Week 3 NFL pick 'em

September 20, 2018

Last Week: 7-9

Picks against the spread this season: 15-16-1

Home teams shown in bold. Odds taken from Odds Shark.

Cleveland (-3) vs. New York Jets

This is THE WEEK. It has to be. Open up those victory fridges & celebrate, Cleveland.

Pick: Cleveland (-3)

Minnesota (-16.5) vs. Buffalo

Prediction: Nobody on the Bills decides to retire at halftime.

Kidding aside, no matter the result, this game should be good for rookie QB Josh Allen. Although the results probably won't look pretty, he will learn a lot playing against an elite defense in a hostile environment.

Pick: Minnesota (-16.5)

Carolina (-3) vs. Cincinnati

Ron Rivera called out his defense after last Sunday's loss to the Falcons. I think they respond to that challenge and win by a touchdown.

Pick: Carolina (-3)

Baltimore (-5) vs. Denver

The Broncos are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 road games. The Ravens don't have to face AJ Green. I'll take Baltimore.

Pick: Baltimore (-5)

Green Bay (-3) vs. Washington

Alex Smith vs. Aaron Rodgers is always a fun storyline.

Pick: Green Bay (-3)

Philadelphia (-6.5) vs. Indianapolis

Carson Wentz is back, and that is good news for the Eagles and for the NFL. This will give Philly a much-needed spark after a difficult loss to Tampa Bay last week.

Pick: Philadelphia (-6.5)

Houston (-6) vs. New York Giants

In a battle of winless teams, this game stays close throughout. Odell Beckham Jr. should have a big afternoon.

Pick: New York Giants (+6)

Atlanta (-3) vs. New Orleans

This seems like one of those games that *should* be high-scoring, but my gut is telling me to take the under.

Pick: New Orleans (+3)

Miami (-3) vs. Oakland

Ladies and gentlemen, your 3-0..... Miami Dolphins?

Pick: Miami (-3)

Kansas City (-6.5) vs. San Francisco

A matchup between poor defenses and exciting young quarterbacks. Yes, please.

Pick: Kansas City (-6.5)

Jacksonville (-6.5) vs. Tennessee

Letdown game or not, I have a hard time seeing Jacksonville drop this one. They lost both games to Tennessee last year, so that will give them even more incentive to bring it.

Pick: Jacksonville (-6.5)

Los Angeles Rams (-7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Seven points is a lot against a talented Chargers team, and Rivers tends to play well as a big underdog.

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (+7)

Chicago (-5.5) vs. Arizona

How many weeks until the Cardinals give Josh Rosen the reigns to the offense? It's tough to watch Bradford lead that offense right now, and the Bears are confident.

Pick: Chicago (-5.5)

Seattle (-1.5) vs. Dallas

I'm not saying Seattle got embarrassed on Monday night, but the performance (especially by the offensive line) wasn't great. With the 12th Man helping them out, they get their first win this week.

Pick: Seattle (-1.5)

New England (-6.5) vs. Detroit 

I'm actually surprised that the spread isn't higher for this one. Patriots take it in a rout, and Josh Gordon catches a TD.

Pick: New England (-6.5)

Pittsburgh (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay

One of these weeks, FitzMagic will end. This week is not that week.

Pick: Tampa Bay (+1.5)