of .289.
• Gavin Sheets is hitting .261 with 14 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 26 walks.

Padres Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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