Washington Commanders

Redskins at Ravens: Game preview, odds, prediction

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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A first defeat of the 2016 NFL season burst the bubble for the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. But they can rebound by working over a soft Washington Redskins run defense this week.

Young backs will play vital roles in exploiting a Washington D’ ranked 30th in the league on the ground, after the Ravens waved goodbye to veteran Justin Forsett, a 1200-yard rusher in 2014.

He confirmed his release in a good-natured statement on Twitter:

Forsett was a versatile back, able as a blocker and adept catching passes. But he was struggling as a runner without the zone-stretch scheme Gary Kubiak called two seasons ago.

Fortunately, current Baltimore OC Marc Trestman saw Terrance West pick up the slack against the Oakland Raiders in Week 4. The third-year former Towson man scampered his way to 113 yards and a touchdown on the ground against the Silver and Black. He’s set to be supplemented by rookie Kenneth Dixon this week.

The team’s fourth-round pick is back from injury and could add a big-play element to what was a static ground attack until last week. Former Louisiana Tech star Dixon was lauded for his decisive, north-south style by CBS Sports’ Dane Brugler headed into the 2016 NFL draft.

Odds

Line: BAL (-3.5)

Over/Under: 47

Going straight ahead is the best way to wear down a soft Washington front. The Redskins lack the talented bodies along the defensive line to disrupt running plays at their source. Last season’s NFC East champs are also hamstrung by poor tackling at the second level. Middle linebacker Will Compton in particular misses too many stops he should make.

Washington wins on the strength of its offense, specifically a passing game led by erratic quarterback Kirk Cousins. When he’s confident, No. 8 can pick apart any defense. It helps he throws to a deep stable of receivers, including wideouts DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder, as well as tight end Vernon Davis.

But its joker-style tight end Jordan Reed who is the real gem of the Redskins’ offense. This roving matchup nightmare has a nose for the ball, as he proved in record-setting fashion in a win over the Cleveland Browns last week, per Elias Sports, via ESPN Stats & Info:

Reed’s exceptional short-area quickness, long frame and flanker-style route-running make him a problem at every level of coverage. Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees has to solve the puzzle Cousins’ clutch target poses.

He’d be wise to lock Reed up in double coverage on every play. Fortunately, developing linebacker C.J. Mosley can help, as can fellow ‘backer Zach Orr. One or both should jam Reed at the line, while a rush end drops underneath to keep the tight end bracketed.

Of course, it’s a risk focusing so much on Reed and daring Jackson and Co. to beat you. But the gamble is worth taking, particularly if Pees can confuse Cousins with some sophisticated pressure concepts.

It’s something the NFL‘s top-ranked defense has done well this season. Pees has been especially fond of using psycho fronts that put one down lineman in a three-point stance surrounded by multiple standing defenders who will either rush or bail into coverage.

Timmy Jernigan, the best inside pass-rusher on the team, is usually the lone down lineman. He’s a good bet to dominate the interior against a Washington O-line suspect in the middle.

Jernigan and nose tackle Brandon Williams will also be crucial in putting the Redskins in unfavorable, pass-first down-and-distance situations. They are both formidable against the run, something likely to deter Washington head coach Jay Gruden and coordinator Sean McVay from keeping the ball on the ground.

The pair often shun balance and put games on Cousins’ shoulders, even though Matt Jones had 22 carries against the Browns. But if Jones can’t get going against Williams and Jernigan, it won’t take long for Gruden and McVay to go pass-heavy.

Then Cousins will be in the situations where Pees can send pressure creatively.

Pick: Ravens 23, Redskins 14

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