National Football League

NFL odds: How Tom Brady has fared in wild-card games and more Eagles-Bucs

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 1:27 p.m. ET

For 20 years, Tom Brady has dazzled the NFL as one of the most prolific quarterbacks to ever play the game.

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles meet this Super Wild Card Weekend, it will mark the 19th time that Brady has suited up as a starter in the postseason. Undoubtedly, he is the greatest winner in NFL history, but as gamblers, we know winning straight up (SU) and winning against the spread (ATS) are two totally different things.

For that reason, we took a deep dive into how TB12 has fared from a gambling perspective, especially in wild-card games.

This weekend, Brady finds himself in a situation that he is rarely in — a wild-card game. Out of his 18 playoff appearances, this is only the sixth time he's playing in the first round.

Per FOX Sports Research, In Brady's previous five wild-card games, he is 2-3 ATS, including a non-cover against the Washington Football Team last season as 10-point favorites. In fact, the last time TB12 covered during wild card weekend was fifteen seasons ago! Obviously, that dates back to Brady's New England years, but still.

And since Brady took his talents south, all he does is win. In fact, he brought the Buccaneers a Super Bowl in his first season with the team. Due to his success, do bettors usually blindly wager on the G.O.A.T. in the postseason? And if so, do oddsmakers inflate the spread to counter?

For that information, we turned to FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor.

"When it comes to a ‘Brady tax’, we normally do inflate the line," the oddsmaker explained. "But, the NFC is so wide open this year that as soon as Tampa Bay faces any of the division winners, the tax will disappear, and home field will become more important."

Speaking of home-field advantage, the Eagles will head to Tampa Bay for this wild-card matchup on FOX.

In their Week 6 game against Philadelphia, T.B. escaped with a 28-22 win. But, the final score was not indicative of the game, as the Bucs led from the jump. Now, at 13-4, Tampa Bay enters this game as an 8.5-point favorite at FOX Bet.

Over his playoff career, Tom Brady is 8-11 ATS and 16-3 SU when he's favored by at least 7 points.

From a coaching perspective, Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians is 3-4 against the spread and 5-2 straight up in playoff games during his career. Arians is also 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU in wild-card games.

This will be the fifth meeting between the Eagles and Buccaneers in the playoffs in the Super Bowl era. So far, the two teams have split that series evenly, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 SU.

It's worth noting, too, that opposite Brady in this matchup is second-year QB Jalen Hurts who will make his very first NFL postseason start. Fun fact: Quarterbacks making their NFL playoff debuts are 13-28 ATS and 10-31 SU since 2002.

Super Wild Card Weekend between these two NFC teams will be one for the ages. Are you backing the legend himself, or will you be betting on the young, upstart Eagles to cover?

Get in on the betting action now at FOX Bet!

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