National Football League

NFL odds: 49ers-Packers latest odds, picks, how lines have moved

Updated Jan. 22, 2022 5:53 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

As the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers get set for a Saturday night postseason tilt at 10-degree Lambeau Field (8 p.m. ET, FOX), the betting market sits at Packers -5.5 with a total of 47.5 at most American sportsbooks, including at FOX Bet.

But this line has been a rollercoaster over the last week and has easily been the most fascinating one to follow of the four NFL Divisional Round games.

Multiple shops posted their lines late Sunday night, two days before news broke that Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had a "slight" right shoulder sprain after being decked in the second quarter against Dallas.

You already know the line was on the move shortly after word got out.  

"I had us open the lowest in the market at Packers -4; I don’t think they should be favored by more than a field goal," Circa Sports sportsbook manager Chris Bennett told FOX Sports. "After the Garoppolo stuff became public, we wrote Green Bay money up to -6, then San Francisco resistance showed around -6 and -6.5, which you expect.

"This line is still a little confusing," Bennett added. "I thought the top six teams in the NFC were pretty evenly matched. Granted, the Packers are the best of the bunch, but I don't feel like the gap is that wide between them and the Niners.

"I’ve been sort of annoyed with myself for how I booked the game earlier in the week. Opening it up Packers -4 and getting as high as -6.5 is not ideal. And then, naturally, I took a real big bet on San Francisco +6.5. I wanted a bet, but it was more than I wanted."

When you’re booking big bets like Bennett and his crew are, you must always think three steps ahead. When Garoppolo didn’t throw any footballs at Tuesday’s walk-through practice, Bennett was preparing for the possibility that rookie quarterback Trey Lance might get the start under center.

There are notable numerical drop-offs from Patrick Mahomes to Chad Henne in Kansas City and Tom Brady to Blaine Gabbert in Tampa Bay; oddsmakers will tell you that Mahomes and Brady are worth five or six points toward the point spread if they’re unable to play.

But the true numerical difference between Garoppolo and Lance is mystifying.

"It's not just about how good the starter is, it's also what we think of the backup," Bennett explained. "And I don't think we have the backup figured out in this case because he's a rookie, and he's only had a little bit of playing time.

"We kind of have something to draw on. It was the game when the Niners faced the Texans near the end of the season. At the beginning of the week, the presumption was that Garoppolo was going to start. San Francisco was favored by 15 in the market. Information got out on Tuesday that Garoppolo was hurt and might not start, so the line got as low as 11.5. Then it closed 14 at kickoff with Lance.

"It really wasn't a big difference (-15 to -14) in that scenario."

So… Garoppolo to Lance is only worth a point? That seems a tad disrespectful to a quarterback that captained his team to the Super Bowl just two seasons ago.

"Garoppolo is not that good," Bennett said. "He has this tendency to make some horrible throws sometimes. Maybe I was too low on the opener, and maybe the right number is 5.5. But the 49ers are a good team. They’re good on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They should be able to come up with creative plays on offense to utilize Deebo Samuel."

Bennett believes that respected bettors wouldn’t really care if Garoppolo or Lance started and that they’re more concerned with taking the right team at the right number. He would have never wanted to go much higher than Green Bay -7: "There would be support for San Francisco at anything over 7, no matter who starts at quarterback."

As for the weather and the legend of Lambeau? Temperatures are expected to be in the single digits for most of the game, but it doesn’t look like snow or heavy will make an appearance. As we’ve discussed in this column, frigidly cold weather doesn’t impact the total, but 30-plus mile per hour winds could drop a total four or five points.

"Whenever you have games in locations where weather could be a significant factor, I usually try to be on the low end of the [total over/under] market," Bennett said. "We took money over 47 and under 47.5, and that two-way action is good sign. I’m feeling pretty confident about the total where it’s at."

And if you’re thinking that bone-chillingly cold Lambeau Field is worth a whole lot to the point spread, stop right there.

"I don’t really assign any extra value to Lambeau," Bennett admitted. "Maybe there’s some additional perk, but Rodgers is 5-3 all-time at home in the postseason. Home field isn’t worth a whole lot in the NFL anymore."

Why?

"The referees have become very neutral in terms of calls favoring one side or the other. The best example of that is the pass interference no-call in that Saints-Rams NFC Championship game a few years ago when the call went against New Orleans at home."

So what's the bet? I hate how much I love the Packers (-5.5 at FOX Bet) in this game. I’m going heads up with the wise guys because, as Bennett alluded to, I don’t think Garoppolo is all that special. And he’s one body slam away on that banged up throwing shoulder from spending the rest of the night in the locker room.

Green Bay is getting healthier by the minute with left tackle David Bakhtiari, top corner Jaire Alexander and linebacker Za’Darius Smith all expected to play together for the first time this season.

And oh yeah — Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the planet.

Pick: Packers (-5.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5.5 points

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week, including this week's "Stack the Cash" progressive jackpot on Saturday's matchup between the 49ers and Packers! Just make your picks, and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!

share

Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

National Football League

Gambling

San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay Packers

NFL - San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers - 01/23/2022

Sam Panayotovich