Nick Wright’s Best, Worst Case Scenarios For USA At The World Cup

With less than a month until the United States takes the pitch for their opening World Cup 2026 match, the pressure is mounting for a program looking to make a statement on home soil. 

During a recent segment of FOX Sports' First Things First, Kevin Wildes put Nick Wright on the clock to break down the best, worst, and most likely scenarios for the United States Men's national team. 

Wright didn't hold back, offering scenarios that range from a disappointing early exit to a historic run that would echo South Korea’s 2002 semifinal run, when the nation also co-hosted the World Cup.

Worst-Case Scenario: Group Stage Struggles

A nightmare scenario for USA, according to Wright, involves a total collapse in the early stages of the tournament. 

"I'm gonna start with the bad, worst case. They don't win the group. Türkiye does, and because of that, they have a tougher round of 32 draw. They lose their first knockout round game, and then you have to just salt the Earth of US Soccer, fire everyone and start over. That's (the) worst case. It's not going to happen," Wright explained. 

The Most Likely Path: Hitting the "Glass Ceiling"

Wright was quick to dismiss his worst case scenario as an unlikely outcome for this group. Instead, Wright points toward a more optimistic outcome for this squad. 

"They win the group, they win one knockout round game, get to the round of 16, and they lose there — which has kind of been the glass ceiling for most US men’s national teams," Wright said.

This "glass ceiling" has long been the measuring stick for American soccer, representing the gap between being a competitive side and a global powerhouse.

Breaking The Ceiling: A Semifinal Appearance?

However, Wright sees a path where the U.S. can compete with some of the world’s best, and avenge the shortcomings of previous generations.

"Best case, you win the group, you get a third place team in the round of 32, you win that game. Round of 16, you're like, ‘wait, I recognize you,’ We’re playing Belgium in the round of 16. We did that once upon a time. And we avenge our 2014 loss to Belgium in the round of 16," Wright said.

Wright's "best-case" scenario offers a vision where the USA could be one game away from a World Cup final.

"Then in the round of eight, in what would be the biggest game in US Soccer history, we would be playing Croatia or England or Portugal or Argentina or Spain, and in an upset for the ages, carried by a home crowd, the US makes the semifinals of a Home World Cup, like South Korea did, by the way, in ‘02" Wright continued. "That really is the ceiling, but that's the best case."

2026 FIFA World Cup: How To Watch

From June 11 through July 19, 2026, FOX Sports presents its largest World Cup production and broadcast slate to date featuring all 104 matches live across FOX (69) and FS1 (35) with every match live-streaming on FOX One and the FOX Sports App.

All 104 tournament matches will air live across FOX (70) and FS1 (34) with every match streaming live and on-demand within both the FOX One and the FOX Sports apps. A record 40 matches, more than one-third of the tournament, will air in prime time across FOX (21) and FS1 (19).