Major League Baseball

Yes, the Royals are favored. Here's why.

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 12:46 a.m. ET

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Yes, it’s largely true that analyzing a best-of-seven series between two evenly matched teams is largely an exercise in futility. This has been proved many times over, including in just the last couple of weeks. Still, I’ve got a few minutes and it seems you do, too. And it’s even possible that while we might not divine the winner of the 2014 World Series, we might learn at least a little of interest along the way.

Over at SI.com, they looked at the Giants and the Royals, position by position. The Giants came out on top — and thus presumably should be considered the slight favorites — with six wins, three losses, and two ties.

I performed the same exercise, and came up with just a slightly different score: 5-4-2 for the Giants. But I got there in a significantly different way.

Cliff Corcoran and Jay Jaffe rate the Giants better at catcher, second base, shortstop, third base, right field, and in the starting rotation; worse at first base, left field, and center field; and they score a draw at DH/bench and relief pitching.

In a sense, this means it’s actually not 6-3-2, because starting pitching should obviously count for more than one position; the starting pitcher in a particular game is more likely to determine the outcome of the game than your average position player. So this analysis really leads to something more like 7-3-2, right? Big mismatch.

Don’t worry, Royals fans — I’ve got some good news!

One, there’s an obvious problem with this sort of analysis (a problem I’m sure Corcoran and Jaffe are well aware of): All edges aren’t equal. If you’ve got Barry Bonds, your advantage at that position quite likely balances at least two disadvantages at other positions.

Except in this case — sorry, Royals fans — we’ll not find anything so extreme. The Royals do have a huge edge in left field, but the Giants have a sizable edge at catcher (sorry again). If we accept the analysis, the number of edges really does favor the Giants.

But here’s the other good news: This specific analysis might be flawed.

The last time the Royals were in the World Series, the Cardinals were heavily favored. As Bill James wrote the following winter, USA Today published “a chart showing that St. Louis had an edge at every position except third base. Pete Rose said that the Cardinals would win in four straight.”

Over the course of the next few hundred words — and granted, he was blessed with the hindsight that included the Royals outscoring the Cardinals 28 to 13 over seven games — Bill obliterated USA Today’s chart. Here’s the part that’s really stuck with me over the years:

McGee’s career season was 1985. In 1984 and 1986, Willie Wilson played at least as well as McGee, probably a touch better.

Bill mentions second base, too, where USA Today gave the edge to Tommie Herr over Frank White. Same exact thing. Herr played his best in 1985, while Frank was down some. But White played significantly better than Herr in both 1984 and 1986.

Abilities, not statistics. Bill again:

We’ve got the benefit of 1986 statistics, which allows us to confirm the wisdom of Bill’s analysis. We’ve also got the benefit of 2015 projections, which allows us to examine not just the 2014 statistics of the players, but also those players’ abilities. As measured imperfectly, to be sure. But would you rather have an imperfect measure, or no measure at all?

SI.com gives edges to Joe Panik over Omar Infante and Brandon Crawford over Alcides Escobar. But the projections for these four players do not support those analyses. Yes, Panik and Crawford had the better seasons. But abilities-wise, these are draws.

SI.com also gives an edge to Eric Hosmer over Brandon Belt ... based on what, exactly? Hosmer’s last month? I wouldn’t even call this one a draw; Belt’s clearly got the edge if you believe next season’s projection.

I agree with the other positions, except DH/bench, which SI.com calls a draw. Uh, no. The Royals’ bench, at least as utilized by Ned Yost, consists almost entirely of Jarrod Dyson, plus the occasional pinch hitter when the Series shifts to San Francisco. Meanwhile, the Giants have an edge at DH, with Mike Morse over Billy Butler. What’s more, Bochy’s simply more willing to use his bench, while Yost will likely refuse to pinch hit for Butler with Josh Willingham, or for Mike Moustakas with Christian Colon (or whomever). Bochy has the better bench and he’s going to use it. Clear edge for the Giants.

So before we get to the pitchers, SI.com has it 5-3-1 for the Giants and I’ve got it 5-2-2 for the Giants. Still a big advantage!

Oh, but the pitchers ...

SI.com’s gives an edge to the Giants’ starters, and calls the bullpens a draw.

That’s not what the projections say, at all. The projections for the eight likely starting pitchers gives the Royals a big edge, and the projections for the key relief pitchers gives the Royals a huge edge.

Which makes it 5-4-2, still for the Giants ... except starting pitchers should be disproportionately balanced. Which makes it (approximately!) 5-5-2 ... and suddenly it’s easy to see why the Royals are actually slight favorites. Sure, there are some sentimental bettors. But let’s talk about abilities. Yes, the Giants won the World Series two years. Yes, the Royals probably overachieved some this year. But does anyone remember last year?

Last year, the Royals outscored their opponents by 47 runs.

Last year, the Giants were outscored by 62 runs.

Abilities. Not one season’s statistics.

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