Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Top Week 14 fantasy football matchups: Start Winston against the Saints

Published Dec. 10, 2015 8:21 a.m. ET

John Halpin

Through 13 weeks, our Position vs. Fantasy Defensive Points Allowed tool has become a strong tool to identify good matchups. Now it's playoff time for most of you, and don't want to get caught missing any details or advantageous situations.

As always, please remember that the players listed are mostly meant to be borderline guys, who need reasons for you to play or bench them. You won't see recommendations to start LeSean McCoy and Antonio Brown, because you should always start McCoy and Brown. If a player is close to the start/sit fence, we'll push him one way or the other.

Note: The fantasy points per game (FPPG) referenced below are from FOXSports.com standard leagues.

Thursday game: Vikings at Cardinals

Quarterbacks

Stay away: Derek Carr, Raiders (vs. Broncos)

In Week 5, Carr was 26-of-39 for 249 yards, one touchdown and one interception against the Broncos. The Raiders visit Denver this week, and Carr could be in for a step down from that mediocre performance against a Bronco D that allows a league-low 11.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.

Also:

Matt Ryan has been fantasy's QB20 for the season, but since many of you drafted him as a starter, we thought you might need a reminder to avoid him versus the Panthers, who rank fifth with just 14.2 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

Play, play, play: Jameis Winston, Bucs (vs. Saints)

This season's best matchup tool has been to PLAY EVERYONE AGAINST THE SAINTS!!! Sean Payton's crew remains dead last against opposing quarterbacks, allowing 23.7 FPPG after getting lit up by Cam Newton in Week 13. Winston is a top-10 QB play for this home matchup.

Also:

Ryan Tannehill threw just 19 times against the Ravens last week, but it figures that he'll air things out more against a Giants' defense that ranks 30th with 19.7 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

Running backs

Stay away: Latavius Murray, Raiders (vs. Broncos)

The Bronco defense may rank 15th with 18.1 FPPG allowed to opposing backs, but it has also permitted a league-low 3.5 yards per carry, and that's bad for a volume guy like Murray. I've got Murray at RB25 for the week â flex, if you must.

Also:

Titans RBs Antonio Andrews and David Cobb each carried 13 times in Week 13, but neither did much with the workload, and now they'll face a Jets' defense that ranks second with 13.3 FPPG allowed to opposing runners. No, thanks.

Play, play, play: Ameer Abdullah, Lions (vs. Rams)

If I keep saying "Abdullah is going to bust a long one soon," I'll eventually be right (I think). Abdullah has carried 41 times for 174 yards over his last three games, and gets a road matchup with an injury-ravaged Rams' defense that ranks 25th with 19.5 FPPG allowed to opposing running backs. He's going to bust a long one soon ...

Also:

Shaun Draughn has been getting all the work for the Niners - 78 touches over the last four games. Against a Browns' defense that has given up 21.5 FPPG to opposing backs, Draughn again looks like a good bet. He's especially valuable in PPR formats, as he's had 22 receptions over that four-game span.

Wide receivers

Stay away: Kamar Aiken, Ravens (vs. Seahawks)

Richard Sherman, meet a nice, competent player who's been doing yeoman work as the Ravens' top wideout even though he has no business in that role. Aiken has gone 12-148-1 in Matt Schaub's two starts, but is likely to have a long day against the resurgent Legion of Boom, who rank third with 16.6 FPPG allowed to opposing wideouts.

Also:

Yes, we're mentioning the Raiders again, as the Broncos have allowed just 11.1 FPPG to opposing wide receivers, and that should spell trouble for the Cooper/Crabtree duo. The over-under suggests a team team total of 18 points for the Raiders, tied for the lowest on the board. We know that SOMEONE on the Raiders is probably going to score, but they're all worse bets than usual. I've got Cooper at WR31 and Crabtree at WR33.

Play, play, play: Allen Hurns, Jaguars (vs. Colts)

Hurns (concussion) is back after a one-game absence, and gets a friendly matchup with a Colts' defense that ranks 30th with 27.5 FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers. Hurns has slowed down a bit since his seven-game touchdown streak, but he's in a nice spot to get back on the TD horse.

Also:

Sammy Watkins might be inconsistent, but he's very good, and he'll face a Philly D that ranks dead last with 28.8 FPPG allowed to opposing wideouts.

Doug Baldwin has gone 24-433-6 over his last four games. You never leave the table during a heater like that, right? Baldwin isn't THIS good, but the Ravens are giving up 27.4 FPPG to opposing wide receivers, so you're definitely starting him.

Tight ends

Play, play, play: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Bucs (vs. Saints)

Hey, have you heard the one about the Saints' terrible defense? They've given up the most receptions (6.3), yards (84.7) and fantasy points (13.3) per game to opposing tight ends. Seferian-Jenkins was on a limited snap count last week in his return from a shoulder injury, but he had six targets on just 21 snaps, and should play more in this juicy matchup. If you like to stream tight ends, or simply need a better replacement for Rob Gronkowski or Martellus Bennett, Seferian-Jenkins' Week 14 upside is significant. He's TE8 in my rankings.