Cubs vs. Padres NL Wild Card Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 30

The Chicago Cubs will host the San Diego Padres to start the NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday at 3:08 p.m. ET, live on ABC from Wrigley Field. The Padres have been listed as +110 moneyline underdogs for this matchup with the favored Cubs (-130). Chicago is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). The total is 6.5 runs for this contest.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Cubs-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Keep up with MLB on FOX Sports.

Cubs vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

• When: Tuesday, September 30, 2025 at 3:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois
• How to watch on TV: ABC

Cubs vs. Padres Prediction

• Score Prediction: Cubs 5, Padres 4
• Total Prediction: Over 6.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Cubs 54%, Padres 46%

Cubs vs. Padres Betting Insights

• The Cubs have entered the game as favorites 116 times this season and won 74, or 63.8%, of those games.
• This season Chicago has won 59 of its 88 games, or 67%, when favored by at least -130 on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Cubs have a 56.5% chance to win.
• The Padres have been victorious in 35, or 50.7%, of the 69 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• San Diego has a mark of 19-25 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +110 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Padres have an implied victory probability of 47.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Cubs Recent Betting Performance

• The Cubs have a 4-2 record across the six games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Cubs and their opponents combined to hit the over six times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Cubs' ATS record is 6-4-0 over their past 10 games.

Cubs Recent Stats

Cubs Player Insights

• Kyle Tucker has 25 doubles, four triples, 22 home runs and 87 walks while batting .266.
• Including all MLB batters, Tucker ranks 46th in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, and 44th in slugging.
• Nico Hoerner is hitting .297 to lead his team.
• Hoerner is 264th in home runs in the majors, and 123rd in RBI.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong is hitting .247 with 37 doubles, four triples, 31 home runs and 29 walks.
• Crow-Armstrong will look to build on his four-game hitting in this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .294 with two home runs and five RBIs.
• Seiya Suzuki has collected 103 runs batted in to lead his team.
• Suzuki is riding a seven-game hitting streak into this one. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .281 with two doubles, five home runs, four walks and 12 RBIs.

Cubs Team Props

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• In three games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by bookmakers, the Padres had a record of 2-1.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents have failed to hit the over six times.
• The Padres have six wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has 27 doubles, two triples, 25 home runs and 89 walks while batting .268.
• Among all hitters in the big leagues, Tatis is 50th in homers and 84th in RBI.
• Tatis has collected a hit in eight straight games. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .368 with three home runs, four walks and six RBIs.
• Manny Machado has been a reliable source of runs this year, leading the lineup with 27 home runs and 95 RBI.
• Machado ranks 38th among all hitters in MLB in home runs, and 20th in RBI.
• Luis Arraez paces the Padres with a team-best batting average of .292.
• Ryan O'Hearn is hitting .281 with 21 doubles, a triple, 17 home runs and 58 walks.

Padres Team Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.

FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience

Chicago Cubs

San Diego Padres